By John Johnson
BassFan Senior Editor


The numbers racked up by competitors in last year's Toyota Texas Bass Classic at Lake Fork were nothing short of ridiculous. They're likely to be pretty silly again this year, but perhaps not quite as eye-popping.

Lots of fish weighing 7 pounds and up still swim in the famed east Texas impoundment, but the present conditions will almost certainly make them more difficult to catch when the 35-angler all-star event gets under way Saturday. The extremely high water moving through the lake is the main negating factor, and the gloomy, cool and sometimes wet weather won't help matters, either.

"It's very unlikely that's going to happen again this year," said Fork guide James Caldemeyer, referring to the 110-pound total that Keith Combs amassed over 3 days en route to winning last year's derby (his second straight TTBC victory and third overall). "I don't see anybody going over the 100-pound mark."

Combs, who's established himself as the dominant competitor in his home state (he also has a Bassmaster Elite Series win at Falcon Lake on his ledger), cranked up deep post-spawn fish to the tune of nearly 37 pounds a day in 2014. Runner-up Stetson Blaylock also logged a triple-digit total and a handful of other anglers threatened that threshold.

An average of 28 pounds a day, which didn't even get an angler into the Top 10 last year, will likely contend for the victory this time.

"I think it'll still take over 80 pounds, for sure," said Elite Series pro and Fork guide James Niggemeyer. "You'll see guys catch two 30-pound bags, or one 30 and two 25s, but the big bags won't be as common as they were last year.

"One thing about the lake is it gets really fickle, and it blew me away last year how guys caught them day after day after day. The bite changes from day to day, but they just kept catching them."

Current's No Good

A tremendous amount of water is presently coming into one end of Lake Fork and going out the other due to all the recent rain in the region. Even more precipitation is in the forecast for this weekend.

In contrast to what occurs at many reservoirs, the bass at Lake Fork aren't prone to chomp during periods of heavy current. In fact, just the opposite is true.



James Caldemeyer
Photo: James Caldemeyer

Lake Fork guide James Caldemeyer says that Lake Fork bass don't like current, which they're experiencing a lot of at the moment.

"These are Florida-strain fish and they don't like current," Caldemeyer said. "The flood gates being open hurts the bite.

"I don't know if they're going to be closed by the weekend or not – I'm assuming that the Sabine River Authority, which controls the flows, is trying to let as much out as they can over the next 24 hours or so. I'm sure they'd like to close them because they know the impact that would have on the fishing."

Also, the increased water level has put a lot of cover in play that was high and dry last year, and that's kept a lot of post-spawn fish from hurrying to the dropoffs.

"Two weeks before I left for the (Elite Series) Western swing last month, the water was down 3 feet," Niggemeyer said. "Now there's more willow trees and terrestrial grass covered than I've ever seen, and the fish get dispersed in that cover."

There are nonetheless plenty of quality fish on the ledges, but not in the numbers found at this time a year ago. And the ones that are out there might play hard to get under the gray skies.

"When it isn't sunny, these fish suspend quite a bit and they don't set up perfectly where you can make that precise presentation over and over," Niggemeyer added. "You can catch some on a big spoon or a swimbait, but it's not the same.

"Historically, the lake fishes better in bright, sunny conditions."

Depths Still Best Bet

Even with multiple elements suggesting the offshore action won't be as good this year, the guides agree that the winning fish will almost certainly come from the ledges.

"The biggest weights are out deep – that's still how it'll be won," said FLW Tour pro Tom Redington, the winner of the recent Kentucky Lake Central Rayovac and yet another of the many guides operating at Fork. "The shallow cover probably won't hold up for multiple days, so I don't know if the bank-beaters can hang in there."

Said Niggemeyer: "A guy can be real dangerous up shallow right now, but I just don't think he's going to be able to beat all the guys out deep."

Notable

> Daily weigh-ins and the accompanying country music concerts will take place on the grounds of the Sabine River Authority in Quitman, Texas. Weigh-ins, which will be live-streamed at www.ToyotaTexasBassClassic.com, will get under way at 5 p.m. CT on Saturday and Sunday and 3 p.m. on Monday.

> For a complete list of the competitors and how they qualified, click here.