Swindle, Big Bronzebacks Set To Share Stage

By John Johnson
BassFan Senior Editor

The 2016 Bassmaster Angler of the Year Championship won't be quite as anticlimactic as the 2015 version, when Aaron Martens could've claimed the points title without even showing up for the derby. Leader Gerald Swindle isn't a mathematical lock for his second career AOY going into the event at Minnesota's Mille Lacs Lake, but suffice it to say that his odds are really good.

If Swindle catches a single fish this week, then Keith Combs becomes the only competitor who could possibly overtake him. If Combs wins the tournament, Swindle must only finish 43rd or better, which he's done in every full-field Elite Series event this year. That will require beating just seven anglers in the 50-man field.

Most of the Top 25 on the points list will be fishing primarily for a greater share of the AOY purse as their berths in the 2017 Bassmaster Classic at Texas' Lake Conroe are all but secured. The other 30 will attempt to either stay on the right side of the Classic cutoff (the magic number currently sits at 39th in the AOY standings), or elbow their way in.

They'll do it on a vast body of water that's home to an almost unfathomable number of massive smallmouths. Mille Lacs, a highly regulated fishery that also harbors some good-sized largemouths along with a big population of trophy walleyes, is set to make an eye-popping debut as a tour-level venue. Bags of brown fish exceeding 25 pounds are a near-certainty and a 30-pound stringer or two is possible.

Some anglers reported having a hard time pinning down the big smallmouths in practice – the fish are transitioning from their summer mode to the fall feed-up period and are scattered at various depths around the lake. The chilly weather that the area is experiencing will only help matters, however, and more of the bruisers should be catchable when the tournament gets under way Thursday morning.

Those who figure things out are set to have one of the greatest fishing experiences of their lives.

"If the wind doesn't blow unbelievably hard, guys are going to have arms that are black and blue just from pinching themselves," said former FLW Tour pro Mark Fisher, who's on the lake frequently in his role as director of field promotions for Rapala (the company's U.S. operations are headquartered in nearby Minnetonka, Minn.). "The place is a riot.

"There are some lakes around the country that really stand out for the quality of their fishing, and this one ranks right up there. It's understandable why B.A.S.S. brought this event here – it's a heck of a resource and it's set up for a lot of guys to have a good time."

Before delving deeper into the bite, here's some intel on the fishery itself:

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake name: Mille Lacs
> Type of water: Inland glacial lake
> Surface acres: 132,500 (Minnesota's second-largest lake)
> Primary structure/cover: Rocks, ledges, weed lines
> Primary forage: Crayfish, yellow perch, shiners
> Average depth: 20 feet
> Species: Smallmouths, largemouths
> Length limit: 12 inches
> Reputation: A world-class smallmouth destination with an abundance of 5-pound bronzebacks
> Weather: A mix of sun and rain with relatively cool daytime temperatures
> Water temp: Mid to high 60s
> Water visibility/color: A dozen feet or more in some places/tinted
> Water level: Normal
> Fish in: 4 to 25 feet
> Fish phase: Transitioning rapidly from summer to fall
> Primary patterns: Dropshots, tubes, jigs, crankbaits, jerkbaits, topwaters, shaky-heads, small swimbaits
> Winning weight: 72 pounds (3 days)
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 4 for Mille Lacs
> Biggest factors: Wind – it can make traversing the bowl-shaped lake extremely difficult
> Biggest decision: Whether to sort through 4-pounders with the hope of catching something bigger or stay on the move in a quest for 5s.
> Wildcard: Largemouths – an angler likely won't be able to ride green fish to victory, but they could be a big factor for a day or two.

Here's a closer look at one of Minnesota's fabled fishing destinations, courtesy of Navionics:

Lots to Gain or Lose

Of the 11 anglers in this week's event currently sitting outside the Classic cut-off, two are former Classic champions (Randy Howell, 42nd in the points, and Boyd Duckett, 44th). Gary Klein, a 30-time Classic qualifier, is also among that group at No. 46.

Another past Classic winner, Chris Lane, sits just inside the mark at 38th.

The same points system that's used for full-field events will apply this week – the winner gets 110 points, with each succeeding place receiving one point fewer. Last place (50th) at Mille Lacs will be worth 61 points, provided the angler brings at least one legal fish to the scale.

