When it comes to Lay Lake, Alabama pros Boyd Duckett, Russ Lane and Matt Herren need no introduction. But a little backstory never hurts.

Boyd Duckett won the 2007 Bassmaster Classic at Lay Lake. Russ Lane went into the event as one of the favorites, and was in the hunt on day 1, but crashed on day 2 when his high-risk bite didn't pay off. Matt Herren is a Coosa-chain monster who's fishing his second Classic after moving to the Bassmaster Elite Series from the FLW Tour.

The three are easily near the top

of the favorites column for the upcoming Lay Lake Classic (Feb. 19–21).

But according to the three pros, it's way too early to even begin thinking about how this Classic might play out, because the patterns could be all over the map once again. And the weather is one giant wildcard.

Little Bit of Everything

The 2007 Lay Lake Classic was memorable not only because it was the first time in history a home-state angler won (Duckett), but also because so many different patterns challenged for the win.

Duckett won by catching a limit of spots in the morning, then flipping for kicker Florida-strain bites the rest of the day. He caught a kicker each day, including an 8-pounder, and that made the difference.

Skeet Reese, who finished 2nd, fished up the river and averaged about 16 pounds a day on spotted bass.

Right behind Reese was Kevin VanDam, who worked a lipless crank along grass edges. Then came Federation nation qualifier Terry McWilliams, who camped on a hot-water discharge, followed by Gary Klein, who started deep with a jig (a big surprise, even for locals), then eventually switched to docks.

"I promise you that no one certain pattern will dominate this year either – especially since we've had so much cold weather," Lane said. "What I mean by that is, when it warms up, and it will in time, all the fish in the lake start getting really active, so if it warms up there's going to be a lot of patterns going on."

The weather, of course, has been a significant story throughout December and January. For the first time in many folks' lives, Alabama lakes had significant ice on them, and smaller waterbodies were totally locked up.

"I have some friends who fished the Coosa on the upper pool at Logan the other day, and they said the water temp was 39 or 40 degrees," Herren said. "That's ridiculously cold for the Coosa River. So it's all a big guessing game right now. The conditions are going to dictate where this Classic goes down. I don't want to tip my hand to what I think is going to happen, but it'll be the conditions that set what happens."

What's especially notable about the cold trend is that since the big fish in Lay are Florida-strain, the three pros believe that a likewise cold February will turn this Classic into a spotted-bass event.

What Might Change?

If the cold does persist, and if spotted bass present the only viable option, the weights should slip a little from where they were in 2007 (Duckett averaged a little more than 16 pounds per day). Then again they might not, because Reese was right around 16 pounds a day on spotted bass.

More important, continued cold could simply take the Florida kicker out of the equation. The flipping bite could be dead, the lipless-crank bite maybe gone, leaving deep fish and the river to rule. The trouble is, this is all largely uncharted territory in that part of the country.

Duckett noted: "The weather's been the coldest it's been since 1962. I don't know if that makes the fish further behind in their cycle or not. When an Alabama bass is living under the ice, I don't know what that does to them. Feb. 19 might actually be more like Feb. 1. I just don't know. But if that is the case, then it'll definitely be a spotted-bass tournament. You just can't get the bites otherwise.

"That would change everything," Duckett added. "There are some deep spots in the lower end that we didn't see much of last time, and I don't know why. And there's no doubt the river would be exploited more. But if it does warm up, the largemouth will kick in. It's all about the weather."

Lane is likewise guessing as to how things might go down, but he (like Herren) said the Classic in 2007 definitely didn't show what the lake can do.

"If the timing's right with the weather conditions, it could be crazy," Lane said. "It could take 60 pounds to win, and I say that very seriously. If it's not right, it'll be like before. It'll still probably take a few big bites either way, but if no one gets one, 15 pounds of spots a day up the river – that'll win."

Notable

> Duckett said he "honestly" hasn't thought about the Classic much yet. Some of that's by design, but he's also been tremendously busy launching and growing his new Duckett Fishing company, which manufactures and sells high-end rods for about $150 each.

> Lane noted that one of his problems at the 2007 Classic was spectator traffic – it sort of freaked him out, and he didn't handle it well. "I'm not going to let it bother me this time," he said.

> Herren just returned from a scouting trip to the California Delta, in anticipation of the Elite Series stop there shortly after the Classic.