Changing Conditions Have Mississippi A Bit Off Track

By John Johnson
BassFan Senior Editor

Three-pound fish – be they largemouths, smallmouths or spots – rarely play a big role in Bassmaster Elite Series events. The circuit annually visits some of the top hawg factories in the country and 25-pound sacks, while not commonplace, are usually within the realm of reasonable possibility.

Things will be a bit different this week on a stretch of the Mississippi River that runs along the western border of Wisconsin and marks the eastern boundaries of Minnesota and Iowa. There are millions of bass in there and nearly as many ways to catch them, but primarily due to the much shorter Northern growing period, they normally don't get as large as their cousins in Alabama, Florida or Louisiana.

The sixth stop in the eight-event season, which will be staged out of La Crosse, Wis., could prove to be one of the most interesting and significant derbies of the campaign. It's the first leg of a 2-week foray into the Badger State and the run-up to Green Bay (the heretofore "mystery event"), which some competitors are referring to as "a crapshoot."

The Mississippi represents the last chance for the shallow-water specialists to perform in their preferred element, and there are quite a few of those guys who need to make big upward moves on the points list to get into contention for 2013 Classic berths. It's also an opportunity for Angler of the Year (AOY) leader Brent Chapman to pad his advantage on that list, as the Kansan is a skinny-water enthusiast at heart.

Before getting into some details about the bite, here's some of the lowdown on the fishery itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake name: Mississippi River
> Type of water: Floodplain river with numerous locks and dams
> Surface acres: Unavailable (Pools 7, 8 and 9 stretch for approximately 70 miles)
> Primary structure/cover: Deadfall timber, brush, weeds, lily pads, riprap
> Primary forage: Crawfish, shad, bluegill
> Average depth: 5 feet
> Species: Largmouths dominate, but quite a few smallmouths live here
> Length limit: 14 inches
> Reputation: A good numbers fishery where the larger specimens often gang up in specific places
> Weather: A substantial mid-week front will cool things down considerably, leaving high temperatures for the event in low-80s with some thunderstorms possible for the weekend
> Water temp: Mid-70s
> Water visibility/color: A couple feet or more in some places and almost none in others. Overall, its clearing up as the effects of recent rains to the north subside
> Water level: A few feet high, but dropping
> Fish in: 6 feet and shallower
> Fish phase: Post-spawn/summer
> Primary patterns: Flipping, spinnerbaits, frogs, swim-jigs, plastics, shallow crankbaits, topwaters
> Winning weight: 70 pounds
> Cut weight (Top 12 after 3 days): 42 pounds
> Check weight (Top 50 after 2 days): 24 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 3 for the Mississippi River
> Biggest factors: Water level – if it continues to drop rapidly, the bite could be tough
> Biggest decision: Whether to make a long run through a lock and sacrifice fishing time
> Wildcard: A 4-pounder – they're less common here than many places the Elites visit, and thus much more valuable

Good, but Not Perfect

The massive Mississippi is in constant flux in regard to the conditions of its water, and it's even more temperamental than usual right now – at least for this time of year. A warmer-than-average spring in the region had the seasonal progression speeding along faster than normal, and then some cooler, wetter weather showed up to render it high and dirty.

Things had just about settled back down last week when a bunch of rain fell to the north, once again increasing the height and discoloration of the water. The effects are dissipating, but the episode hasn't completely passed.

"It's dropping pretty hard – going down about 6 inches a day," said guide John Bomkamp, a former high-level tournament competitor in the Upper Midwest. "It kind of makes fishing difficult because the fish are screwed up and don't know where to go with it dropping so fast.

"The color's getting better, though, and the current's still strong, but it's fishable now. You should see some good catches," he added, noting that he'd rate the current bite at about a 7 on a scale of 1 to 10.

Each of the three pools is at least 20 miles long and contains numerous side channels and backwaters, and there's abundant vegetation throughout the system.

The majority of the field is likely to remain in Pool 8 (the launch pool). Some will lock up to Pool 7, which is home to Onalaska Lake. Pool 9, which reportedly contains the dirtiest water, will probably see the lightest traffic.

A stiff southerly wind, reaching 30 mph at times, blew during most of the 2 1/2-day practice period, but is expected to subside somewhat for the tournament. It kept competitors from prospecting in specific locales that they thought would be fruitful.