Here's a look at the point totals for the anglers in the 25th through 50th positions (note that Kevin VanDam's spot in the '17 Classic has been secured via his Classic Bracket victory, making him a double-qualifier for the moment):

26. Todd Faircloth -- 630
27. Skeet Reese -- 628
28. James Elam -- 622
29. Bradley Roy -- 607
30. Casey Ashley -- 594
31. Fred Roumbanis -- 584
32. Ish Monroe -- 582
33. Shaw E. Grigsby, Jr -- 582
34. Kevin VanDam -- 580
35. Jason Williamson -- 579
36. Clifford Pirch -- 577
37. Andy Montgomery -- 572
38. Chris Lane -- 571
39. Dave Lefebre -- 569
Current Classic cutoff
40. Keith Poche -- 569
41. Brent Ehrler -- 562
42. Randy Howell -- 562
43. Cliff Pace -- 561
44. Boyd Duckett -- 559
45. Stephen Browning -- 552
46. Gary Klein -- 544
47. Adrian Avena -- 544
48. Tommy Biffle -- 539
49. Kelly Jordon -- 533
50. Seth Feider -- 527

The cutoff could go as many as three spots deeper over the next few weeks as there are still three Opens to be contested (a Northern and two Centrals). An additional points-list berth would be added for an Open win by an already-qualified Elite competitor, or if the Open winner is an angler who did not compete in all three tournaments in that geographic division.

The anglers in places 36 through 38 are inside the cutoff due to double-qualifiers (reigning Classic champion Edwin Evers, BASSFest winner Greg Hackney and VanDam). The other spot opened up because Douglas Lake Southern Open winner David Mullins didn't fish the full-division slate.

Fat Sacks Needed

Daily weights exceeding a 20-pound average will likely be necessary to keep an angler near the top of the leaderboard this week. Smallmouths in the 5-pound class will be fairly routine – it'll be the ones over 6 that'll be the real difference-makers.

"You're going to see 6-pounders for sure and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 7 poke its head out," Fisher said.

He expects many of the eventual winning specimens to be pulled from the 18- to 24-foot depth range.

"There isn't going to be any bank-beating – there's a lot of little fish shallow, but the horses are all out deep. It'll be interesting to see how these guys are going to catch them. Like smallmouths anywhere, they're in one place one day and then gone the next and it's going to take a nimble character to put it all together."

This is the time of year when the smallies begin to feed heavily in preparation for the frigid Minnesota winter. They'll follow the crayfish or yellow perch and if their forage moves, a spot that harbored dozens of quality bronzebacks a day earlier could be totally vacated.

Good rocky cover exists throughout the lake and there's a substantial amount of submergent vegetation. The places where those exist in tandem are often prime fish-holding locales.

"The winner's going to win with smallmouths and it's going to be done with three or four patterns," said veteran Upper Midwest fishing writer Matt Straw. "You can't expect one pattern to win it for you.

"A jig and grub or some kind of plastic near the bottom will probably be the best overall, but the fish could suspend and then a crankbait will take over. A dropshot tears them up because a lot of times the active fish are 2 to 3 feet off the bottom."

One thing that will be difficult for some anglers to do is abandon a spot that's consistently kicking out fish that would be of superb quality at most smallmouth venues.

"If you're catching 3 1/2s to 4s, you're going to want to move," said Rapala field promotions coordinator Dan Quinn. "You're going to need more than a 4-pound average to do well – it'll have to be closer to 5.

"A few guys will figure it out and totally blow it away. If they're on a spot where the big fish get grouped up, they can go pluck five each day that'll weigh 25 to 28 pounds."

Field Notes

Following are some practice notes from a few of the anglers who'll be competing this week.

Justin Lucas
"I only caught four keepers in the first 2 days of practice. I think I'm doing the wrong stuff and I also think that for whatever reason, the fish aren't on the obvious stuff. It's been tough for me to find them. I've got to put something together or it's not going to be pretty come Thursday.

"I've tried both shallow and offshore. It's kind of like last year at Sturgeon Bay when it was tough when it was supposed to be phenomenal. You know big weights are going to be caught, but I've had a hard time getting a bite. I've talked to several people and only a couple had even caught a limit in one day.

There are some big ones here, though. There's a lot of 2- and 3-pounders, but there's also a lot of 4s and 5s."

Clifford Pirch
"It's not what I expected, but the last 3 years it's been like that when we've gone up North to these great fisheries. It seems like they've been just a little off from what they have the potential to be.

