Put on a blindfold, reach into your tacklebox, and pull out a random lure. Odds are, you can throw it right now at Virginia's Smith Mt. Lake and catch a ton of fish. Whether you'd catch one over 1 1/2 pounds is another matter. And it's going to take more than that to fish all 4 days at this week's Smith Mt. Bassmaster Elite Series.

There are lots of 3- to 4-pound fish showing themselves

in Smith Mt., and even some 5s and 6s. But they're looking, not biting, and that has a number of Bassmaster Elite Series pros concerned.

They're not sure whether to stick with the smaller fish and cull through ounces, or concentrate on bigger fish but risk the chance of only three to four bites a day.

The field launches tomorrow, and no one seems certain their patterns will hold up. And there remain important questions like: Can it be won on docks? Will the big fish finally commit? Where are the post-spawn pods of quality fish? Could a deep bite win?

We won't know the answers for a while, but it does set up a fascinating scenario. Before getting into more specifics about the bite, here's more on the lake itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake name: Smith Mountain
> Type of water: Highland reservoir
> Surface acres: 20,600
> Primary structure/cover: Boat docks (lots of them), laydowns, ledges, humps, points, some scattered patches of grass
> Primary forage: Shad, bluegills, crawfish, yellow perch
> Average depth: 30 feet
> Species: Largemouths and smallmouths (smallmouths not usually a factor)
> Minimum length: 14 inches for each
> Reputation: A heavily used lake with a good population of bass, but fish over 3 pounds are very difficult to catch. Known primarily as a dock lake
> Weather: Hot and mostly sunny with moderate winds
> Water temp: 75 degrees and climbing
> Water visibility/color: Dingy up the river, but clear in the lower end with 4 to 5 feet of visibility
> Water level: Normal, but the lake swells nightly, then drops 4 to 6 inches throughout the day
> Fish in: All depths
> Fish phase: Mostly post-spawn, with some spawners left
> Primary patterns: Worms and jigs around docks (particularly finesse versions), topwaters, swimbaits, crankbaits
> Winning weight: 51 pounds
> Cut weight (Top 12 after 3 days): 36 pounds
> Check weight (Top 50 after 2 days): 21 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 3 for Smith Mt.
> Biggest factor: Will the big fish turn on enough to provide more than one kicker each day?
> Biggest decision: Deep or shallow? Also, how long to stay with a particular pattern, since lots of different things are working
> Wildcard: A school of post-spawn females that stays put

Ounces Will Matter

With so many pros catching fish in the 2-pound-and-under range, that'll stack a lot of weights in the 9- to 10-pound zone, and somewhere within that should be the Top 50 cut (maybe 18 to 20 pounds for 2 days).

That said, Michael Williams won a BFL here in late April with nearly 22 pounds for 1 day, which is stout. Below him were a few above-average bags, then the board stepped down by ounces.
BFL weights tend toward the high side, since locals primarily fish the events. And with the post-spawn conditions at Smith Mt. right now, weights should be significantly lower and more like they were at the 2004 Northern Bassmaster Open, when David Dudley won in October with 11 pounds a day.

In fact, most in the field are hoping for just one kicker a day to boost a limit to 12 pounds.

Rick Morris, who finished 9th at the Open here in 2004, noted: "Practice has been slow and tough. I just go fishing and catch one on this bait, one on this dock, one here, one there, then sometimes I catch none at all. I only caught three today, and a limit the day before.

"It's going to be a low-weight tournament," he added. "I think a lot of limits will weigh 8 to 9 pounds, and ounces are going to count. One big bite will make a big difference."



ESPN Outdoors
Photo: ESPN Outdoors

Virginia's John Crews is tight-lipped about what he's on – that's usually a good sign.

He thinks the fish are in a post-spawn funk, and that's why the bite's been tough. "But they're always like that here," he said. "They mostly feed at night, so it's hard to get them to bite. But a lot of these guys are going to buckle down and figure out how to catch a good limit. A couple guys will come in with 16 or 17 pounds."

The Changeup

A few significant things are happening right now. One is the no-brainer pattern at Smith – the dock bite. And that's typically what wins or places from the spawn through the rest of the year. But there's a ledge bite out in the lake, and also some schooling fish on the points.

Dave Wolak's had a good bead on the fishery for a few years. He finished 10th here in 2004, which gave him a berth in the Bassmaster Tour. And he also won a BFL here in 2003 with 16 1/2 pounds.

"I have a little topwater thing going, and I'm kind of hoping it holds out," he said. "If it doesn't, I'll probably go flipping. I've been here several times, I know the lake well, and I've been running around doing a million different things, like I normally do.

"I just don't think there's giant pods of fish in one given spot. You have to move around a lot."

And that, he said, places a premium on quick changes. In fact, that's how he won the BFL – he ditched his entire practice the morning of competition. "I totally went 180 degrees in the opposite direction and ended up catching the winning sack. That's just the way this place fishes."

Versatility then becomes key. It probably won't be like many of the more recent events, though, where there was a morning bite, then a separate afternoon pattern. Instead, anglers will likely have to change mid-stride. Many feel this is the first true "open mind" event of the season, where things will unfold each day to create big changes in the leaderboard.

Terry Butcher isn't sure what he's going to do throughout the next few days. He had an up/down practice. "Hopefully I can figure out a little more," he said. "It seems like it's going to be a finesse-type tournament for me."

