Much has changed in the world of professional bass fishing since last year's FLW Tour opener at Lake Okeechobee. The big Florida impoundment has undergone some alterations over that time as well, but the general outlook for the tournament is pretty much the same as it was 12 months ago.
The fishing is tough.
Okeechobee was pounded by hurricanes last fall for the second year in a row, and most of it is mud-choked and has zero sub-surface visibility. In that regard, very little has changed since last year. But the 200-angler field has had to find new stuff to fish, because the hurricanes and their aftereffects have scrambled everything again.
The biggest difference this year is that the Monkey Box, where most of the field congregated in 2005, won't be a factor. The hydrilla that held a substantial number of big fish there last year is history and the area is barren water, for the most part.
The big party this week will be in Moonshine Bay, which could host as much as 75 percent of the field. Tinhouse (to the north) and the Cornfields (in the south) are about the only other options.
BassFan Lake Profile
Before getting into more detail, here's a look at the tournament waters:
> Lake Name: Lake Okeechobee
> Type of Water: Shallow Florida natural lake
> Surface Acres: 448,000 acres (730 square miles)
> Primary structure/cover: Vegetation (many types)
> Average depth: 11 to 14 feet
> Species: Largemouths only
> Length limit: 12 inches (slot limit is waived for tournaments)
> Reputation: Prolific fishery with potential for explosive weights (30-pound-plus bags), but big fish are only in certain areas
> Weather: Breezy with partly cloudy skies and daytime high temperatures ranging from 66 to 80 degrees, with a chance for morning showers on day 1
> Water temp: Around 60 degrees, warming slightly as the week progresses
> Water visibility/color: Pretty clear in Moonshine Bay, but vast majority of lake is chocolate-brown and unfishable
> Water level: Normal
> Fish in: 1 to 4 1/2 feet of water
> Fish phase: Pre-spawn/spawn/post-spawn
> Primary patterns: Flipping, Rat-L-Traps, crankbaits, jerkbaits, Senkos, craws, others
> Winning weight: 30-13 (final 2 days)
> Cut weight (Top 10): 26-03
> Check weight: 15-07 (75th place)
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 2 for Okeechobee
> Biggest factors: Crowds, muddy water
> Wildcard: Again, can someone figure out the muddy water?
Chocolate Milk, Anyone?
"Did you ever eat Cocoa Pebbles when you were a kid?" asked Dave Lefebre, who was 26th here last year. "Well, the lake looks like that little bit of milk that was left on the bottom when you were done. It's nasty, and it seems to be getting worse every day. Unless you want to fish in the mud, you're going to have to fish in the crowd."
The crowd will be in Moonshine, just as it was for the Okeechobee Southeastern Stren two weeks ago. It's a bigger area (about 4 miles long and 1 to 2 miles wide) than the Monkey Box was, but doesn't feature as much open water. If that 75%-of-the-field estimate proves accurate and 150 boats head that way, it'll be a zoo-like situation as each angler tries to find his own nook or cranny.
As for the fish, well, everybody hopes they'll warm up to the occasion. "I think they might bite during the tournament because of the warming trend," Lefebre said. "Those fish have to eat, and they're going to bite better as it gets warmer.
"Still, for me, there's no comparison to last year. This is worse by far. It's the worst I've ever felt going into a tournament."
Big Ones Hard to Find
Kelly Jordon, last year's winner, said he got some good bites in practice on Sunday – just a day after 40 mph winds pounded the lake. Then on Monday, he connected only with dinks.
"I can get a bunch of bites, but I don't have a big-fish area like I had last year," he said. "The Monkey Box was a big-fish area and not a place where you caught a whole lot of fish. I just haven't run into a school of big ones yet.
"When it's muddy like this, they don't bite very good. It's real hard to catch them and it's just going to concentrate the field even further."
He said the rising temperatures should help, but the effects of the warmth could be offset by more powerful winds. "They might get on a big-time feed and weights could go way up, but a real strong wind could change things again in a heartbeat. This is a crazy place to fish sometimes."
