NOAA is predicting an "above-normal" hurricane season this year for the Atlantic. Its experts are projecting a 75% chance that the Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal this year.
For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes – of which three to five could become major hurricanes of category 3 strength or higher.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with peak activity occurring August through October. NOAA stated: "With expectations for an active season, it is critically important that people who live in East and Gulf coastal areas as well as the Caribbean be prepared."
Of course, the NOAA experts could be wrong, as they were last year. The 2006 prediction "proved to be too high when an unexpected El Niño rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen," NOAA stated. "When storms did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land."
Gerry Bell of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center said: "There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña will form, and if it does how strong it will be. If La Niña develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Niña becomes. Even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season."
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity occurring August through October. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal forecast in August just prior to the historical peak of the season.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal forecast in August just prior to the historical peak of the season.
