The Amistad toad-fest is just a memory now. The Bassmaster Elite Series moves to Sam Rayburn Reservoir this week, and tournament-weary Big Sam is about as likely to surrender a 30-pound sack as the woeful Houston Texans are to win next year's Super Bowl.
Amistad and Rayburn are separated by less than 500 miles of Texas highway. But if you judge by how each is fishing at present, they're worlds apart. Conditions just aren't right for Rayburn to shine.
There's been too much pressure on the fish. Many have the left the beds and they're too hard to find. The weather's too unsettled. The water's too low. There's too much recreational activity on the lake.
Oh, there'll be some decent bags caught. After all, this is still Rayburn, and lots of 8- and 9-pounders still swim here. But don't expect anybody to catch one of those pigs 3 days in a row, as winner Ish Monroe did at Amistad. Like a wounded superstar athlete, Big Sam isn't at its best, and asking it to produce its normal numbers is beyond reason.
Before getting into more bite information, as well as BassFan's recommendation for the Top 10 to watch, let's take a closer look at the lake itself.
Lake Profile
> Lake Name: Sam Rayburn Reservoir
> Type of Water: Lowland impoundment
> Surface Acres: 114,000
> Primary structure/cover: Standing timber, brushy shoreline, creek channels
> Average depth: 15 feet
> Species: Largemouths
> Length limit: 14 inches
> Reputation: Long considered one of the best big-bass lakes in the country
> Weather: Cooler than normal recently
> Water temperature: Low 60s to 70, depending on location
> Water visibility: 3 feet on the average
> Water level: 1-2 feet below full pool and 7-8 feet below normal for mid-March (significant because much of the shoreline brush is dry)
> Fish in: 1 to 5 feet
> Fish phase: At least some in each spawn phase, but mostly post-spawn
> Primary patterns: Jerkbaits, Senkos, sight-fishing, spinnerbaits, some flipping, others
> Winning weight: 68 pounds (4 days)
> Cut weight (Top 12): 48 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 2.5 for Rayburn
> Biggest factor: Weather
> Wildcard: Can anybody get the deep fish to bite?
Give It a Rest!
The Texas Tournament Trail (TTT) visited Rayburn last week and brought 200 boats. The Bassmaster Southern Tour was here with 133 boats the week before that. The lake has also hosted numerous local events, many of which were rescheduled from neighboring Toledo Bend, where the water's way down.
What are the chances that the Elite Series anglers will find fish that haven't seen the entire bait selection in the Cabela's catalog during the past few weeks? Not too good.
"This lake has probably had more pressure than any in the country over the past month," said Texas veteran Zell Rowland, who's fished Rayburn since he was a boy. "There's been so many boats on the lake that I'm fishing stuff that I've never fished before.
"With that many boats going from pocket-to-cove and pocket-to-creek, it really makes the shallow bite almost go away. And I don't see anybody catching anything real deep either."
Anglers aren't the only group gathered in the Jasper area. It's spring-break week for a lot of colleges, and there are plenty of students around in search of a water-related good time. And they're not likely to be deterred much by the forecast for cool, stormy weather.
Todd Faircloth says the shallow fish in his home lake are spooky because much of the brush that gives them security is above the waterline.
Fortresses High and Dry
Flipping brush would ordinarily be a popular pattern at Rayburn this time of year. Not so this time, because the waterline is below a lot of the vegetation.
"There's just not a whole lot of cover because the lake's so low," said Jasper resident Todd Faircloth. "Those shallow fish are spooky because they don't have a lot of protection. There's usually a lot more cover.
"The lake's only about a foot low, but it's usually 7 or 8 feet (above full pool) this time of year. It'd be better if it was 3 or 4 feet higher, or a foot or 2 lower. If it was lower, that would put the fish in the grass."
Bucks Abound
Some anglers say there are still some big female fish on the spawning beds. Others think the spawn, for all intents and purposes, is over, and all that's available to be caught off the beds are smaller males guarding the fry.
