It’s A Different Grand This Time Around

By Todd Ceisner
BassFan Editor

The weather report suggests it’s a great time to be outside in northeastern Oklahoma. Spring is just around the corner and the seasonal change is evident everywhere you look.

What’s lagging behind, though, is the condition of the water at Grand Lake, where the lingering effects of the massive flooding that hit the region in late December are still evident. It was a cause for concern for the 55 competitors who earned their way into this week’s Bassmaster Classic as they encountered cold, muddy water during practice last weekend.

According to the National Weather Service, Tulsa received nearly 62 inches of rain in 2015, making it the city’s wettest year since 1973. In November and December alone, 15.81 inches of rain fell on the area. By comparison, the total rainfall for November and December for 2011 through 2014 was 16.54 inches.

As a result, Grand Lake and many of the neighboring fisheries are experiencing the fallout of a very wet winter.

Grand came up 12 1/2 feet in 3 days in December, flooding nearby roads, yards and houses. Presently, the lake level is back on par with its target readings for this time of year and has been since the last week in January, but water clarity remains an issue – it was muddy from end to end during practice – and has been a hot topic this week among anglers. There’s talk that it could take months, or least until the water warms up significantly, for the stain to dissipate.

“So much weird stuff has happened in the last year,” said former Elite Series pro Bobby Myers, who has fished Grand Lake his whole life. “It went through a cycle it’s never gone through before.”

Nearly half of the competitors in this year’s field will be competing in their second Classic at Grand, but they’re encountering a lake in a rarely seen state. There’s scant amount of cleaner water available in the Elk River so expect that area to receive a bunch of pressure and attention come Friday.

“They’re going to see a Grand they’ve never seen before,” said Elite Series pro Fred Roumbanis, who lives in the Tulsa suburb of Bixby. “That’s the cool thing about it because of the way the weather’s been.”

Speaking of cool, BassFans will recall the 2013 Classic, when the weather conditions changed drastically and frequently in the days leading up to the start of the tournament. Sleet, snow and ice storms popped up across the region and water temperatures were consistently in the 40s, but the water clarity was suitable for a wide array of techniques, including a jerkbait, which is a known producer at Grand in cold-water conditions.

This week, competitors are getting the other end of the spectrum. Temperatures topped out in the low 70s during practice last weekend, but the water in some locales remained in the 40s, due in part to a steady wind. The warm weather will continue this week and many competitors are hoping the sustained mild trend will heat up the water and, in turn, prompt some fish to shift into pre-spawn feeding mode.

Fishing-wise, it appears this is going to be a stark contrast to the 2013 Classic, which was won by Cliff Pace with a 3-day total of 54-12.

“The bar for this classic has been lowered compared to 2013,” said 2008 Classic champion Alton Jones, who’s competing in his 17th career Classic this week. “You’re going to have to slow down and play your game and grind it out. This tournament will be a grind. You’re going to watch the winner grind it out.

"Nobody will pull up on a spot and catch 100 fish a day and win it. You need a pattern with multiple places to go and have two or three key baits figured out.”

Before getting into more about the bite, here's the lowdown on the lake itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake name: Grand Lake O' the Cherokees (Grand)
> Type of water: Lowland impoundment
> Surface acres: 46,500
> Primary structure/cover: Points, ledges, some laydowns, riprap banks, tons of docks and brush piles
> Primary forage: Gizzard and threadfin shad, crawfish, bluegill, crappie
> Average depth: 35 feet
> Species: Largemouths, smallmouths and spotted bass
> Minimum length: 14 inches
> Reputation: A super lake for numbers with potential for 20-pound-plus bags, but big bites can be hard to pattern
> Weather: After a streak of frigid Classics, B.A.S.S. (and Tulsa organizers) have lucked out as the forecast has loads of sunshine, light winds and only a chance of rain on Sunday.
> Water Temp: Mid 40s in morning, warming into low 50s by afternoon; some pockets/coves are warmer than others
> Water visibility/color: Severely stained to muddy; 6 to 10 inches of visibility (or less) is common
> Water level: Back to normal after record flooding in December
> Fish in: 8 to 25 feet
> Fish phase: Mostly winter
> Primary patterns: Crankbaits, jigs, spinnerbaits, vibrating jigs, jerkbaits
> Winning weight: 56 pounds
> Cut weight (Top 25 after 2 days): 23 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 3 for Grand
> Biggest factor: Water temperature. It’s unlikely the water will clean up a significant amount by Friday so if the water warms up, that could activate more fish.
> Biggest decision: Whether to camp near cleaner water or run around and try to pick off fish in dirtier water
> Wildcard: Lower end. It's typically where the big ones live, but it's the dirtiest part of the lake this week.
> Lake level: To get an updated look at the water levels at Grand Lake, click here.

