Not Many On Beds, So Flipping Should Rule

BassFan Staff

Imagine a tour-level event in Florida during February in which sight-fishing is not a major factor. That's not a common occurrence at all, but it appears that's precisely what's about to happen.

The prevailing opinion among veteran anglers from the Sunshine State is that most of the big females in Lake Okeechobee have completed

the spawning ritual and have moved on with their seasonal progression. Some believe there's still another wave to come, but regardless, there were very few on the beds when practice for this week's FLW Tour Open wrapped up on Tuesday.

There will still be some big bags caught – most likely with flipping sticks – but Brandon McMillan's 4-day weight record of 106 1/2 pounds from last year appears to be safe. Home-state competitors always have an advantage in Florida, and it might be even bigger this time when the difference-maker fish can't be seen prior to being caught. It'll be a huge help to know where they're lurking.

Before getting into more about the bite, here's the lowdown on the lake itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake Name: Lake Okeechobee
> Type of Water: Shallow Florida natural lake
> Surface Acres: 448,000 acres (730 square miles)
> Primary structure/cover: Vegetation (many types)
> Average depth: 11 to 14 feet
> Species: Largemouths only
> Length limit: 12 inches
> Reputation: Prolific fishery with potential for explosive weights (30-pound-plus bags), but can be stingy when conditions aren't quite right.
> Weather: Unsettled – cooler temperatures, clouds and perhaps some rain are on the way
> Water temp: Low to mid 70s
> Water visibility/color: Mostly clear, except in areas ravaged by wind
> Water level: Normal
> Fish in: All depths
> Fish phase: Pre-spawn/spawn/post-spawn
> Primary patterns: Flipping, spinnerbaits, topwater, rattlebaits, Senkos, sight-fishing
> Winning weight: 81 pounds
> Cut weight (Top 20 after 2 days): 33 pounds
> Check weight (50th): 26 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 3 for Okeechobee
> Biggest factors: The big bite – it can take you a long way, but it's never a guarantee.
> Biggest decision: Whether to wait out the fish in a single area or bounce from place to place
> Wildcard: A single, overlooked area with hog females

No Major Influx

When practice started on Saturday, many competitors were surprised by how few fish were on the beds. Some thought there would surely be a big movement toward the banks when the full moon arrived early this week.

Nothing of the sort appears to have happened, however. The vast majority of the quality bites are coming from the outside edges of the abundant vegetation.

Brandon Medlock won the Okeechobee Southeastern EverStart 3 weeks ago by flipping and pitching around a specific type of vegetation that he declined to identify because he's also entered in this event, and it appears likely that a similar tactic might prevail this time. Medlock triumphed on the strength of one gigantic bag – a 35 1/2-pound haul on day 2 – and such sacks have become harder and harder to come by as the new year has progressed.

Weather could also play a big role. The sun has kept itself hidden in recent days, temperatures have cooled and some stiff winds are forecast for the first couple of days of competition. The wind might be the biggest variable, as it could muddy up some places that anglers had been banking on to produce.

Everything points toward a flipping-dominated bite, and the lake should fish big because there are thousands of places to ply that technique. It will behoove a competitor to have a solid milk run consisting of a dozen or more stops – a good hydrilla mat here, a solid stretch of reeds over there.

Notes From the Field

Here are some practice notes from some of the anglers who'll be competing this week.

Scott Canterbury – Odenville, Ala.
"I would've bet the house that this was going to be a sight-fishing event and coming down here, that's what I was prepared for. I spent one whole day trying to find them with my Typhoon sunglasses, but there were hardly any. I won't look at all (on day 1).

"The tournaments I've done well in here I was always sight-fishing, but I will say that I've had one of my better practices that didn't involve sight-fishing. I've caught a few big ones, so I'm feeling optimistic, but you don't ever really know. I know I can catch a lot of fish, but the thing is going to be getting the bigger ones to bite.

"I think the Top 10 or so will really catch them, but the rest of the weights will be way off from last year."

Greg Bohannan – Rogers, Ark.
"Halfway through the second (practice) day I realized that there wasn't any fish on the beds, so I just went fishing. I caught a big one or two each day, but nothing great.

"On a scale of 1 to 10, I'd rank my practice about a 5. I'll just have to cover a lot of water and hope I can get a couple of big bites every day. You need three or four decent ones a day to do well and two to get a check. I'm excited about one area I found, but beyond that, I'm just going to fish hard.

"Last year 50th place was right around 20 pounds a day. I don't think it's going to be quite that good, but it'll still be good."

Glenn Browne – Ocala, Fla.
"Sight-fishing isn't happening at all. From what I heard, a lot of them came up in November, and for whatever reason they didn't come this time (on the recent full moon). They're not showing up, so they've either done it already or they're holding back.

"I looked some, but it was pretty evident that they really weren't there and what I did see were little tiny things. I had a good first day just fishing and then after that it got kind of mediocre. I caught a big fish here or there, but it was really nothing I could duplicate.

