Various anglers have different agendas going into the final FLW Tour event of the regular season at the Detroit River. Fittingly, they'll have a lot of options in regard to strategy.
Most who have their sights on "the cardboard" (the oversized fake check presented to the winner after the final day weigh-in) will spend their time on Lake Erie, where the average smallmouth is larger than anywhere in the system. Some who favor a more conservative approach to protect positions in the Angler of the Year (AOY) race will opt for Lake St. Clair, where the bronzebacks are slightly smaller, but more abundant and easier to catch if the wind kicks up.
And then there are the rivers – the Detroit and the St. Clair. This isn't the time of year when they really shine and the tournament probably can't be won by someone who fishes one or the other exclusively. But they harbor a lot of fish and could play a role in the outcome.
All of the anglers BassFan spoke with have been able to locate – and catch – quality fish during practice. But a bag full of 3-pounders won't be worth much this week, as just about everybody expects the day-2 cut to be in the neighborhood of 40 pounds.
Before getting into more bite information, here's more about the fishery itself.
BassFan Lake Profile
> Name: Detroit River (along with adjoining lakes Erie and St. Clair and the St. Clair River)
> Type of Water: Great Lakes system
> Surface Acres: Unavailable
> Primary structure/cover: Offshore ridges, islands, isolated rock (Erie), grass, weeds (St. Clair and rivers)
> Primary forage: Gobies, crayfish, various minnow species
> Average depth: Unavailable
> Species: Primarily smallmouths, a smattering of largemouths
> Length limit: 14 inches
> Reputation: Perhaps the finest smallmouth fishery in the country
> Weather: Forecast for the tournament days is for a mix of clouds and sun, along with manageable winds
> Water temp: Ranges from the low 70s on some parts of Erie to over 80 in the Detroit River
> Water visibility/color: Variable, depending upon location
> Water level: Normal
> Fish in: 5 to 35 feet
> Fish phase: Vast majority are transitioning from post-spawn to summer
> Primary patterns: Dropshotting or dragging tubes (predominant on Erie), crankbaits, jerkbaits, Carolina rigs, jigs, jighead worms, spinnerbaits, grubs
> Winning weight: 38 pounds (final 2 days)
> Cut weight: 39 pounds (first 2 days)
> Check weight: 27 pounds (75th place)
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 3 1/2 for Erie-St. Clair
> Biggest factor: Weather
> Wildcard: A school of big ones swimming somewhere other than Erie
Crowd Headed to Erie
By some estimates, 80% to 90% of the field will concentrate their efforts on Erie. Fish that tip the scales at 4 pounds or better are more common in the big lake, and the tournament will likely be won there unless wind makes it unfishable.
The fish are certainly there. But because they're in transition to their summer haunts, they might not be in the same places from one day to the next.
"I'm banking on Erie because I'm going for the win," said Arkansas' Ray Scheide, who's climbed to 24th in the points with Top10 finishes in the last two events. "I don't have any backups.
"My fish are really dumb (i.e. easy to catch), but they do move around on me some, and it'll be a matter of keeping up with them. I don't have a place where I can just go dropshot a limit – I'll have to hit lots of key spots and take it one fish at a time.
"I've put all my eggs in one basket," he added, "and hopefully I'll be able to get to my basket."
Dave Lefebre is at home on Lake Erie, but he won't be able to run as far as he'd like to.
Pennsylvanian Dave Lefebre lives on the opposite side of Erie. He said if he could fish the stuff around his home, he could catch 27 pounds a day – the bite's on fire over there. But that run is logistically impossible.
"It's not as great as it can be at times over here because this is one of the tougher parts of the year," he said. "The fish are going to get more grouped up than they are right now (as summer progresses).
"But I'm going to fish (Erie) for sure. It doesn't look like we're going to have a hurricane or a nor'easter, so I'll be out there."
Don't Overlook St. Clair
Erie ace Joe Balog, who's a wildcard entrant in this event, said the tournament could be won on St. Clair. To back that up, he pointed to the four 20-pound-plus bags weighed during a BFL there last weekend.
St. Clair is considerably smaller and shallower than Erie and isn't nearly as influenced by wind. And although a 17-inch fish from St. Clair might run a half-pound lighter than its Erie counterpart, the numbers are present to allow for some serious culling.
"Both lakes are capable of producing winning stringers every day," he said. "The thing is, there's been so much publicity about Erie the last few years and so much publicity about how this event has to be won there, that people who are unfamiliar with the lakes say, 'Well, I know where I'm going.'
"I'll most likely stay in Erie, just because I've fished it a lot since 1988 and it's my home water. But a guy who's smart and really knows St. Clair could do well because all of us on Erie will be splitting up so many fish."
Safer Route for Yelas
AOY leader Jay Yelas, who comes in with a 26-point lead over Shinichi Fukae, will spend the tournament on St. Clair. He thinks he can get the bites there to clinch the title outright and not have to worry about what anyone else in the field does.
