Warmth Wildcard Means Lay Could Change Every Day

It looks like the predictions ring half true, but the bells might reach a deafening tone by Saturday or Sunday at Alabama's Lay Lake – site of this week's Bassmaster Classic.

For the past week, anglers have been hinging their hopes on a promised warming trend. That trend arrived, and already, water temperatures have increased by 6 or 7 degrees. They're hovering in the 50- to 52-degree range – a touch cold for a massive move toward the bank, but darn close.

A projected overnight low of 47 tonight, and a high near 70 tomorrow with clear skies and sun, could bump the water up more toward 55 or 56 by Saturday – even Friday. That's when the bells could start ringing.

Which would be good news for pretty much everybody in the field, because almost certainly a significant wave of largemouths would enter a full pre-spawn feeding mode.

A scenario like that could also bump the daily weights by at least 2 pounds per sack, and give many the opportunity at a 20-pound day.

But other factors are at play, current being one, a group of big spotted bass another, plus a whole lot more.

Before analyzing the various factors that'll affect competition beginning this Friday, here's more about the lake itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake name: Lay
> Type of water: Lowland reservoir
> Surface acres: 12,000
> Primary structure/cover: Rocks, rocky points, brush, docks, shoreline grass, laydowns, eddies, bars
> Primary forage: Threadfin and gizzard shad, plus crayfish, sunfish and crappies
> Average depth: 22 feet
> Species: Largemouths and spotted bass
> Minimum length: 12 inches for both
> Reputation: A premier and very consistent spotted-bass fishery (a "football factory"), with an excellent population of 2- to 5-pound largemouths with some Florida genetics
> Weather: Warm with a mix of sun and clouds. Rain in the forecast for Saturday.
> Water temp: Low- to mid-50s and rising
> Water visibility/color: Light stain, 1 1/2 to 2 feet
> Water level: Full pool (normal)
> Fish in: All depths
> Fish phase: winter moving into pre-spawn
> Primary patterns: Finesse plastics, jerkbaits, spinnerbaits, heavy metal, jigs (deep and shallow), flipping docks and shoreline grass, maybe crankbaits
> Winning weight: 52 pounds
> Cut weight (Top 25 after 2 days): 26 pounds
> Check weight: N/A (everyone is paid)
> Fishing quality: 2 for Lay, but could easily turn into a 4 with warmer water
> Biggest factor: Water temperature – warmer equals better
> Biggest decision: Whether to focus on largemouths or spots, or a mixed bag. Also, whether to box a limit first, or chase kickers right away
> Wildcard: The river, a largemouth hotspot, a pod of 4-pound spots

Factor: Water Temperature

Last week's practice put anglers out on water that was somewhere in the mid- to high-40s, depending on location. They took 5 days off, then relaunched this morning and discovered the warmup.

The entire lake is poised for the beginning of the spring bite. It's literally on the verge, and needs just a few more degrees to get there.

If and when that happens, the largemouths and the spots will move toward or to the bank. The spots are feeding fine right now, but the largemouths have sort of lifted off bottom into a mild suspension, and they've got lockjaw. The warmer water would almost certainly generate their need to feed.

"It's very possible things could change every day of the tournament," said Boyd Duckett, who's fishing his first Classic and lives a few hours away. "I'm fishing the mid-section of the lake, and the deep fish will probably move."

Tim Horton noted he found some 52-degree water, but overall, his fish haven't changed much since last week. He checked some of his previous stuff, and didn't get bit on his best spotted-bass bite, but he did find a "new little deal" – possibly a result of the warming trend – which is encouraging.

About the water temperature, Horton added: "It should keep going up with the sun tomorrow. Right now, it's easier to catch a 4-pound spot than a 4-pound largemouth, but that could change."

Matt Reed spent his entire day fishing for "mid-level" fish, meaning those in between deep and shallow. He thinks the warmer water will move some of his fish shallower by Friday, but plans to start at those mid-depths. His day wasn't great, but he did catch a 42-pound striper on a jerkbait and 10-pound Bass Pro Shops XPS fluorocarbon.

Local Russ Lane said his fish were "pretty much the same" as last week – no major changes – but he didn't check any of his aces. He looked at them a long time ago in pre-practice, and the fish were there, so he's confident he can go to them for a big bite.

"I saw very few largemouths," he added. "I don't think the big females are to the bank yet. It's hard to judge, but I still think it'll take about 80% spots to win."

And warmer water would of course help the flippers, who'd be able to fly fast and loose to find a good stretch.

Factor: Which Section?

The field is decidedly mixed on which section of the lake will see the most action Friday morning, but overall, the majority plans to at least start in the mid-lake. That section offers the greatest diversity of habitat, and the most options.

Some will fish down-lake, where the easier limits seem to be coming.

No angler BassFan spoke with is committed to the river, but that doesn't mean no one's starting there. It's very possible that the winning spots live in the river (Jay Yelas won there in 2002), but it's a gamble if largemouths grow to dominate the event, because it's a long run back to the mid-section.

Factor: Limits First?

Another major question is which first – a limit or a kicker? It's an especially difficult decision because a strong start in the Classic is crucial, and no angler wants to spend the first 3 hours of Friday without a fish in the box.

That said, the best time to catch a kicker, or two or three, is often the very first morning of an event, because the fish have sat untouched since practice.

Then again, largemouths like sun, so the general feeling is that the better big-fish fishing will occur in the afternoons.