Here’s a bird’s eye view of Grand Lake, complete with depth contours, courtesy of Navionics:

Temp & Clarity are Key

Granted, the forecast for this week will be conducive for fans to follow their favorite angler around on the water or wander around Tulsa and back and forth between the BOK Center (weigh-ins) and Cox Business Center (Outdoor Expo), but the lake is still feeling the effects of the weather system that dumped a massive amount of rain on Oklahoma between Christmas and New Year’s Day.

“We’ve had a lot of rain and I’ve been traveling a lot lately and flown over it quite a bit,” Roumbanis said. “The water’s really dirty from one end to the other.”

While the clarity issue probably won’t resolve itself this week, if the water warms up, Roumbanis believes the catch rates could rise with it.

“We’re not fishing for Florida-strain bass here,” he said. “Those northern strains start getting active in 42-degree water. You get into the 50s and they’ll get to feeding. I think it’ll be pretty wide open.

“Whenever you take a lake that’s usually pretty clear and the water gets dirty for a period of time, those fish are dumb. They go from being spooky and real skittish to attacking everything that gets in their way. I think you’ll see a lot of power fishing. I don’t think the water is necessarily high. It’s just dirty.”

Some competitors are wondering if the influx of stained water has shocked some of the fish because they’re become accustomed to the lake being mostly clear due to the presence of zebra mussels.

“I know they’ve got them in here,” said Marty Robinson, who’s preparing for his third Classic and second at Grand. “The lake gets pretty clear in the summer and fall so I think this is a bigger transition for these fish. They’ve probably had to change their feeding habits to adjust to the clear-water conditions. When you have massive rains and it turns it to mud, it’s a bigger shock to these fish.”

Roumbanis agreed, saying the zebra mussels have contributed to the lake’s improved clarity, but with the heavy dose of stain, it’ll force competitors to resort to typical muddy-water tactics to trigger bites.

“In the mid-lake section, you’re going to see a lot of shallow water tactics like square-bills and spinnerbaits,” he said, “and I really think you’ll see the Wiggle Wart come into play.”

Mike’s Take

Elite Series pro Mike McClelland competed in the 2013 Classic at Grand and won an Elite Series event there in 2006. He has plenty of experience at the lake in March and while the weather may be favorable, the fishing can be downright difficult.

“In March, it can be some of the coldest, dirtiest water we’re faced with at Grand,” he said. “I fished a lot there in March and have kept track of tournament results and unless conditions are favorable and the clarity is normal, March can be the toughest time to fish the lake.

“It’s going to be a scenario that due to the mild trend we’ve had and what I’ve witnessed in these Midwestern lakes, the water might be cold enough where fish don’t want to cooperate, but I believe lot of fish have to be shallow. Even though fishing might be tough and numbers are down, I think there could be some big bags caught. If you figure out that right little twist, you could sack ‘em up.”

McClelland doesn’t expect every angler to bag a limit each day just due to the nature of the lake’s current state, but he predicts it’ll be won out of shallow water.

“A lot of guys will get on the bank and cover water and some guys will happen into some good schools,” he said.

Shallow’s the Ticket

Myers is convinced that despite the cooler water temperatures, there’s a good-sized group of fish that may have already moved up or is on its way.

“I don’t think I’d fish any deeper than 15 feet the whole event,” he said. “I think it’s going to help the guys who are naturally shallow-water fishermen. Guys who like to fish off the bank will still catch fish, but the reality is two-fold. Dirty water warms faster as soon as the sun comes out. The reason it stayed dirty is it’s been cold. As it warms up, it’ll clean up.

“Bass naturally want to get shallow. It’s in their nature to want to get shallow in order to effectively feed better. We all know they can sense and feel things, but the No. 1 thing for bass is eyesight. They need to get shallower to see better and if the water warms up, they’ll want to get up there.”

With the water as dirty as it is, Myers feels that the fish won’t be bunched up like they were during the ’13 Classic.

“When they were here last time, the fish were caught more in a wintertime pattern,” he said. “You had bigger groups of fish congregated in one area or on one pattern. We’ll still will see that, but you’ll also see more scattered fish.”

