Omori And Walker Top Anglers To Watch

Reports from Toho paint a contradictory picture. Some FLW pros say they're getting 20 to 30 bites a day and they expect the cut to be around 30 pounds. Others just scratch their heads and wonder how they

can put together two 10-pound sacks. Then there's the guys in the middle who think they can catch 15 pounds on day 1, then 10 on day 2.

That creates one, giant malaise of expectations as anglers launch this morning on Toho. Throw in the threat of a fog delay, and a cold front due to blow through tomorrow, and the tournament is truly up in the air.

Thankfully, there is a record to go by. The recent Toho Bassmaster took place under similar conditions. The weather has been a little warmer since that tournament, and the water temperature has risen a bit to around 60 degrees, but the big staging fish still aren't biting with zeal and there's no bed-fish to speak of.

The Bassmaster cut was 20-07 for 12th (21-02 for 10th) and Takahiro Omori won with a 4-day total of 50-11 (about 12-06 average). His victory proved two things. One, moving baits can work even when the bite is slow. And two, one big bite can be enough to make the difference.

The Mid-Range Push

One significant development over the past 2 weeks seems to be the appearance of mid-size fish. That could push the weights up significantly. FLW Tour rookie Bobby Lane, who lives in Lakeland, Fla. finished 7th at the Okeechobee opener. He knows Toho well and said the mid-range fish have definitely appeared.

"It's fishing pretty good for me," he said. "The mid-range fish are showing up and the weights have been going up for me every day. I'm getting 40 to 50 bites a day. I haven't been swinging on them, but I can tell I've had a couple of 25-pound days, and a couple of 28-pound days. I've probably fished Toho at least four times a month for the past 20 years and it's fishing pretty well."

He said he's caught some giants and he's had an all-day bite. "I've been smashing them from 8:00 until about 5:30 or 6:00 every day. If I stay in a good area, I can catch them all day, every day."

Given the cold front that's due to arrive on Thursday, he said a big day 1 sack is critical. "I think you definitely need to catch a big sack today – 20 to 25 pounds. Then you just need to go out and catch a decent limit Thursday. Things will totally change on Friday and Saturday after the weather, so you need a good mix of flipping and casting fish – topwater too. You'll need to have checked everything out."

> His guess for the Top 10 cut weight: "I'm saying 32 to 33 pounds. I talked to four or five guys yesterday who hadn't had a bite in 3 days, but I went in front of them and got 15 bites. Maybe I'm doing the right thing. For the guys who put in their time and do their homework, it shouldn't be a problem to catch a 20-pound bag on day 1, then back that up with 10 to 12 pounds on day 2."

Fog Factor

Scott Martin, another Florida resident, said he's seen the mid-range fish too, but he thinks the field will be split. "Some guys will not catch a whole lot, and a few guys will catch big bags," he said. "There's some fish starting to show up. They're not necessarily shallow and you can catch them a variety of ways, but the average size of the fish has definitely gone up.

"I got here right after the (Bassmaster), and most fish I caught then were barely keepers. Now they've turned into 3 1/2- to 5-pounders."

But Martin said the threat of fog could prevent any plans to fish other lakes like Kissimmee. "We might have some fog to deal with. Yesterday, it was still foggy at 11:00. We might not get out in time today if the fog rolls in, which could cut the day in half.

"A big day 1 bag is very important, but a fog delay could really hurt the guys who plan to lock through. You can only fit 12 boats in the locks. If we have a fog delay and you don't have any Toho fish, you might be in trouble.

"The cold front probably won't affect the flip bite as much as the spinnerbait and Trap bite," he noted. "And there's still a worm bite. But you have to fish everything slow. You cannot get fish to react much to moving stuff. Even with Traps, they're biting a yo-yoing retrieve."

He also stressed the importance of a big bite. "The way it's fishing right now, caching a big fish is the key. That'll push a 10-pound sack up to the 16- or 17-pound range. The flipping bite has been fairly productive and anybody who flips has good chance at a big fish. A spinnerbait might get you 9 pounds, but that won't be enough."

His guess for the cut weight: "I'd say 26 to 28 pounds."

Wicked Wind of the North

It's long been held that Florida fish bite with a south wind. But the wind's been blowing from the north for the past month and there's no sign of a near-future shift. That's a big problem on Toho right now – at least according to Terry Segraves.

He's yet another Florida resident who knows Toho well. "I'll sum up the fishing this way, it's pretty tough," he said. "I think it'll be won by someone fishing slowly.

"If you can get a few bites, and get lucky enough to get one decent fish, you might be okay. The conditions now are highly unusual, but I've seen it before. This cold weather has shut it down. We've had a north wind for a month or so. Until we get steady winds out of the south, I don't think they'll trigger. Even if we get a south wind, they might not trigger until the next full moon."

