Big O In Flux Due To Ultra-High Water

By John Johnson
BassFan Senior Editor

The conditions at Lake Okeechobee for the 2016 FLW Tour opener aren't quite as difficult as they were a few weeks ago for the Southeastern Costa Series event, which Tour pro Jason Lambert won with a paltry average of less than 15 pounds per day. In all likelihood, though, they're still tough enough to keep any of the 169 competitors from threatening the 100-pound threshold, which has been exceeded in this event in the past.

The famed Florida hawg factory experienced tumultuous weather throughout the month of January and its level is higher than most have ever seen it due to torrential rain in recent weeks. The expanded shoreline has created many more potential spawning sites for the bruisers already in that mode or on the verge of it, but some of those places are inaccessible due to the Big O's overabundance of thick vegetation.

A warming trend over the past several days has pushed the lake closer to its annual bust-loose point, when 5-pound-plus fish will be caught from all of their usual haunts and many out-of-the-way locales as well. It didn't reach that juncture during the 3-day practice period that concluded Tuesday, however, and the weather will take another negative turn beginning on day 2 (Friday), when a cold front moves in and brings a sturdy north wind with it.

Quite a few massive bags – maybe even a couple that top 25 pounds – are likely to cross the stage during Thursday's initial weigh-in. The lake could get a lot stingier after that, though, and the consensus is that the anglers with the most experience on it will have a big advantage.

Before delving deeper into the bite, here's some intel on the fishery itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake Name: Lake Okeechobee
> Type of Water: Shallow Florida natural lake
> Surface Acres: 448,000 (730 square miles)
> Primary structure/cover: Vegetation (many types)
> Average depth: 11 to 14 feet
> Species: Largemouths only
> Length limit: 12 inches
> Reputation: Prolific fishery with potential for explosive weights (30-plus pound bags), but can be stingy when conditions aren't quite right.
> Weather: Unsettled – a mix of clouds, sun and thunderstorms, and the dreaded north wind will kick in by day 2
> Water temp: Upper 60s to mid 70s
> Water visibility/color: Darker than usual due to recent storms
> Water level: About 2 feet high
> Fish in: All depths
> Fish phase: Pre-spawn/spawn
> Primary patterns: Sight-fishing, topwater, swimbaits, bladed jigs, rattlebaits, Senkos, flipping
> Winning weight: 84 pounds
> Cut weight (Top 20 after 2 days): 32 pounds
> Check weight (60th): 26 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 2 for Okeechobee
> Biggest factor: Weather – a strong north wind can really mess up some well-laid plans.
> Biggest decision: How much to run around. Some areas will be crowded, but that's always the case at Okeechobee.
> Wildcard: A newly-accessible backwater flat that harbors some fresh spawners.

Below is a bird's eye view of Okeechobee, courtesy of Navionics:

No Stopping the Flow

This time of year normally comprises the "dry season" in Florida and, under standard conditions, Okeechobee's level would be gradually dropping. That's not the case this year, though, as it continues to push toward historic levels in the wake of a phenomenally wet January.

"All the new water coming into the lake adds a dimension that's usually not a factor in February," said longtime Okeechobee maven Koby Kreiger, a former FLW Tour pro now competing on the Bassmaster Elite Series. "The guy who can adjust to the rising water, that's the guy who's going to find the Mother Lode.

"Usually, with the water dropping, the fish are coming to you, but now you have to go to the fish. This puts them way back into some cover that's going to be really thick. Instead of working the outside edges, now you're exploring back on the inside. If somebody wins it on the outside, I'll be shocked."

Sight-fishing will likely be difficult because many beds are deeper than usual and a good number are in places that a bass boat can't reach. Also, the water clarity is less than ideal for that tactic, as much of it is stained from all the wind.

Additionally, the major migration toward the banks for the annual reproduction ritual hasn't occurred yet.

"We haven't seen the big wave of fish come in," Kreiger said. "(The weather) just stayed hot for so long that the water didn't cool off, then when it finally cooled, it cooled way off.

"With it getting warm again, if we were on the right moon, we'd see a major move. The next wave that's coming will be the big one."

Mats won't Rule

Mat-punching, an Okeechobee staple, probably won't be the predominant technique this time because the wind has removed the majority of the mats from the open water. Flipping will certainly play, but the targets will be clumps of cattails and other isolated cover.

Some of the field will fixate on water that's either coming in or going out of the lake.