"A south wind doesn't make navigation treacherous, but because it blows up against the current, it dirties the water up," Bomkamp said. "That isn't helping things, but there are plenty of places where guys can get out of it and fish."

Taking a Look With BassGold

Generating a BassGold.com Pattern Report for the upper Mississippi this time of year confirms that backwaters and topwaters will be key.

The "Macro Factors" bar graph (generally where on a body of water fish have been found) shows that anglers who have finished 1st-5th in tournaments there this time of year have fished mostly "shoreline" and second, "backwater." But if you know the fishery, you'll know that shoreline in almost all cases equates to a backwater, so backwaters are the deal. More than 80% of the time they factor in wins or high finishes.

Backwaters also mean largemouths more than smallies, which mean heavier weights, which mean wins. Smallies could factor in, but some tournaments have been won with all largemouths.

The "Habitat Factors" graph shows that vegetation and wood are fished most by high finishers – no surprise when talking about backwaters. The most successful habitat is vegetation – "emergent veg" (vegetation that emerges above the water) and "submergent veg" (below the surface) are tied – with wood second-most successful.

But as often happens with BassGold, when you manipulate the "Habitat Factors" bar graph, you can see a difference between winning and placing (2nd-5th): Winners most often fish emergent veg and wood.

Bait-wise, one has been overwhelmingly successful on the upper Mississippi this time of year: topwaters, or more specifically, frogs. Highly unusual, very cool. This means any number of anglers, no matter where they're from in the country, have a good shot at doing well. Example: then-Californian Fred Roumbanis won an EverStart there in August 2005 fishing a frog in a place that reminded him of the California Delta.

Still, while frogs are by far responsible for the most wins this time of year (with jig-n-pigs second), BassGold shows the bait that's gotten the most 2nd-5th finishes is an iconic one for this area of the country: the swim-jig.

Last but not least, weight. The weight data isn't as cut-and-dried as the pattern data, but indicates a winning weight that will average in the mid-teens per day.

Field Notes

Following are practice notes from a few of the anglers who'll be competing this week.

Jason Williamson
"A lot of the backwaters being muddied up has made it pretty tough on me. I'm catching a few, but not as many as I'd like to be.

"I'm just junk-fishing and I feel like I can catch five. I've had some success down on the lower river in Iowa – I finished second in a (Bassmaster) Open down there – but the river had been stable for quite some time.

"I haven't found one certain thing that's dynamite – I'm just going around and catching one this way and one that way. If somebody finds some good water clarity on the main river, a place that's been protected and has an abundance of milfoil, that guy should do really well. A guy like that could stay in one area and have a big advantage."

Greg Vinson
"I fished the upper pool (Monday) and the launch pool (Tuesday) and had about an equal amount of success on both. I haven't gotten near as many bites as I did when I was here before the cutoff and I haven't gotten the same quality, either.

"I've caught a fair number of fish, but I'm concerned about the quality. I'm not seeing the 3- and 4-pounders that I did before. If I can get some of those, I should be okay.

"The water's actually come down a little bit since we've been here, but it's still moving at a high velocity and it has a lot of color. For me, it's taking a lot of stuff out of play that I'd thought had potential."

Terry Butcher
"I've had a decent practice, but it hasn't been great. I'm thinking 15 or 16 pounds a day, if you can do that for 4 days, that should be pretty good. I haven't caught a lot of fish over 3 1/2 pounds, but I've had a few of them and some 3s.

"I'm not overly confident. I sure feel better than I did after (practice for) the last one, but that one turned out okay (he was 22nd at Toledo Bend). This is a shallow-water fishery, so it's a little more my style."

Shaw Grigsby
"Having not been here or ever fished it before or anything like that, I don't know what to go on or expect. I'm catching fish, but I think most everybody is catching fish. The guys who can get a few of those good bites are going to do really well.

"This could be a lot like Bull Shoals. I caught the snot out of the fish there, but ended up 81st because I never got a good bite. I'm really apprehensive – I could do okay, or I might not do any good at all.

"I think Pool 8 is where most of the people will be, but there could be a lot of benefits to locking. You'd be taking a chance, but you'd probably have a lot less people to deal with."

