There are two schools of thought when it comes to handicapping a Three Rivers field. One says that luck is a huge factor, because a single 2 1/2- to 3-pound bite, backed up by some keepers, could be enough to make the cut. The other says that a difficult bite prohibits luck and helps the best anglers rise to the top.
There's truth in both. A look back at the 2005 Bassmaster Classic shows luck played a role,
but had very little to do with the ultimate outcome. Winner Kevin VanDam and runner-up Aaron Martens simply figured things out.
A similar scenario will likely play out at this week's Forrest Wood Cup, but don't discount the luck factor. That's because unlike in the Classic, the Top 10 who survive the cut at the Cup all start day 3 with zero weight. That means a 2 1/2- to 3-pound bite on day 3 or 4 could seal a win.
Crossover
This year's Cup field is notable for several reasons, and one is the presence of some big-name pros from the BASS side – Mike Iaconelli, Takahiro Omori, Tommy Biffle and Greg Hackney.
Ike had the best finish of the four at the Classic (5th). But Biffle's no stranger to Cup competition – he finished 2nd in three of them.
Both Ike and Omori have won the Classic.
Of the four, though, Ike's the clear favorite to make the cut. It also wouldn't be a stretch to say he's the all-out favorite to win, since he cut his teeth on northern industrial rivers and even hosts a TV show called City Limits Fishing that focuses on urban fisheries.
Kevin Vida may have a little pattern going, but won't know until he actually starts sticking fish tomorrow.
Former BASS pros and current Cup competitors Stacey King, Luke Clausen, David Walker, Larry Nixon, Ron Shuffield and Jay Yelas fished the Classic. None of their finishes were noteworthy. In fact, Yelas blanked both days.
The Brown Crowd
It's estimated that at least 90% of the fish caught will be smallmouths, and there's a clear separation in the field when it comes to brown fish. There's a further separation between those who can catch brown fish down south, and those who can catch them up north. The two groups don't always intersect.
A good example is Andy Morgan, who's a Tennessee River stud, but seems to struggle any time the tour heads north of the Mason-Dixon.
On the other hand, northern pros like Kevin Vida, Dave Lefebre, Art Ferguson III, Pete Gluszek, Iaconelli, or FLW Series qualifier Nate Wellman seem more capable of coaxing better-than-average bites on northern smallmouth fisheries.
There are crossover pros like Clark Wendlandt, Mark Hardin, Dion Hibdon, David Fritts and Scott Martin, among others, who fare quite well in northern latitudes.
Cup Performance
One of the keys to winning a championship is selecting water not only based on bites, but on how well those bites will hold up to spectator traffic as the tournament progresses.
Could this be David Walker's year?
Some pros just have that championship mojo, and finish in the Top 10 more often than not. BassFan recently published an analysis of past Cup performances by current Cup competitors (click here to read it).
Standouts in the past-performance category are names like Clark Wendlandt (10 Cups, six Top 10s), Kevin Vida (four Cups, three Top 10s) and Anthony Gagliardi (seven Cups, four Top 10s), among others.
Top 10 To Watch
With the above in mind and more, here's BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch at this year's Forrest Wood Cup. In no particular order, they are:
1. Dave Lefebre – A heavy favorite to win the whole thing. Lives a few hours away and considers the Three Rivers one of his home waters. He's made the Top 10 in two Cups and it would be a surprise to see him miss the cut here.
2. Mike Iaconelli – Right there with Lefebre as a heavy favorite. Made the Cup through the Strens and has had his eye on Pittsburgh for well over a year. This is his court, and he can't wait to play.
3. Kevin Vida – A smallmouth expert who seems to turn things up a notch for the Cup. He might have something going, based on his practice report, and is a strong bet to make the Top 10.
4. Shad Schenck – A river rat from Indiana whose tournament roots trace to the Ohio River. He's strong at any river, but given this is the Ohio, he's a heavy favorite to make the Top 10.
5. Sean Hoernke – Spent his pre-practice time up the Yok, which is now off-limits, so he had to re-start for the official practice. But was able to cobble together something decent and seems to be on potential limits. He's a river rat, too.
6. Clark Wendlandt – You can't argue with his numbers – he's finished in the Top 10 in six of 10 Cups. Prefers to power-fish, but can be deadly with his finesse Giggy Head too.
7. Anthony Gagliardi – Another numbers pick who just seems to get things done in the Cup. Can finesse with the best of them, but look for Gags to get a kicker on day 1 or 2.
A lot of BassFans wrote in to voice their support of BFL All-American champion Adam Wagner.
8. David Walker – Finished 14th at the Pittsburgh Classic. Knows rivers, knows smallmouths, and this could be his year.
9. Scott Martin – Has some momentum after his emotional Champlain win and is sort of a gut pick, but certainly more than capable of reaching the Top 10.
10. Pete Gluszek – A New Jersey pro and smallmouth specialist who's jacked up to fish this Cup. Can catch them when the going gets real tough, like it'll be this week.
Others To Watch
> Mark Hardin – A Georgia pro who sticks 'em up north. His finesse skills, perfected on Lanier, should pay big dividends this week.
> Larry Nixon – Won a low-weight Classic on the Ohio River, but caught less than 3 pounds at the '05 Classic here.