"You don't just catch them anywhere – it's not easy – but there are some great big ones here. It's really hard to say what I'm going to need to catch. The one thing I always say on the Elite Series is you just have to catch what lives there no matter what, whether they're biting or not. You're going to have to catch big ones.

"One thing I wish is I'd thrown in some warmer clothes – up here it's a season later than where I came from (Arizona)."

Kelly Jordon
"For a place that has so many big smallmouth, they've sure been hard to come by. I've caught a few and I've got some places I think I can run and catch some big ones. I just have to work for that first one and then go for No. 2, and if I can catch five they could be real good.

"I got a couple clues here and there in practice, but (Thursday) might be a whole different day. Stuff might change, and maybe for the better. It ought to be interesting.

"I've got some stuff I'm excited about, but a lot depends on whether other guys find the same group. With smallmouths, if you find them early in practice, usually they're never there when the tournament starts."

Brandon Palaniuk
"I'd day it's been tougher than I expected, but the thing is there's still a bunch of big ones. It seems like everybody I've talked to had caught at least one 5-pounder, if not multiple. Those will keep the weights up.

"They seem really scattered and I haven't been able to find them grouped up. They're spread out in all depths and that's making it tougher. You can't catch a bunch in one place, but I think a lot of things are going to change over the next few days.

"I think if you can catch 23 pounds 3 days in a row, that'll put you pretty dang close (to winning)."

Top 10 to Watch

With the above in mind and more, here (in no particular order) are BassFan's recommendations for the Top 10 to watch in his event.

1. Kevin VanDam – His 2016 ledger is the epitome of an up-and-down campaign – two full-field victories and a Classic bracket triumph offset by two finishes in the 90s and an 83rd last week at the Mississippi River. Look for him to finish strong on a great smallmouth fishery in his home region.

2. Seth Feider – The Bloomington, Minn. resident knows Mille Lacs so well that he opted to fish a local event on another body of water rather than practice on Monday. He nearly won at the Mississippi and should be right in the thick of things again.

3. Brandon Palaniuk – The Idahoan is always a threat to win wherever brown fish swim. His performance this year has been much more steady than in seasons past (just one Top-12 finish, but nothing worse than a 64th) and he's overdue to make some big noise.

4. Dave Lefebre – Another smallmouth ace whose season has been a roller-coaster ride. After bombs in three of the past four derbies, he's right on the Classic cutline and needs a decent showing to nail down a berth at Lake Conroe next spring.

5. Chris Lane – The Florida native and Alabama resident has spent his entire life as a resident of the South, but he has a decided knack for catching smallmouths (see Lake St. Clair, 2013). He's another guy who's riding the Classic bubble and can't afford to drop in the points standings.

6. Keith Combs – He's not known as a smallmouth guru, but he excels in big-weight events and this will unquestionably be one. His AOY hopes are slim at this point, but not entirely dashed.

7. Mike Iaconelli – Like Palaniuk, his season has been rock steady while lacking major highlights. His record on Northern fisheries is stellar and the decibel levels emanating from the excitable New Jerseyite's boat are sure to be high this week.

8. Aaron Martens – The three-time AOY has missed three money cuts this year, which is a high number for him, and he didn't make a single Top-12 in the wake of his two-win season in '15. Finding scattered groups of big fish has never been a problem for him, and neither has getting them to bite.

9. Brent Ehrler – His ability to locate offshore fish via his electronics is legendary, and that'll play big this week. He likely needs to move up a couple of places in the points to secure a Classic invitation, so that'll provide additional motivation.

10. Alton Jones – He's another guy from a largemouth-dominated state (Texas) who's well-versed in the ways of the smallmouth. He was 3rd at the Mississippi River and another single-digit placement certainly wouldn't be a surprise.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Takeoffs will occur daily at 6:40 a.m. CT out of Eddy’s Resort in Onamia, Minn. Weigh-ins will take place at Grand Casino Mille Lacs beginning at 3:45 p.m.

Notable

> Anglers will fish Thursday and Friday, then take Saturday off to conduct seminars and other fan-friendly activities. All 50 competitors will be back on the water for the finale on Sunday.

Weather Forecast

> Thurs., Sept. 15 – P.M. T-Storms – 71°/62°
- Wind: From the SSE at 10 mph

> Fri., Sept. 16 – A.M. T-Storms – 71°/55°
- Wind: From the SSW at 9 mph

> Sun., Sept. 18 – Sunny – 76°/58°
- Wind: From the S at 15 mph