What Are You Guys Afraid Of?
One angler who has at least a fair amount of confidence is Bobby Lane of nearby Lakeland, who was 7th here last year and 2nd in the recent Stren event. He flipped grass mats in the Stren and caught 36-04 over the final 2 days.
"It's fishing about the same as it was for the Stren," he said. "The water's a little cooler and that's keeping some of the smaller ones from biting, but I'm getting pretty much the same bites in the same areas, if not a few more."
He said numerous patterns will garner limits, but a couple of techniques will entice the bigger bites. "Spinnerbaits and flipping will get the big-fish stringers," he said.
More Practice Time Needed
Brent Chapman closed the season with a flourish (victories at the Busch Shootout and Cabela's Top Gun Championship), but he isn't confident about starting the new campaign in the same fashion.
"I'm still scouting," he said. "There's not a whole lot to fish, and what there is got screwed up by the winds (on Saturday). We need a few calm days for things to settle back down.
"The key is finding good water quality, and the best this year isn't half as good as the best last year."
He's concerned about what the future holds for the famous lake. "I've talked to guys who fished here in the (1980s) and I've seen myself how far downhill it's gone over the last 6 or 7 years. If there's a hurricane next year of any magnitude, that might almost be a knockout punch."
A Place Of His Own
Ish Monroe will do his best to stay out of Moonshine Bay. "I don't like crowds because then luck becomes too much of a factor," he said. "Anybody can get a lucky bite when you've got that many guys in the same area."
He said Okeechobee is vastly overrated as a big-fish lake when compared to a couple in his home state of California.
"They talk about this place like everybody catches giant bass here," he said. "Well, 10 pounds a day gets you a check and you need 26 to 28 over 2 days to make the Top 10. On the Delta or Clear Lake, if you put 100 boats out there, you're going to need 18 or 20 pounds a day to make the Top 10."
Cut Estimates
The field of 200 cuts to 10 anglers after Thursday (day 2). Here are some guesses on cut weight.
> Jordon: "I don't have a prediction. At this point, I have no idea what the weight will be."
> Lefebre: "My prediction is about 24 pounds. Twelve pounds a day would be pretty good."
> Lane: "I'd say 26 to 28 pounds for the Top 10 and 35 to 40 to be leading it."
> Chapman: "I had 25-14 last year and I finished 11th, so I'll probably say 23 or 24. If the wind comes up again, it might not take that much."
Launch/Weigh-In Info
Anglers take off each morning at 7 a.m. from Roland Martin's Marina. Wednesday's and Thursday's weigh-ins will be held there beginning at 3 p.m. Friday's and Saturday's weigh-ins will be held at the Wal-Mart store located at 1005 W. Sugarland Highway in Clewiston, beginning at 4 p.m.
FLW's Family Fun Zone is open Friday and Saturday outside the weigh-in tent in the Wal-Mart parking lot. It opens Friday at 2 p.m. and Saturday at 11 a.m.
Notable
> Every angler that BassFan spoke to said the field will have numerous pattern options to choose from. "Several things will work, but I don't know what will work the best," Tommy Biffle said. "The big bites are what's going to make the difference."
> Bryan Thrift of North Carolina won the recent Stren event here with a Chatterbait (a type of swimming jig produced by Rad Lures of South Carolina). It produced 19 of his 20 weigh-in fish.
Weather Forecast
Here's the Weather Channel's extended forecast for the tournament.
> Wed, Jan. 18 – Partly Cloudy With A.M. Showers – high 66°/low 46°
-Wind: From the NNW at 16 mph
> Thu, Jan. 19 – Partly Cloudy – 74°/56°
- Wind: From the NE at 12 mph
> Fri, Jan. 20 – Partly Cloudy – 78°/60°
- Wind: From the E at 11 mph
> Sat, Jan. 21 – Partly Cloudy – 80°/59°
- Wind: From the ESE at 11 mph