A couple weeks ago, Myers said he fished Lake Hudson, which is separated from Grand by the Pensacola Dam. He noted the clarity was just as poor as some have described Grand this week. He moved to some cleaner water and started throwing an umbrella rig, a tactic not permitted in the Classic.

“The fish I caught were the fattest, most gorged largemouth I’ve caught in my life,” he said. “They are so fat and thick it was unbelievable. I thought, ‘If they’re like this on Hudson, they have to be like that on Grand.’ You’re going to see some fat, thick, healthy fish.”

‘They Thought I Was Sandbagging’

When Zack Birge first heard the Classic was returning to Grand Lake and it would be held during the first week of March, his eyes got big and wide.

“The first thought I had was it’s going to be a slugfest,” said Birge, a native of Blanchard, Okla., and 2015 FLW Tour Rookie of the Year.

Birge knows what a slugfest on Grand looks like after winning the BFL tournament there on March 14, 2015 with an astounding 29-00 stringer. There were four other 20-pound bags caught in the event, but Birge’s was nearly 6 pounds better than the runner-up.

“I’ve never caught that big of a bag on that lake,” he said. “Other guys were saying they couldn’t remember a bag that big in 15 years. I’d found a little something in practice and thought it had potential for 21 or 22 pounds.”

He relied on a 1/4-ounce Excalibur Xr50 lipless crankbait, which took some of his competitors by surprise, especially in a tournament when the umbrella rig was permitted.

“Most people don’t believe me when I told them what I caught them on,” he said. “They thought I was sandbagging. I had to convince them. Normally, it’s a football jig, a Shad Rap or a jerkbait that wins at Grand in the spring. We could throw an umbrella rig, but they weren’t on it. The fish I caught were in shallow-water feeding mode. We had warm weather and some rain and they were far back in a pocket. It was definitely a magical day.”

Birge thinks with the way the weather has been lately, the first week of March could produce some stellar fishing.

“It has potential to be crazy,” Birge said. “There’s been a lot of water running through it and it’s still really dirty, but it has so many fish in it.”

Stats, Etc.

History indicates that early March can be an exciting time to be fishing at Grand Lake, provided the conditions are favorable.

Time will tell if this year’s event will exceed the catch rates of the 2013 Classic when 548 fish were caught with 86 limits carried to the scales. The Top-25 cut weight after day 2 in 2013 was 25-15.

For some historical perspective on what Grand is capable of producing during the early part of March, FLW’s BFL circuit and the local Nichols Marine Team Series served as good sources.

Between 2005 and 2015, Grand Lake has hosted eight 1-day BFL tournaments. All of the events fell between March 5-18 on the calendar. It took at least 17-08 to win each one and last year (March 14) Birge hammered 29-00 for his win.

Oklahoma native and local favorite Jason Christie won three of those BFLs in March between 2006-08 before he graduated up to the FLW Tour.

On March 3, 2013, on the weekend following the Classic, co-angler Billy Lemon caught a 12-03 largemouth to break the Grand Lake record in a Nichols Marine Team Series tournament. The record catch was part of his and partner Corey Smith’s winning bag of 24.95.

The year before, a bag of 23.49 took the win in the early spring Nichols Marine event.

Notes from the Field

Following are practice notes from a few of the anglers who'll be competing this week.

Marty Robinson
“I think with all the floods, they’ve been trying to get the water down and they’re moving water through it so I think the whole body of water is kind of mixed up. Instead of the surface being able to warm up, they’re pulling more cold water in and mixing with what’s here. The water has to warm up for it clear up.

“Obviously, everybody is going to try to run around and find clearer water. There is clearer water in a certain section of the lake and I’m sure there will be a lot of pressure there. A lot of guys will fish it and you can get bit in there. There might be a couple guys who do decent out of there, but I don’t see it being won in that section. I think it’ll be won out of dirty water where someone has figured something out.”

Jordan Lee
“It was not good. I had one bass bite on day 1, two bites on day 2 and six bites on day 3. It’s been a challenge. The water’s cold and muddy, the two toughest water conditions you can have. I like fishing muddy water and back home they bite in it, but I don’t usually fish this cold of water.

“If it was in the mid 50s it’d be a different story. You could get more bites. I’ve seen it happen plenty of times like this. The wind’s blowing so hard out there, too, even some out of the south, but it hasn’t warmed the water up. If it were calm and sunny it’d be a different story.