"You don't get as many big bites as you do on Erie, but it's a more consistent bite and weather-wise, it's more of a sure thing," he said. "I don't really like the fact that I'm not really fishing to win, but I've found some pretty good smallmouth in St. Clair – lots of 3- to 3 1/2-pounders and some bigger than that.
"From my research, the most it's ever taken for 26th place in an FLW Tour or Stren is 34 pounds. If I can catch 17 a day, that should put me in there, or at least real close."
Jay Yelas will fish St. Clair in an effort to close out his second career FLW Tour Angler of the Year title.
He doesn't expect to have competition for his key spots.
"I'll bet I've seen less than 20 boats in 5 days. There's nobody fishing over here and there's lots of areas to fish. It's probably less pressure than I've seen in my whole career."
Illinois' Chad Morgenthaler is 22nd in the points – well within the cutoff for a Forrest Wood Cup berth. He said playing it too safe here could be costly due to the large number of locals in the field.
"A lot of guys who fish conservatively are going to hurt themselves," he said. "On this place, you can get yourself way out of check range because there are too many locals and guys who live around here, and they're going to catch them."
Top 10 To Watch
In no particular order, here are BassFan's recommendations on the Top 10 to watch at this event.
1. Vic Vatalaro – The Ohioan and Erie Stren stalwart has made two Top 25s this year, but a 167th at the Potomac River dropped him to 45th in the points, so he can't afford to fall far if he wants to nail down a Forrest Wood Cup berth. Any move he makes in the standings here is likely to be upward.
2. Jim Moynagh – He's alternately finished in either the Top 25 or in the 150s all season. He was 11th at the Potomac River, but he's not far from his Minnesota home this week and he's too good to continue his boom-bomb ways.
3. Dave Lefebre – He hasn't finished higher than 72nd after leading the AOY race after two events. But he's in his element here (even though he'd prefer to be on the other side of the big pond) and should make up some ground.
4. Joe Balog – He's one of many non-Tour regulars with a shot at the big prize this week, and because of his record on Erie, nobody would be surprised to see him claim it.
5. Jay Yelas – He seems determined to nail down the AOY without having to get help from anybody else. With the way he's fished this year, you have to like his chances of coming in 25th or better, and that finish could be a lot higher with a few key bites.
6. Kevin Vida – This isn't his favorite time of year, but he can catch them here anytime. And because he's hovering around the Forrest Wood Cup bubble, he has extra incentive.
7. Shinichi Fukae – He's undoubtedly dissected every inch of the fishery by now, and he'd like to make Yelas do at least a little bit of work to bag up the AOY.
8. Vic Vatalaro – The St. Clair expert hasn't had a Top 30 this year, and at 62nd in the points, he needs to move up some to make his second straight championship event.
Jim Moynagh will try to put together back-to-back strong finishes for the first time this year.
9. Bryan Coates – At a venue as fickle as this, there's likely to be more than one local wildcard who'll shake up the standings. Coates' record suggests it could be him.
10. Mark Davis – He's had a stellar season (just one finish outside the Top 33) and he has the patience to do whatever it takes to cull up to a maximum-weight bag.
Launch/Weigh-In Info
Anglers will take off at 6:30 a.m. each day from Elizabeth Park Marina (202 Grosse Isle Pkwy. in Trenton, Mich.). Thursday's and Friday’s weigh-ins also will be held at the marina beginning at 3 p.m. Saturday's and Sunday's weigh-ins will be held at the Cobo Center (One Washington Blvd. in Detroit) beginning at 4 p.m.
The FLW Outdoors Family Fun Zone will be open from noon to 4 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday.
Weather Forecast
Here's the forecast for the tournament days.
> Thurs, July 12 – A.M. Showers – 81°/62°
- Wind: From the W/SW at 16 mph
> Fri, July 13 – Partly Cloudy – 77°/60°
- Wind: From the NW at 8 mph
> Sat, July 14 – Mostly Cloudy – 79°/67°
- Wind: From the SW at 11 mph
> Sun, July 15 – Isolated T-Storms – 85°/69°
- Wind: From the W at 8 mph
Notable
> Yelas spent a little bit of practice time in each of the two rivers, but without much success. "I don't know if anybody's really catching them in the rivers," he said. "They'll be better later in the summer when the current picks up."
> Lefebre said there's a good number of largemouths in the river, but a 16- to 17-pound bag is about the extent of their potential. "It sucks people in because they catch a lot of 2 1/2-pounders and it's fun, but those won't play."
> Balog said the local edge is negated somewhat because a lot of fish are on the move. "They're not on the deep structure real good like I'd like them to be, and a lot of people just fishing around will catch them. Now if this were next month and they were on specific structure that's hard to find, then some of us would really have an advantage."