Cliff Crochet
"I had a couple of bites (Monday), but nothing to get excited about. Then (Tuesday) was kind of tough on me.

"This water isn't all that muddy to me – it's all fishable. I'm not sure when it came up, but it seems like the fish haven't had a chance to get adjusted to it yet. I'm in places where I should be getting bites, but I'm not. This place is bigger than it seems and there's a lot of good-looking water, but also a lot of dead water.

"This isn't going to be a deal where if you catch a limit, you'll be happy. They live here and you're going to have to catch them."

Paul Elias
"I think it'll be a slugfest. It should be similar to Bull Shoals, but it might take a pound or so more to get a check. It'll probably take somewhere in the 26-pound range (for 2 days).

"I think I can catch some, but I'll have to see how everything goes. I had 2 good practice days, and now it's going to be a matter of how many people show up on the same stuff. There's several ways to catch them – this place is just a maze of water and a maze of fish."

John Crews
"I don't think I'm dialed in quite yet. I can catch fish, but I don't have anything I feel real strong about and I'm not sure which pool I'm going to start in.

"I'm just not catching the right ones, I don't feel like. It's going to take more than 15 pounds a day to do real well and I've still got some work to do to get there.

"This place seems like a lot of water, but a lot of areas will be fishing tight. A lot of guys will spread out, but some will be on top of each other and that will be an interesting dynamic."

Top 10 to Watch

With the above in mind and more, here are BassFan's recommendations for the Top 10 to watch in this event.

1. Bill Lowen – He's always a major threat anywhere the water's moving, and changing conditions should give him even more of an advantage. The solid year he's enjoying should get even better this week.

2. Brent Chapman – He won at Toledo Bend 2 weeks ago by fishing deep structure and now he gets a crack at some skinny water, which is actually more his forté. A fifth Top-5 in six events certainly isn't out of the question.

3. Dean Rojas – Frog imitations have been used to notch victories at this place in the past, and nobody's more likely than him to add to that list. A high finish here would give him some breathing room for the last two events in regard to 2013 Classic qualification.

4. Greg Hackney – He's had another up-and-down campaign, but he always gets real tough once the calendar turns to summer. His third Sunday appearance of the year is a distinct possibility.

5. Fred Roumbanis – It's been nearly 7 years since he won an EverStart here, but he hasn't forgotten how he did it and the same technique (frogging) just might work again. Needs a bump up the points list to get into serious Classic contention.

6. Edwin Evers – He's as good as they get in off-colored water. At No. 8 in the points, he still has a shot at the AOY title that he covets, but he'll need to be extremely strong the rest of the way.

7. Matt Herren – June is usually a superb month for him, and this year has been no exception thus far (he was 8th at Toledo Bend). He excels at making adjustments, and that should bode well for him this week.

8. Kevin Short – He won on the Mississippi out of Davenport, Iowa (pools 17-19) in 2009, but has fared no better than 30th in the last 17 Elite events and has logged four consecutive finishes in the 50s. He badly needs something to reverse his momentum, and maybe being back on this river will do it.

9. Kevin VanDam – He's competed on Sunday just once this year and his average finish over the previous three events has been just a shade better than 40th place. Those trends are likely to change in his home region.

10. Tommy Biffle – Two straight finishes in the mid-60s have him inching downward toward the Classic cutline after a solid start to the season. He needs to begin heading back in the other direction, and this is his kind of place.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Anglers will launch at 6:15 a.m. CST each day from Veterans Freedom Park on Clinton Street in La Crosse. Weigh-ins will get under way at 3:15 p.m. in the same location.

Notable

> Brent Chapman will seek his second consecutive victory this week and Aaron Martens will try to move closer to the Classic cutoff after a difficult start to the season. To read their BassFan Big Stick practice wrapups, click here.

> For more info about John Bomkamp's guide service, click here.

Weather Forecast

> Thurs., June 21 –Sunny - 80°/58°
- Wind: From the W/NW at 15 mph

> Fri., June 22 – Sunny - 81°/58°
- Wind: From the W/NW at 10 mph

> Sat., June 23 – Isolated T-Storms - 81°/66°
- Wind: From the S/SE at 6 mph

> Sun., June 24 – Partly Cloudy - 84°/58°
- Wind: From the NE at 6 mph