“I know there are a couple creeks with a little clearer water, but I’m going to stay away from it. A lot of the field will be doing that. If I can get a few bites in the mud – the whole lake’s muddy – so I’m going to stay in the muddy water and cover water. It’s hard for me to fish slow when it’s dirty like it is and cold. That might be a good option, but it’s hard when you’re not getting many bites.”

Alton Jones
“I’ve never seen Grand Lake muddy all the way to the dam. I wasn’t expecting that. Because of that, I had to adjust my practice strategy. I was basically starting from scratch. A lot of baits I’d planned on throwing are sight-based, but they need to be able to see it to hit it, so that’s taken some weapons out of the arsenal.

“Sometimes it’s not what you expect them to be doing. They don’t read about what we think they should be doing. We have to figure out what they’re doing and as I’ve gotten a more complete look at what’s happening, a lot of places I haven’t tried simply because what I think the fish are doing I haven’t had a chance to check out.

“I came out of those 3 days with some confidence and I feel like I understand what the fish are doing, at least the ones I found. It’s just a matter of trying to expand on it.”

James Watson
“I’ve seen the lake muddy that far down before, but it was in the summer. I’ve never been here when it’s this colored this early in the year. Fishing shallow so far has been unproductive.

“My hope is that the water warms and that it will make the lake fish a little bigger than it did in practice. I don’t expect it to fish big, though. I was really geared up since qualifying and all that’s been going through my brain is jerkbait, jerkbait, jerkbait. There will be some people that catch them on it, but as far all of the damage being done that way, you can throw it out the window.

“If somebody is willing to fish super slow with a jig, I applaud them because I think you could do some damage on a jig. My opinion is that it’ll be won with moving baits.”

Billy McCaghren
“The conditions are way different from what I’d anticipated. I don’t think they’re terrible, but I think we’re on the brink of it breaking out. One of the hardest ways to catch fish is out of cold, muddy water. This is a really good lake to catch them in cold water, but the clarity needs to be way better than what it is.

“I’m enjoying the warm weather, but I’d take freezing weather and clear water over what we have now, but I think there’s a good chance that during the tournament things could get right. The few you do catch they’re not starving, that’s for sure. We just have to hope we get that one day when it all gets right.”

Bill Lowen
“As of right now, it’s not much different than 2013. Back then, I had the same deal going on and the weather jacked it up. Now, the big ones are biting so it’s going to be interesting.

“I don’t get a lot of bites – I’m getting 10 to 15 bites day, but they’re all 3- to 6-pound class fish. It could be good. I’m excited. I just remember in ’13 looking out the window and watching the snow come down and thinking, ‘This is going away.’

Greg Hackney
“This water is not muddy. It has a funny color to it; it’s almost cloudy. The only thing that would make it perfect is if it’s 55 degrees. At 45, it’s going to change how it’s going to fish.

“The bite was better in ’13. Who knows, maybe it’d turn out to be a slugfest if it was clear. It’s very different and very challenging. I have a little bit of confidence. This might be my worst Classic practice ever, but maybe that’s not a bad thing.

“The issue I have is I have too much going on. I’m not going to have a lot of options. They’ll be big ones caught, though, that’s for sure.”

Thomas Martens
“It’s been tough for me. I’m on some fish, but I have only a couple spots and I have a feeling that these guys will know where those areas are. I tried to find additional spots, but it’s been hard.

“When I do get bit it’s the right kinds – these fish are fat – but the bites are weird. Even when you get them to eat, you barely hook them.”

Clifford Pirch
“The fishing is pretty tough and I think they’ll catch ‘em. I just hope I do, too. I’m not really locked down on a particular area. I have a couple of techniques where I think I can get them. I just have to keep after it.

“I thought it was muddier (Wednesday) than it had been in a couple areas. The fish are here, but there are just not many options.”

Albert Collins
“I think I got one bite Wednesday. I don’t know what it is. I have a couple things I didn’t go to that I’m going to fish. I’m hardly getting any bites, but when I do it’s a good fish.

“I have a feeling I’m going to be doing a lot of moving around. I think 15 pounds will put me in good shape. These are totally different conditions from 2013 and I wanted to come back so bad. I didn’t get any bites on stuff from before. Temperature-wise, we’re in the same ballpark, but it seems like you have to get the bait on top of them to get a bite.”

Brett Hite
“I think it’s going to be a tough tournament. The water temperature is still colder than I expected it to be. We had a couple nicer days, but then we had some cooler days and some wind.

“The biggest thing that’s holding it back is the water clarity. In 40-degree water, besides the umbrella rig, a jerkbait is the deal, but it’s hard to get them to bite something when there’s 6 inches of visibility. If I can catch five, I think I’ll have a big stringer but I think it’s going to be tougher than it was the last time the Classic was here.”

