Kentucky Fish Shallow, Deep And In-Between

The spawn is almost over at Kentucky Lake, but not quite. There are bass on a lot of the ledges, but not all of them. There are a lot of good fish shallow, but probably not enough to win.

That's the deal heading into day 1 of the Kentucky FLW Tour – there's a "but" to just about everything. That's because a high percentage of the fish are in transition to the post-spawn mode, but haven't completed the process yet. Some are still shallow, some have gone deep and a lot are in between.

"It's all going to be about timing," said Paducah resident Terry Bolton, who's always one of the favorites here. "The offshore fish are just getting out there, and we're probably about 10 days away from some phenomenal structure fishing.

"Whoever stops in the right place at the right time could get well in a big hurry, but he could also fish right through a bunch of good fish and never know they're there."

The lake level is slightly above full pool and there's a lot of flooded vegetation that holds fish, so going out to the ledges won't be a prerequisite to weigh a good sack. However, most of the anglers BassFan spoke with said that victory for a shallow-camper is unlikely.

The majority of the 3-plus-pounders are at mid-range depths and below.

"There are rumors of some big groups of fish out there," said Florida's Terry Segraves, the only angler to record Top 10s in both of the tour's last two visits here (2003-04). "Whoever's fortunate enough to come across the right group could walk away with it."

Before getting into more information about the bite, here's more about the lake itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake Name: Kentucky and Barkley lakes
> Type of Water: Flood-control reservoirs
> Surface Acres (full pool): Kentucky = 160,000; Barkley = 120,000
> Primary structure/cover: Shallow – Flooded buck brush, vegetation, willows; Offshore – Ledges and humps.
> Primary forage: Shad (yellowtail, threadfin, gizzard), some crawfish and bluegill
> Average depth: Kentucky = 15 feet; Barkley = 8 feet
> Species: Largemouths (mostly), smallmouths, spotted bass
> Minimum length: 15" for largemouths and smallmouths, and 12" for spots
> Reputation: Big lake, lots of fish, can be caught many ways
> Weather: Relatively cool with a mix of storms, clouds and sun
> Water temperature: High 60s to low 70s
> Water visibility/color: 1-2 feet, slightly stained.
> Water level: Slightly above summer pool
> Fish in: 0-25 feet
> Fish phase: Primarily post-spawn, but some in all three phases
> Primary patterns: Shallow – topwater, flipping/pitching, spinnerbaits; Deeper – Carolina-rigging, crankbaits
> Winning weight: 38 pounds (final 2 days)
> Cut weight (Top 10): 33-34 pounds (first 2 days)
> Check weight (75th): 20-24 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 3 for Kentucky/Barkley
> Biggest factors: Deep-fish bite, local knowledge
> Biggest decision: Whether to grind out shallow fish or gamble on deeper areas
> Wildcard: Stormy weather could negatively affect deep bite.

Lofty Practice Standard

South Carolina's Anthony Gagliardi achieved his first tour win here in 2004. There wasn't much luck involved – he had what might have been the best practice of his career.

He's been unable to duplicate it this week.

"Had I not had that (2004 pre-fish), I'd probably say that this has been a pretty good practice," he said. "But that time I found more concentrations of quality fish than I ever have.

"This time I haven't located as many spots for numbers. I've likely caught some bigger fish, but the numbers are down."

He pounded the offshore ledges with a crankbait 2 years ago to win with a combined weight of 29-08 over the final 2 days. He thinks those ledge-fish will hold the keys to victory again.

"I'm still going to predict that it's going to be won deep," he said. "The fish that I've caught are so much bigger than the shallow ones.

"Some guys will make the cut shallow, but those bigger females are going to be out on the lake and on the ledges, and those are the fish you need to win the tournament."

Eager Eaters Up Close?

Bolton has caught both shallow and deep fish in practice. He said the amount of water in the bushes is the biggest difference between the conditions this week and what the field faced in '04.

"There's more opportunity to fish shallow and work shallow structure," he said. "A couple of guys will do well shallow, a couple will do well off structure and a couple might even do well Carolina-rigging or something like that at the mid-depth ranges.

"I do think structure will win the tournament, but it might not be 20 feet. It could be as shallow as 7 feet."

However, if today's forecast is accurate and heavy rain transpires, that could change everything.

"If we get a big bunch of rain (last night and today), the guys going deep could really get hurt," he said. "The deep fish tend to get off the bottom when that happens and they get hard to catch.

"It doesn't seem to bother the shallow fish that much when the water comes up."