> Tommy Biffle – Has finished 2nd in three Cups and can be deadly on rivers, but that's more when he can flip. It'll be interesting to watch how he attacks the Three Rivers.
> Bob Harkness – The TBF national champion from nearby West Virginia. Put his time in on the Three Rivers and lost his father suddenly a week ago. Fishing with emotion this week.
> Adam Wagner – The BFL All-American winner from Tennessee has strong support from BassFans.
> Scott Nielsen – Perhaps the cream of the Western Series crop.
> Ron Shuffield – Coming off his best season in years.
> Brent Ehrler – Ranked 3rd in the world and is a former Cup champion.
> Art Ferguson III – A smallmouth specialist. Can he catch them on this tough-bite river?
Notable
> Three of the five pros who've won the Cup and the Classic are fishing this week – Clausen, Hibdon and David Fritts.
> To read BassFan's Cup Scouting Report, which includes a full schedule of activities and events, click here.
> The FLW Outdoors fantasy fishing game does not include the Forrest Wood Cup. FLW will crown the million-dollar winner, based on the regular season, this Saturday.
Weather Forecast
Here's the weather forecast for the tournament.
> Thurs., July 30 - AM Clouds/PM Sun - 79°/69°
- Wind: From the SW at 9 mph
> Fri., July 31 - Scattered T-Storms - 75°/64°
- Wind: From the SW at 8 mph
> Sat., Aug. 1 - Partly Cloudy - 81°/65°
- Wind: From the W/SW at 5 mph
> Sun., Aug. 2 - Isolated T-Storms - 79°/64°
- Wind: From the S/SW at 7 mph
2009 Forrest Wood Cup Field
Tracy Adams -- Wilkesboro, NC
Dustin Baker -- Lakeside, CA
Terry Baksay -- Easton, CT
Chris Baumgardner -- Gastonia, NC
Michael Bennett -- Lincoln, CA
Tommy Biffle -- Wagoner, OK
Stetson Blaylock -- Benton, AR
Greg Bohannan -- Rogers, AR
Gabe Bolivar -- Ramona, CA
Terry Bolton -- Jonesboro, AR
Jason Borofka -- Salinas, CA
Brennan Bosley -- Benton, AR
Scott Canterbury -- Springville, AL
Jason Christie -- Park Hill, OK
Luke Clausen -- Gainesville, GA
Ramie Colson, Jr. -- Cadiz, KY
Keith Combs -- Del Rio, TX
David Curtis -- Trinity, TX
Jake Deeds -- El Dorado, AR
Ott Defoe -- Knoxville, TN
John Devere -- Berea, KY
Jim Dillard -- Houston, AR
Craig Dowling -- Grant, AL
Brent Ehrler -- Redlands, CA
Art Ferguson III -- St. Clair Shores, MI
David Fritts -- Lexington, NC
Shinichi Fukae -- Mineola, TX
Anthony Gagliardi -- Prosperity, SC
Pete Gluszek -- Mt. Laurel, NJ
Greg Hackney -- Gonzales, LA
Mark Hardin -- Jasper, GA
Robert Harkness -- Elizabeth, WV
Mike Hawkes -- Sabinal, TX
Dion Hibdon -- Stover, MO
Brett Hite -- Phoenix, AZ
Sean Hoernke -- The Woodlands, TX
Michael Iaconelli -- Runnemede, NJ
Tim Johnson -- Dallas, GA
JT Kenney -- Palm Bay, FL
Stacey King -- Reeds Spring, MO
Koby Kreiger -- Okeechobee, FL
Thanh Le -- Lake Havasu City, AZ
Dave Lefebre -- Union City, PA
Tom Mann, Jr. -- Buford, GA
Scott Martin -- Clewiston, FL
Cody Meyer -- Redding, CA
Andy Montgomery -- Blacksburg, SC
Dan Morehead -- Paducah, KY
Andy Morgan -- Dayton, TN
Scott Nielsen -- Salt Lake City, UT
Larry Nixon -- Bee Branch, AR
Takahiro Omori -- Emory, TX
Craig Powers -- Rockwood, TN
Jacob Powroznik -- Prince George, VA
Greg Pugh -- Cullman, AL
Darrel Robertson -- Jay, OK
Michael Rooke -- Lake Havasu City, AZ
Mark Rose -- Marion, AR
Rusty Salewske -- Alpine, CA
Shad Schenck -- Waynetown, IN
Ron Shuffield -- Bismarck, AR
Kevin Snider -- Elizabethtown, KY
Wesley Strader -- Spring City, TN
Scott Suggs -- Bryant, AR
Zack Thompson -- Orinda, CA
Bryan Thrift -- Shelby, NC
Jim Tutt -- Longview, TX
Joe Uribe, Jr. -- Lake Forest, CA
Kevin Vida -- Clare, MI
Adam Wagner -- Cookeville, TN
David Walker -- Sevierville, TN
Nate Wellman -- Jenison, MI
Clark Wendlandt -- Leander, TX
Ken Wick -- Star, ID
Keith Williams -- Conway, AR
Jay Yelas -- Corvallis, OR
Chris Zaldain -- San Jose, CA