John Crews, on the other hand, feels "pretty decent" about his practice, but does think a number of guys will struggle.

"I fish here maybe a half-dozen days a year, and I used to fish about a half-dozen tournaments a year (here)," he said. "It's a pretty good lake, and somebody will figure them out. I think it'll take 13 to 14 pounds a day to make the Top 12 cut."

The Schedule Turns

This event is the sixth of the Elite Series season, so it's more or less the midpoint. Prior to now, the regular-season events have largely been whack-fests (Amistad, Delta, Clear Lake, Clarks Hill, Guntersville). But the field now faces a more difficult fishery, with conditions more like summer.

After this event, the Elite Series heads to Grand Lake, Okla., then to Champlain and Lake Erie in New York.

ESPN Outdoors
Photo: ESPN Outdoors

If it's all about slow, that could hurt Kevin VanDam, the No. 1 ranked angler in the world.

For those who struggled through the beginning of the season, now's the time when they can make up ground. The Top 37 in the Elite Series Angler of the Year (AOY) race qualify for the 2008 Bassmaster Classic, and for pros like Crews (currently 30th), they see this and the following events as critical.

Also critical is the boom-or-bust nature of the lake as it relates to the AOY race. This is the type of event where the bomb looms heavily.

Skeet Reese leads the AOY race, but he's followed closely by Kevin VanDam and Jared Lintner. So this event could reshape the AOY standings, and Classic qualification, significantly.

Top 10 To Watch

With the above in mind, and more, here's BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch at this event. In no particular order, they are:

1. Kevin VanDam – He's the No. 1 angler in the world, and he automatically makes every watch list. But this tournament might give him a little trouble, because he sometimes struggles when he has to fish slow. Then again, the "fast bite" might be happening on the main lake, in which case he's gold.

2. John Crews – The Virginia pro needs to move up in the points, and this is the perfect place to start. He's got solid experience here, and was very quiet about his practice – usually an indication that he's on something good.

3. Mike Iaconelli – If there was ever a setting for Ike to launch a comeback, it's here. Things could very well devolve into a finesse contest, and that's where Ike shines. Mentally, he's got to shake his slump.

4. Rick Morris – Another angler with some solid Smith Mt. experience. He's back at 44th in the points, but the tour is now in more familiar territory, and Morris definitely shines in the North.

5. Ken Brodeur – At 41st in the points, this Connecticut sophomore must feel some pressure. Two good finishes so far – 10th at Amistad and 22nd at Clarks Hill – show he's got some gas in the tank. There's probably no tougher state to fish than Connecticut (except maybe New Jersey), and this event just seems to set up well for him.

6. Jeff Kriet – Don't forget that Kriet's specialty is clear water, and his finesse game has been strong. A good limit shouldn't be a problem for him, but the all-elusive kicker could be.

7. Denny Brauer – Call it a feeling, but Brauer's due, and his flipping skills could play huge up shallow, as long as he can get them to go on a jig. If it's a small-stick event, he'll probably stumble.

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Photo: ESPN Outdoors

Rookie Matt Sphar's a darkhorse pick, but the conditions here are a lot like those in the Finger Lake near his home in New York.

8. Aaron Martens – This is just the type of lake any BassFan would want to see Martens fish. If it turns out there's one single way to make the big fish go, it'll likely be Martens who figures it out.

9. Dave Wolak – Smith Mt. offers good memories for him, and he's got significant experience here. He's back at 57th in the points, so he's got some real estate to cover.

10. Matt Sphar – Smith Mt. fishes a lot like his home Finger Lakes in New York, and he's the official dark-horse pick. Hasn't done much this season, but this is his element, and like Wolak, he's under pressure to shine right now.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Anglers launch daily at 5:50 a.m. from Parkway Marina (16918 Smith Mt. Pkwy., Huddleston, VA). Daily weigh-ins are held beginning at 3:00 p.m. at the same location.

Weather Forecast

Here's the forecast for the tournament days. Note the change expected for Saturday, with a temperature drop and wind change.

For more weather news, including radar and satellite imagery, visit OutdoorsFanWeather.com.

> Thurs, June 7 – Mostly Sunny – 93°/68°
- Wind: From the S/SW at 10 mph

> Fri, June 8 – Mostly Sunny – 94°/70°
- Wind: From the W/SW at 12 mph

> Sat, June 9 – Partly Cloudy – 86°/60°
- Wind: From the N/NW at 9 mph

> Sun, June 10 – Partly Cloudy – 86°/61°
- Wind: From the E/NE at 15 mph

Notable

> BassFan Big Stick John Murray said his practice was "hit or miss." To read his practice report, click here to go On Tour With The BassFan Big Sticks.

> Many of the docks have been replaced recently with floating versions, but some of the older-style docks, with pilings remain. Those have been key in past events.

> AOY leader Reese said of his practice: "It's very sporadic fishing out here. There's not a lot of fish, but when you do catch one, they're decent 2- and 3-pound bass. Catching a limit of 2- or 3-pounders is going to be difficult. If a guy catches 10 or 11 pounds a day he'll have a decent tournament, but if he catches 12 pounds a day he'll have a great tournament. I haven't found any key areas yet – a couple spots here and there, (but) definitely not a glory hole."