Jason Christie
“I’d have been a lot better off practicing last Friday and gone back to the house for the rest. The more I practice here, the more things I get in my head and the more ideas I get.

“The fish are where I expected them to be, but it’s been inconsistent. You’ll catch one off something and think, ‘Okay, I got this,’ then run four of those and don’t get a bite, then you move to something else and the same thing happens. I haven’t found that area yet that I feel like I can set down in. I’m not saying I won’t, but I haven’t yet.

“I haven’t seen (these conditions) before. There are some big ones down (by the dam), too. It’s scary because if someone figures out how to catch them, they could have them to themselves because they’ll have no company.”

Greg Vance
“It’s tough fishing right now. I think I have a couple areas where I can catch some fish, but the water’s muddy and the fish aren’t used to it. There are bites to be had, but it’s going to be a grind.

“I’m actually used to muddy, cold water because I fish the Mississippi River a lot, but it’s definitely not easy. I have two areas I’ll stay in for a while and then I’ll have to run and gun.”

John Crews
“There are a couple bites going on, but I’m not sure if it’s the winning deal. We’ll have to see. The water cleared up a lot from Sunday. My confidence level is pretty decent, but it’s been a grind.

“I’m not sure how many patterns are going on, but it’s not many and I think the sun will be a big factor. Having the sun out versus not having it could change a couple things.”

Justin Lucas
“My confidence is not that high. It’s been a really tough practice. The biggest thing will be getting on a good rotation. If you can go down a bank with some fish on it you’ll be all right. If you get on a bad deal, you could not have a fish at noon.”

Greg Vinson
“It’s that time of year and type of place where you can’t put a lot of stock in practice, whether it was good or bad.

“I have some things to key on. The bites are hard to come by, but this lake has good quality fish in it. It’s not going to be a 20 to 30 fish a day sort of thing. Six to eight bites is a good day for me. I’m just hoping I learned enough to be more efficient.”

Brandon Lester
“I had one bite Wednesday and it was a 5-pounder. I also fished different stuff. I had one good day of practice and I haven’t been back to those places yet.

“I think it’ll fish pretty small. I feel confident, but I’ve been trying to look for a backup plan and I just haven’t found it. Right now, I have all my eggs in one basket. Sometimes that’s a good thing. Sometimes it’s not.”

Mark Davis
“It’s a grind. It looks to me like a majority of the guys are doing the same things and it’s going to fish kind of small. I’ve been wracking my brain trying to figure something else out. I didn’t, but the guy who did will probably win.

“I’m fairly confident, but this is going to be a tournament that’s going to be a mental deal. You have to stay on your toes because you can go an hour or two without a bite. It’s not a wide-open bite. You can’t run around and catch them everywhere.”

Bobby Lane
“I didn’t figure it’d be a slow as it was. I caught a few and left some out there. I feel like I’m doing the right things to get the right bites, but I don’t want to get in the wrong rotation. You don’t want to go through an area behind a guy who was throwing the same thing.

“I’m going to do a little of everything. I didn’t see anything outstanding in the dirty or cleaner water so I’m going to wing it. I feel good about my plan.”

Top 10 To Watch

> As is customary with the BassFan’s coverage of the Bassmaster Classic, a separate article will be published outlining the staff’s selections for the Top 10 To Watch.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

> The field will blast off starting at 7 a.m. CST at Wolf Creek Park & Boat Ramp (963 N. 16th Street, Grove, OK). Daily weigh-ins will be at the BOK Center (200 South Denver
, Tulsa, OK).‬‬ Doors open at 3:15 p.m. each day.

> The Bassmaster Classic Outdoors Expo will be held at the Cox Business Center (100 Civic Center, 
Tulsa, OK) during the following hours:

> Friday: Noon to 8:00 p.m. (B.A.S.S. Life Members are eligible for the Expo preview session from 10:30 a.m. to noon)
> Saturday: 10 a.m. to 7 p.m.
> Sunday: 10 a.m. to 4 p.m.

Weather Forecast

> Fri., March 4 – Sunny - 65°/44°
- Wind: From the ESE at 5 to 10 mph

> Sat., March 5 – Mostly sunny - 67°/47°
- Wind: From the S at 5 to 10 mph

> Sun., March 6 – Chance of thunderstorms, partly sunny - 65°/53°
- Wind: From the S at 5 to 15 mph