Gary Klein had a strong final practice – he swung on a few fish and caught a 4-pounder, and a 3-08. He figures his limit-fish are good for 12 pounds, so those two kickers showed him the potential for a 17-pound bag. Notable is he caught those two on a "magic bait" – which he promptly put back in the rod locker.

"I think 1st place on day 1 will be about 19 pounds," he said. "I think the fishing's getting better every day. The deep water is the most consistent bite. I think when I've got about 13 pounds in the livewell, I'll go try to catch me one or two (kickers). It'll be a scramble, but I enjoy fishing like that."

Edwin Evers also has limit-fish and bigger-fish spots, but he's "kind of nervous" because he didn't get a lot of bites today. "I'm going to try for a limit halfway deep, then fish shallow, cover water, and try to catch them," he said.

Lee Bailey, Jr. checked some of his fish today, and also went looking for new water. He doesn't think he has the fish yet to win, "but in a couple of days, that could change real quick." He's not committed to starting any one way. Instead, he'll wait to see the weather on Friday morning. If it's warm, he'll probably start on his big-fish spot.

Kevin Wirth is thinking along the same lines as Bailey. Wirth has three different patterns going – he found the last one today – but isn't sure which section of the lake he'll start in. "Friday morning, when I'm running down the lake, I'll make my decision," he said. "I'll choose the quickest way to five fish, then change. I should be able to catch a limit in 20 minutes."

One important factor about Lay is that overall, the lake's fairly small. Many limit-spots are just a short hop from big-fish spots, so adjusting on-the-fly won't be as difficult as it would be at more expansive waterbodies. That's one reason so many anglers said they'll keep an open mind, and change with the fish if they need to.

Factor: Current

When Jay Yelas won, his bite was completely current-driven. After Alabama Power opened the gates, his fish bit. When the gates shut, he sat around and picked tails off his worms.

The field seems to agree that current matters much more to the spotted-bass bite than it does for largemouths. And it matters much more up the river than it does down-lake.

Todd Faircloth noted that current dictates which fish he'll target. "When it's moving, I'll fish for spots," he said. "When it's not, I'll fish for largemouths. But I'm having a hard time catching largemouths. I've caught some 3 1/2-pound spots, but most of my largemouths are 2 to 2 1/2 pounds.

"A couple of pounds will mean a lot here," he added.

Alabama Power generally doesn't move much water on the weekend, which could shut down some good bites after day 1. Wirth noted that, in the absence of current, wind can help, because it moves water too. With rains and potential other weather in the forecast for Saturday, an angler might get an extra day from a wind-driven big-fish bite.

For reference, here's the tentative generation schedule for both Logan Martin and Lay Dams on Friday. The weekend schedule is not yet available.

Lay
Rate: 2 units
Time: 6:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m.
Release stops at 2:00 p.m.

Logan Martin
Rate: 1 unit
Time: 6:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m.
Release stops at 2:00 p.m.

What It'll Take

Classic practice always brings up a difficult situation for anglers – should they just feel for bites to make sure fish are around, or stick a few to check their size, knowing they might not catch them again?

Anglers usually have to stick at least a few fish on the final day of practice, because Friday morning is so crucial. But overall, nobody really knows what they're on top of until competition begins.

And even if they know they're on big fish, they'll probably keep that quiet to avoid attention at the onset.

Despite that, here's what some of the anglers think they'll need to catch each day to win:

> Tim Horton – 16 to 17 pounds

> Zell Rowland – "If conditions are like practice, then 13 1/2 pounds a day, but if it warms up, 15 to 16 pounds a day."

> Russ Lane – 16 to 17 pounds

> Edwin Evers – 15 pounds

> Lee Bailey, Jr. – 15 to 16 pounds

> Gary Klein – 16 pounds and change

> Kelly Jordon – 16 1/2 pounds

> Todd Faircloth – 15 to 16 pounds

> John Crews – 16-plus-pounds

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Anglers will launch at 7 a.m. each day from Paradise Point Marina, located mid-lake on Paradise Point Road off Fort Williams Ferry Road (State Hwy. 28). Weigh-ins start daily at 3 p.m. at the Birmingham Jefferson Convention Complex (2100 Richard Arrington Jr. Blvd. North) in downtown Birmingham.

The Classic ESPN Outdoors Expo will be held at the Convention Complex Friday through Sunday, with doors opening at 10 a.m. each day.

Weather Forecast

Here's the Weather Channel forecast for the tournament days:

> Fri, Feb. 23 – Mostly Sunny – 65°/43°
- Wind: From the east/northeast at 6 mph

> Sat, Feb. 24 – Partly Cloudy – 70°/56°
- Wind: From the south/southeast at 14 mph

> Sun, Feb. 25 – Partly Cloudy – 67°/42°
- Wind: From the southwest at 8 mph

Notable

> Mike McClelland said he's sticking with a jig for both his deep and shallow fish. "I'm fishing a couple of new Jewel jigs. Not as many fish are relating to bottom as they were last week, but I feel jigs give me the opportunity for bigger bites."

> Steve Kennedy popped a 5-pound fish today, and saw some other good ones. There's a buzz surrounding him.

> Rick Clunn said he'll be "still practicing" Friday, and added: "I'll be practicing the next day too." He thinks it'll take a mixed bag to win. And he's fishing for largemouths, but is actually catching more spots than largemouths.