"There's going to be a lot of moving water going one way or the other or blowing through some openings," Kreiger said. "Some guys might do well with that throwing a swimbait, a Rat-L-Trap or a crankbait.

"I think it's going to come down to a guy having one or two or maybe three spots that the fish are coming into. Somebody who got one or two good bites in practice may go back out (on day 1) and find there's a lot more of them, and just whack them.

"Somewhere, there ought to be some big ones biting pretty well."

Notes From the Field

Following are practice notes from some of the angler's who'll be competing this week.

Andrew Upshaw
"The fishing overall has been pretty tough for me. I had 2 decent days, but not what I'd call a good day. The high water has changed the landscape and it's probably made some areas better, but overall it seems to be tougher than the normal Okeechobee.

"I've just started doing some of the things I'd do back home in Texas and it's paid off a little bit, and hopefully it'll continue to pay off. The way my practice went, I'd judge it kind of bad for Okeechobee, but it seems like when I have my worst practices is when I do my best in the tournaments and when I have a great practice I almost always do bad in the tournament. Before I've always had an amazing practice here and then never done well, so maybe that's a good sign.

"I think you'll see some good weights the first day, but then they'll level out the second day and they'll end up being not as high as normal."

Matt Arey
"I think the local guys are going to have a little more advantage than they usually do, especially if they spent time on the lake during the winter. With the high water, there's some areas that are accessible that aren't normally, and that's going to play right into those guys' hands.

"There's a lot more vegetation than when I was here last time, but the fish still seem to be in the same general areas.

"You can catch a bunch of fish, like always, but big bites have been hard to get for me. I've caught a couple 4- or 5-pounders, but they were totally random.

"I love sight-fishing, but I'm not going to be doing it this week unless I just randomly come across one. The areas where I've seen beds, I don't think that'd work if I trolled through them or let the wind take and I was just looking all the time. I feel better just fishing because of the high water."

Clark Wendlandt
"I think I've seen it this high one time before in all the years I've come here. The problem at Okeechobee is so much of the lake bottom is what I call mucky – just piled-up debris and nasty-looking stuff – and that type of bottom doesn't hold fish very well. The challenge is finding areas where the bottom is harder.

"I'd say my practice overall was decent, but here you know you're going to have periods that are good and periods when you're not catching anything. I think the field will spread out pretty well, but I don't think many people will have an area all to themselves. That just doesn't happen here because when a guy finds fish, there's usually a lot of fish and not just a couple, and more than one guy is going to find those big groups.

"A guy could sight-fish if he found the right area, but I didn't see many areas that had a good number of beds, and in any case it's hard to see them because with the high water, they're spawning deeper."

Peter Thliveros
"It's been pretty uneventful. The lake's taken a big hit from the bad storm that came through last week and it's really changed things from a water-level perspective, and also visually. A lot of the big mats that were out there are now lodge on the shore.

"The water clarity isn't good – even the main lake itself is still churned up and muddy. It's really condensed the fishable water and that's going to make it tough on everybody.

"The fish are biting when you find them, but it's a matter of finding them. I can catch a limit, but it might weigh 8 or 9 pounds or it might weigh 12 or 13. The water has been warming steadily and things are pointing in the right direction, but it's not there yet.

"It'll be good for a handful of people, but as far as needing 20 pounds to make the Top 50, that's not going to happen."

Mark Daniels Jr.
"It's been super-goofy for here, to be honest. I've gotten a couple good bites, but with the water up 2 feet it's really hard to dial in on anything.

"The normal areas have a lot of boats in them and other areas you might not even see a boat. The fish really want to come in and spawn, but with the water up it puts them so far back that you really can't get to them. Sight-fishing will probably be a tough deal, but with that said, I guarantee you there will be guys catching them spawning.

"I've gotten some really good flipping bites, but not the kind of numbers that would make me pick up the flipping stick and just go all day long. I'll have to mix in some topwater and some other soft plastics and kind of grind it out."

Bill McDonald
"It's been extremely tough – tougher than any time I've ever been here. The water's high and the fish are scattered. This isn't a regular reservoir where the fish deal with a lot of fluctuations in the water. A lot of the water's dirty and it's hard to get a bite.

"I can catch small fish, but the good ones are hard to come by. It's Okeechobee and you need to get that one big bite a day, at least. I think the weights might be off and it might only take 10 to 12 pounds a day to get a check.