"I've got some confidence in one big area, but it's kind of one of those Okeechobee community holes. You can find some places with a lot of fish, but other people find them, too. I'm just hoping there aren't too many guys in there."

Scott Suggs – Alexander, Ark.
"I've never caught them down here flipping, so I've been trying more of a post-spawn deal for what I think they should be doing and that's how I've caught what I've caught. I'm sure some guys are going to wreck them flipping and it's hard to get that kind of quality any other way.

"I've got one area that I'm just going to treat like it's a lake of its own and spend my time there instead of running around. I know there's some quality that lives there, but my deal will really depend on the wind and the weather."

Ish Monroe – Hughson, Calif.
"I think we missed the big wave of spawners. There's a few here and a few there and if you're in a pocket you may find one or two. If I roll through an area and see one, that's great, but I haven't found one on a bed that was worth catching.

"I'm having a real hard time on this lake. Guys are talking about 30-pound bags and needing 15 to 17 pounds a day to get a check and I'm like, where are they fishing?

"I've got one area where I'm confident I can catch a limit, but I don't know if it'll weigh 6 pounds or 16. I might be able to get 15 to 18 pounds if I get two big bites, but I don't think I can get 25. And after that I've got nothing else around that area, so I'd be scrambling again.

"But after 2 months off, I'm just happy to be fishing again."

Top 10 To Watch

With the above in mind and more, here's BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch at this event.

1. Scott Martin – The defending Forrest Wood Cup champion has spent the vast majority of the off-season tangling with bruisers on his home lake and is surely locked in on their present state of mind. He's won this event before (when it was part of the Eastern FLW Series) and it would surprise no one if he hoisted another trophy come Sunday.

2. Bryan Thrift – He was a Big "O" ace earlier in his career, winning an EverStart in 2005 and placing 6th in a Tour stop during his rookie season the following year. He hasn't been quite as stout here recently, but his shallow-cover game gives him a chance.

3. Randall Tharp – The Alabamian makes extended visits to Okeechobee during the wintertime and fares extremely well in local events. He was the runner-up in this tournament last year and is primed to snatch his first tour-level triumph.

4. Glenn Browne – He's a Floridian whose long record of Big "O" success includes a 2007 wintertime EverStart victory. He's can be a boom-or-bust type, but he's almost always strong in his home state.

5. David Dudley – The 2011 Angler of the Year's Okeechobee record is sort of a mixed bag, but it includes several excellent showings during the early part of the year. He's incredibly consistent nowadays and is a major threat to make the final day wherever he goes.

6. Brandon McMillan – The defending champion is a big sentimental favorite to repeat just 6 weeks after his father, Okeechobee stud Jimmy McMillan, was killed in a robbery attempt at the family-owned grocery store. If he wins again, there won't be a dry eye anywhere near the weigh-in stage on Sunday.

7. Mike Surman – A 21st in this event in 2011 was by far the veteran Floridian's best finish during a difficult campaign. He loves the lake dearly and a final-day appearance would undoubtedly carry great significance for him at this point in his career.

8. Koby Kreiger – If there are spawners to be found anywhere on the lake, there's probably nobody better at pinning them down and getting them to bite. There was a time when he struggled in his adopted home state, but not anymore.

9. J.T. Kenney – If flipping's the deal, he's about as good as they get with the long stick. His 59th in this tournament last year was a disappointment and he'll be looking for much better this time. This year marks the 10th anniversary of his 2002 Tour victory at the Big "O".

10. Bobby Lane – Three consecutive bombs marred an otherwise superb 2011 season for him, but he grabbed some early momentum this year with a win at the PAA Tour Team Challenge at Toho. He'll be looking to gather some additional positive vibes from his home state as the Bassmaster Classic approaches.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

On days 1 and 2, anglers will launch at 7:30 a.m. from Roland and Mary Ann Martin's Marina and Resort (109 Central Ave., Clewiston, Fla). Weigh-ins will commence at 3 p.m. at the same location.

On days 3 and 4, competitors will take off at 7:30 a.m. from the Clewiston Boat Basin. Weigh-ins are scheduled for 4 p.m. at the Clewiston Walmart store (1005 West Sugarland Hwy.).

Weather Forecast

> Thurs., Feb. 9 - Mostly Cloudy - 78°/59°
- Wind: From the N/NE at 14 mph

> Fri., Feb. 10 - P.M. Showers - 79°/61°
- Wind: From the E/SE at 11 mph

> Sat., Feb. 11 - Few Showers - 72°/48°
- Wind: From the NW at 11 mph

> Sun., Feb. 12 - Partly Cloudy - 68°/50°
- Wind: From the N/NE at 13 mph

Notable

> Like many in the field, BassFan Big Sticks Jay Yelas and Luke Clausen endured an up-and-down practice period and are apprehensive about their chances to fare well. Yelas plans to spend most of day 1 flipping, whereas Clausen hasn't yet settled on a gameplan. To read their reports, click here.