Overall, he's had a tough practice. He said the bite's even slower than it was in the Bassmaster event. He didn't fish that tournament, but he followed it closely. "I feel I'm a good Rat-L-Trap fisherman," he said. "But I haven't caught one on a Rat-L-Trap yet. It doesn't seem like you can catch anything with a fast-moving bait. You have to slow down and fish very methodically, and it's been mostly a soft-plastics bite for me."

He said the tough conditions could favor veterans who are often more comfortable with slowing down. "It could very easily favor the veterans. You basically have to go into a place with confidence, work it real hard and methodically and really slow down."

> His guess for the cut weight: "I couldn't even venture a guess. The Bassmaster cut was around 20 pounds, and I'm thinking less than that."

Top 10 to Watch

Obvious watch candidates are the two-tour anglers who had a good Bassmaster tournament here 2 weeks ago. But there's a lot of FLW-only anglers who are hot, or traditionally strong in Florida. If the tournament truly becomes a test of patience, watch out for the veterans who have the wherewithal to slow down and stick with an area.

Here's BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch (in no particular order):

1) Takahiro Omori – He took a beating at the Okeechobee FLW but came back strong and won the Toho Bassmaster. He was throwing rattlebaits and stuck a big one. That big fish made the difference. It'll be interesting to see if he returns to his Kissimmee hotspot, or gives it up for lost.

2) David Walker – He's red-hot at No. 7 in the world and leads the BASS points. He's still steaming after his heartbreaking 2nd-place finish here 2 weeks ago. If anyone's due for a win, it's Walker.

3) Bobby Lane – An obvious local pick. He finished 6th at Okeechobee and said he had 'em wired during the Toho practice. If he's truly on fish like he says, he could easily be the day 1 leader.

4) Dean Rojas – The Toho legend is fishing well. He was in a strong position to make the cut at the Toho Bassmaster, then fell apart. And he nearly won the Okeechobee FLW. He has something to prove this week.

5) Kelly Jordon – The Okeechobee winner stumbled at the Toho Bassmaster with a 62nd. He's No. 8 in the world and a strong flipper, but needs a big day 1 sack.

6) Andre Moore – He designed the Sweet Beaver – one of the hottest baits going right now – and he's finally backing up his bait designs with a strong run of high finishes. Can he finish out Florida with a bang?

7) Luke Clausen – The 2004 FLW Champion is proving he's more than a flash in the pan. He was 16th at the Okeechobee FLW, 40th at the Toho Bassmaster and 24th at the Harris Chain Bassmaster. Even though he's the FLW Champion, he's still under the radar and wants desperately to win a regular-season event.

8) Alton Jones – He's 9th in the world and hasn't made huge waves yet this season, but he will. The question is whether he'll make those waves at Toho, or after the Tour swings north. Jones can both flip and worm with the best of them.

9) Greg Hackney – Hackney gets the nod for an odd reason – he's off to a slow start. In three Florida tournaments so far he's finished 66th, 37th and 66th. He was the hottest two-tour angler last year and finished 2nd in both the Bassmaster and FLW points. Florida has dealt him three bruised eyes, and he's hoping "Toho take two" won't give him a black one.

10) Brent Chapman – Quietly fishing his way toward the top, Chapman's a smart angler who has the mental control that these tough tournaments demand. A Top 10 threat in every tournament.

Others to Watch

> Clark Wendlandt – Needs a strong showing after his 174th at Okeechobee.

> Larry Nixon – Didn't have much practice after a Top 6 finish at the Harris Chain. Wasn't on fish yesterday, but he's in the zone with the slow worm.

> Ish Monroe – He's done well in Florida so far and was 19th in the Bassmaster here.

> David Dudley – A sight-fishing specialist who's done well in Florida. But without sight-fish, can he crack the Top 10?

> Terry Segraves – A Toho veteran with vast local knowledge, but said he had a tough practice. Is he hiding something?

> Scott Martin – The Florida factor plays strong with him too.

> Rick Clunn – The name says it all. Hasn't had a great start, but if he wants to return to form, he has to start right here.

Notable

> BassFan Big Sticks John Murray and Bill McDonald had "okay" practices. To read their take on the lake, Click here to go On Tour With the BassFan Big Sticks.

Weather Report

Here's the Weather Channel's forecast for the tournament days. Note the cold front due Thursday night that's expected to drop temperatures up to 20°.

> Wed, Feb 9 – Mostly Sunny – 79°/59°
- Wind: From the SW at 8 mph

> Thur, Feb 10 – Morning Showers – 72°/39°
- Wind: From the W/NW at 16 mph

> Fri, Feb 11 – Mostly Sunny – 60°/39°
- Wind: From the N/NW at 12 mph

> Sat, Feb 12 – Partly Cloudy – 68°/43°
- Wind: From the N/NW at 9 mph