"I spent a week here in early January and the fishing was pretty good, but since then they're had a lot of cold and wind and that's ripped apart a lot of the mats. You've got to adapt, and the way I look at it, I've got at least 2 more days to do it."

Top 10 to Watch

With the above in mind and more, here, in no particular order, are BassFan's recommendations for the Top 10 to watch in this event.

1. Brandon McMillan – The Belle Glade, Fla. native, who grew up fishing the Big O with his late father, Jimmy, will be competing in a tour-level event for the first time since 2013. He won this tournament on the same calendar week in 2011 by amassing more than 106 pounds. He turned down an opportunity to fish the Bassmaster Elite Series this year in favor of the Tour and continuing with his UPS job, and this derby on his home waters was one of the primary reasons for that decision.

2. Scott Martin – The reigning Angler of the Year is another guy with a lot of family history at Okeechobee (you may have heard of his dad, Roland). Intimate knowledge of what the fish do at the lake under high-water conditions will be critical this week, and Martin certainly possesses that.

3. Wesley Strader – The winner of last week's Kissimmee Chain Bassmaster Southern Open comes in hot, and over the last couple of years he's shown a level of consistency nearly equal to his east Tennessee neighbor, Andy Morgan. His Okeechobee record is a mixed bag, but he's simply a lot better now than he was when he logged those triple-digit bombs.

4. John Cox – His runner-up finish to Martin in the AOY race was one of the best stories of 2015, and now he's in a setting with which he's intimately familiar. He always makes it seem as if quality bags just come out of the blue for him, but nobody could possibly "get lucky" as often as he did last year. His shallow-water game ranks with the best on the circuit.

5. Andy Morgan – The guy with 10 straight Top-10 finishes in the points race makes this list for every Tour event, regardless of location, and this is a venue where he's enjoyed a lot of success. Quality fish, whether they're grouped up or scattered, just can't seem to elude him. He'll almost certainly find enough of them this week to cash yet another big check.

6. Larry Nixon – The 65-year-old legend is coming off an excellent season (he was 10th in last year's AOY race) and had a strong finish (10th) last time he competed at the Big O. Having visited the venue numerous times over several decades, he's seen just about everything it can throw at an angler and he should be able to adapt accordingly.

7. Glenn Browne – The Floridian took a hiatus from tour-level competition last year, but has had great success recently at the triple-A level, winning a Costa Series derby at Lake Champlain last fall and finishing 2nd at Okeechobee last month. He's not a true local at the venue, but it rarely fools him and his Costa showing makes him more dangerous this time.

8. J.T. Kenney – The winner of last year's Tour opener at Lake Toho prevailed in the Tour opener at Okeechobee way back in 2002, when he was still a resident of Maryland. He's lived in Florida for many years now and is adept at flipping up big Sunshine State largemouths under any conditions.

9. Jason Lambert – The winner of last month's Costa Series event at Okeechobee said he found some even bigger fish at the south end of the lake while practicing for that event, but couldn't capitalize on them due to the stiff north wind that plagued the tournament. Maybe they're still there, or perhaps he's located some others.

10. Stetson Blaylock – His finishes at the Big O have gotten progressively better over the course of his still-young career, and they were never bad to begin with. The Arkansan, who's quietly become one of the most consistent performers on the circuit, ended up 8th in the 2014 Okeechobee stop and it'd be no surprise to see him among the Top 10 again.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Anglers will take off from Roland & Mary Ann Martin’s Marina & Resort (920 E. Del Monte Ave., Clewiston, Fla.) at 7:30 a.m. ET each day. Thursday's and Friday’s weigh-ins will be held at the marina beginning at 3 p.m. Saturday's and Sunday’s final weigh-ins will be held at Walmart (1005 W. Sugarland Highway, Clewiston) beginning at 4 p.m.

Notable

> Jay Yelas caught a few 5-plus-pounders during practice, including three on the same day. But like most others in the field, he said those bites are tough to get on a consistent basis due to the conditions. To read his practice summary, click here to go to Pro View Reports.

Weather Forecast

> Thurs., Feb. 4 – Cloudy - 81°/57°
- Wind: From the SSE at 12 mph

> Fri., Feb. 5 – Partly Cloudy - 66°/58°
- Wind: From the NNE at 17 mph

> Sat., Feb. 6 – Thunderstorms - 71°/54°
- Wind: From the NE at 9 mph

> Sun., Feb. 7 – Mostly Sunny - 63°/45°
- Wind: From the NW at 19 mph