Going Mobile

Florida's Mike Surman has fared well here in the past, but he's at a bit of a disadvantage this time: he made the Top 10 in the Cumberland FLW Series and was limited to 2 1/2 days of practice.

"Kentucky is one of my favorite lakes and I'm always confident when I come here, but it seems to be a little bit tougher than it normally is," he said. "I think the fish are really moving out hard (from the shallows). That's my opinion, and we'll find out whether I'm right or wrong.

"This is a great lake with tons of fish in it, and when you get on them you can catch a hundred a day. But the way it's fishing right now, there are a lot of small fish in a lot of places and there aren't a lot of 15- to 17-inchers."

There will still be some big sacks caught though.

"You'll see a 20-pound bag or two and a few 17 or 18s. But if you can be a Steady Eddie and catch 12 pounds a day, that should get you a check."

Smallmouths, Anyone?

Segraves is unsure how he'll go about trying to achieve his third straight Top 10 here.

"It's been a struggle for me this week," he said. "The fish don't seem to know whether they want to be on the bank or the inside. The temperatures have dropped a little bit and they just don't seem to have the right attitude right now.

"I really haven't found them where I have the last couple of years, so I'll be running about 40 or 45 miles tomorrow. In previous years I haven't run more than 10."

He'll head toward the dam with hopes that the gates will be open to compensate for the anticipated rain. He figures that if there's some current, he's got a decent chance of getting into some big smallmouths.

"Current could change things drastically," he said. "You can catch 4- to 5-pound smallmouths. They're not in here in New York numbers, but they're just gorgeous fish."

Top 10 to Watch

Here, in no particular order, are BassFan's recommendations for the Top 10 to Watch in this event.

1) Anthony Gagliardi – He won here in 2004 and he's got a great shot at Angler of the Year (AOY), so he has extra motivation. Plus, he's extremely versatile, and that could be crucial this week.

2) Shinichi Fukae – He's won two of the four 2006 events, and he said after his victory at Beaver that he loves this lake (as well as Champlain, the tour's final stop). That's bad news for everybody else.

3) David Fritts – The crankbait expert was 4th here last time (he won way back in 1997) and he's 60th in the points. He needs to move up to gain a Forrest L. Wood Championship berth, and this is a good opportunity to do it.

4) Terry Bolton – A local who won an EverStart (now Stren) here last summer. Whether the fish are shallow or deep, he'll find 'em.

5) Mike Surman – His track record here is strong and he's got some momentum from a Top 10 at the recent Cumberland FLW Series.

6) Mark Davis – He handles post-spawn conditions as well as anybody and he's due for a Top 10 (it's been 11 months).

7) Steve Kennedy – He's excelled on the Bassmaster Tour this year (three Top 5s), but has only one decent FLW finish (22nd at Murray). Time to balance that out a bit.

8) Dan Morehead – Has done no better than 143rd his last two times out, but this is his home lake and he knows it as well. His victory here was awhile back (1998), but it's not ancient history.

9) Darrel Robertson – Points leader could solidify his AOY chances with a great finish here. He's versatile and loves to fish crankbaits.

10) Gabe Bolivar – Adaptable young Westerner has been solid at every stop in his first year on the tour. His next step is to make a Top 10, and it could happen here.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Anglers will take off at 6:30 each morning from Kentucky Dam Marina. Wednesday's and Thursday's weigh-ins will also be held at the marina beginning at 3 p.m. Friday's and Saturday's weigh-ins will be held at the Wal-Mart store located at 310 West Fifth Street in Benton beginning at 4 p.m. The free Family Fun Zone opens at 2 p.m. on Friday and Saturday outside the weigh-in tent in the Wal-Mart parking lot.

Weather Report

Here's the Weather Channel's forecast for the tournament days.

> Wed, May 10 – Strong Storms – 73°/54°
- Wind: From the W/SW 11 mph

> Thur, May 11 – Mostly Cloudy – 68°/51°
- Wind: From the W at 15 mph

> Fri, May 12 – Partly Cloudy – 69°/53°
- Wind: From the NW at 9 mph

> Sat, May 13 – Isolated T-Storms – 75°/55°
- Wind: From the NW at 8 mph

Notable

> BassFan Big Sticks John Murray and Jay Yelas are fishing tour events for the second straight week (Murray was at the Clarks Hill Bassmaster last week while Yelas competed at the Cumberland FLW Series). You can read their practice reports by clicking here.

> Gagliardi benefited from an 8-ounce dead-fish penalty assessed against Greg Hackney in 2004. Without it, Hackney would have won by 3 ounces.