"There are a lot of males on the beds, but almost no females," said Texan Alton Jones. "If you asked me if this would be won by sight-fishing, the answer would be a resounding no. There'll be some big females caught, but they won't hold up for 4 days."
Texas' Takahiro Omori has had a lot past success on the lake, but he said he's not on many lunkers this time either. "It's not easy to catch big ones, I think. After Amistad, this seems like it's not good. But somebody will figure it out. I think it will take 16 or 18 pounds to make the (Top 50) cut."
Not What Was Expected
Missouri veteran Denny Brauer had looked forward to this event since the Elite Series schedule was announced last summer. Now he's pretty sure it won't live up to his initial expectations.
"In all the years I've fished Rayburn, and that's a ton going back to the '80s and '90s, it's probably been my favorite lake," he said. "I've got a couple of wins (Bassmaster Invitationals in 1984 and '86) and a lot of high finishes.
"But I've never had as crappy of a practice as I've had the last 3 days. These fish have had a lot of baits to look at and a cold front came through, and that doesn't make for happy campers. I'm just going to do what I do best and go up the rivers, and hopefully things will turn around."
Top 10 To Watch
Here's BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch at Rayburn today. In no particular order, they are:
1) Kevin VanDam – He didn't finish in the Top 5 for the first time in five BASS events last week: he was 6th. It's ridiculous to even consider not picking him for the Top 10.
2) Rick Clunn – Won here in 2002, and the need for some good thinking this time doesn't hurt his chances.
3) Shaw Grigsby – Has won here three times (1988, 1990, 1992). Yeah, he's struggled big-time lately, and his last Rayburn win was 14 years ago, but all his wins were in even-numbered years.
4) Ish Monroe – Leads the Elite Series points and is third in the FLW Tour points race. He's just plain hot.
5) Greg Hackney – He's still fishing well, and this lake suits his style. The tougher the bite, the better he is.
6) Alton Jones – He's a homestater who seems to have a solid handle on what the fish are doing.
7) Zell Rowland – Local veteran struggled in practice, but has enough experience on this lake to pull something decent together. Think post-spawn topwater bite.
8) Takahiro Omori – Won here in 2001, and gives off a sneaky suspicion that he might not have done all that poorly in practice.
9) Todd Faircloth – There's no type of condition on his home lake he hasn't seen – and adjusted for – in the past.
10) Edwin Evers – Has a win and two other Top 10s here. That type of consistency can't be ignored.
Notable
> VanDam caught plenty of fish in practice, but they weren't of the quality he'd have preferred. "As for the shallow fish, the numbers are good, but the size isn't," he said. "If somebody can get on some deeper fish, they might do real well. I wasn't able to do that."
> Jimmy Mize caught an 8-pounder on the final practice day, but that didn't do a lot for his confidence. "Normally 17 or 18 pounds isn't that hard to catch here. But this time, if you don't get one big bite, it's going to be hard to get a big sack."
> Georgia's Eric Nethery won the Rayburn Southern Tour here 2 weeks ago with 67-14 over 3 days, but that event took place just as a huge wave of spawners moved up. Texas' Scott David sight-fished to win the TTT event last week with 35-08 for 2 days.
> After the first 2 days of practice, BassFan Big Stick Jarrett Edwards still hadn't decided on a plan of attack. To read his report, click here.
> BassFan News is brought to you by Rapala.
Weather Report
> Thurs., March 16 – Scattered Strong Storms – high 78°/low 58°
- Wind: From the SW at 6 mph
> Fri., March 17 – Partly Cloudy – 71°/50°
- Wind: From the NE at 8 mph
> Sat., March 18 – Scattered Thunderstorms – 66°/58°
- Wind: From the E at 9 mph
> Sun., March 19 – Scattered Thunderstorms – 71°/61°
- Wind: From the E/SE at 9
