By John Johnson
BassFan Senior Editor

Jay Brainard, a former Grand Lake guide and 2016 Bassmaster Elite Series rookie, believes that one environmental factor will override all others for this year's Classic: water clarity.

"There's just been so much rain this year," he said. "The lake level might be back to normal, now but the clarity isn't what it usually is at this time of year.

"Last time (the 2013 Classic that Cliff Pace won) it was a jerkbait-and-jig deal, but personally, I think it's going to be won incredibly shallow this time."

However, he knows – just like anybody who's done any significant amount of competitive fishing does – that there's no such thing as a "sure thing" in this sport. Therefore, he's compelled to keep a couple of other bases covered.

"Elk River, Drowning Creek and some of the other creeks and rivers coming in could have warmer, fresh water from over in Missouri, and that could be a big-time player. There's so many fish on the main lake that that's definitely where I'd start, but my plan B would be to look in those rivers and creeks for clear water.

"In a normal year I'd only go about halfway or two-thirds of the way back in them because I wouldn't expect (concentrations of fish) to be any farther back than that for another 2 weeks or so. But this year I'd go all the way back."

Four-Pronged Attack

If Brainard were competing in this Classic, he'd have four baits tied on for today's start of the official practice period.

The first is a shallow-running square-bill crankbait, such as a Strike King 1.5. He'd cast it right to the water's edge.

The second offering, a 3/8-ounce spinnerbait, he'd throw all the way onto dry land before beginning his retrieve.

"You can get some amazing bites on Grand doing that," he said. "It's usually a post-spawn thing, but it might work now with the clarity being what it is. They'll bite it as soon as the blades start turning in the water.

"They'll either be on it real hard, or they won't touch it."

His No. 3 bait would be a bladed jig.

"It's just a good dirty-water bait with a lot of vibration and it can (be productive) when the fish aren't feeding by sight. It's kind of a kicker-fish bait, but it can catch a lot of numbers, too.

"And then, I'll never fish any lake without a jig tied on. We could be talking any lake in the United States and that would be the case."

He said Grand, in some ways, will fish like a new lake to the competitors, who haven't seen it since it went off-limits at the start of the new year. Anytime it floods, as it did in December, a tremendous amount of new cover is washed in and some of what was there previously gets rearranged.

"These giant trees come down the lake and when they shut off the water, the logs and everything else goes into the coves and marinas. There won't be a lack of cover.

"Some places that guys found (in pre-practice) will be good and there'll be more stuff like that to explore because the fish definitely have more stuff to be around. Guys who got on to something, they'll have more of it."

Likes Watson's Chances

James Watson, the winner of last fall's Table Rock Lake Bassmaster Open and an angler with a great deal of experience on Grand, tops Brainard's list of favorites for the Classic.

"He's a close friend of mine and I just think it might be his time," he said. "He's put in a lot of hard work and he's coming in with as much momentum as anybody from Table Rock and Major League fishing.

"I think his mind is right and he's going to be out there for blood. He wants it bad."

Another guy he likes is Brandon Palaniuk.

"In 2013 he found (quality fish) on a flat at a time of year when I'd never even seen anybody fish that spot, and he was catching them the way I think they're going to be caught. He's not scared to go shallow, so I think he's a guy to watch out for."

His No. 3 pick is Edwin Evers, the veteran Oklahoman who's at or very near the top of anyone's list of best anglers who've yet to win a championship event or Angler of the Year title.

"I know it's basically his home lake and sometimes guys struggle with that, but Casey Ashley proved last year that it can be done. He has the knowledge to get it done and, like James, it might be his time to win."