BassFans by now have had time to digest all the info contained in the Alan Report, published earlier today. In that piece, Keith Alan laid out several of the factors in play at this week's Harris Chain Elite Series, including weather (wind and clouds tomorrow followed by post-frontal conditions), substantial
idle times between the lakes, and the likelihood of bedding fish.
As an update, the field today reported quite a few more bed-fish in the canals than perhaps expected – including several 10-plus-pounders – which should certainly skew tomorrow's weights. But then again, strong winds blew through the Harris Chain tonight with gusts recorded at 45 mph. A continuing, persistent wind tomorrow plus clouds will certainly hurt the sight-fishing, but perhaps more important, storm activity tonight could totally trash the clear-water canals by morning.
Assuming that bed-fishing is a viable pattern tomorrow, a pro with a good boat draw might be able to immediately head to a canal and whack about 20 pounds. Those in later flights will then either have to muscle their way in – a setup we saw in 2005 when George Cochran and Jim Bitter had their exchange in the "crowded canal" episode – or simply hunt post-spawn fish, which seem to be topping out at about 2 1/2 pounds.
Remember too: David Dudley fished that 2005 contest, and messed with everyone's heads by bragging at the meeting that he purposely went out and stuck a bunch of bed-fish the final day of practice. He called it "defensive fishing," because he had a late flight, and never fully disclosed whether he'd actually done it. But he did get into the heads of his competition.
There's no doubt that the canals will be packed tomorrow, at least to start. The good canals off Harris and Eustis will be particularly crowded, with perhaps one boat per fish.
The reality, however, is that a tour-level B.A.S.S. event at the Harris Chain has never been won on a bed-fishing pattern. Bed-fish certainly help, but by day 2, most of the field will be scrambling for a 10-pound limit. So while the majority of pros will probably start on bed-fish tomorrow, at least a third of the field will move straight to their post-spawn patterns, and in the scheme of things, a 13-pound post-spawn limit might be stronger than a 20-pound bed-fish limit tomorrow.
And again, given tonight's winds, all the bed-fishing talk might be for nothing.
To help better frame the setup, here's some info on the fishery itself.
BassFan Lake Profile
> Lake Name: Harris Chain (8 lakes)
> Type of Water: Relatively shallow chain (5-7 feet, some holes that are much deeper)
> Surface Acres: Unavailable.
> Primary structure/cover: Lily pads, eelgrass, Kissimmee grass, stumps, docks, dropoffs
> Average depth: 6 feet
> Species: Largemouths only
> Length limit: 12 inches
> Reputation: A decent fishery, but it gets a lot of pressure and is very sensitive to cold fronts
> Weather: Heavy winds tonight ahead of a cold front that'll continue to move through on day 1, followed by high pressure and cooler temps
> Water temp: 65 to 70 degrees
> Water visibility/color: Varies throughout the chain, but most of the water's murky (dark green tint) with visibility of no more than a foot. Canals are clearer and some canals are quite clear.
> Water level: Normal
> Fish in: All depths
> Fish phase: Mostly post-spawn, but significant amount on beds
> Primary patterns: Sight-fishing (day 1 and maybe day 2), flipping, worms, Carolina-rigs, topwater
> Winning weight: 57 pounds
> Cut weight (Top 12): 40 pounds
> Check weight: 8 to 10 pounds a day
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 2 for Harris
> Biggest factors: The winds and cold front, crowded fishing
> Wildcard: An overlooked bedding area with 2 days worth of fish. Also the potential for a post-spawn bite in an out-of-the-way lake
McClelland Won't Look
Mike McClelland won here in 2008. That's when Brian Snowden crumbled on the final day and surrendered a 10-pound lead.
But McClelland said he's not catching fish where he did 3 years ago – the lakes are further into the post-spawn this time around. He spent his first day of practice (Monday) running tons of water and mixing up baits – mostly plastics in Kissimmee grass and pads, plus a War Eagle spinnerbait, Horny Toad and buzzbait in an effort to judge how aggressive the fish were.
As practice wore on, he decided to forego the temptation of bed-fishing and focus exclusively on post-spawners. He figures to play the average and eventually overcome some big bed bags with decent post-spawn limits.
A few insights from McClelland:
Alton Jones thinks he found enough fish to last 3 days – the most difficult decision is where to fish the morning of day 1.
Jones Met His Goal
Alton Jones scored a pre-spawn Top 10 here in 2004, and cashed a check in 2008. His goal in practice this week was the same as always: Find enough fish each practice day to last 1 day of the tournament.
"If you can do that, that gets you through 3 tournament days," he said. "I feel I accomplished that (Monday) – I found an area that was good for 1 day. And I did that the next 2 days. So I feel I have enough fish for 3 days. But the problem here is it's going to fish real small. That makes the day-1 starting spot crucial. You really have to pick spots that you think will last the longest, because if you save it for day 2, someone might come and milk it dry on day 1.
"I haven't found a lot (where I can be) by myself," he added. "What I have is pretty mainstream. But there are some good fish to be caught, so I think all in all it'll be a good tournament. But there'll be the haves and have-nots. I don't expect a lot of middle ground – especially tomorrow. A guy's ether going to have 20 pounds or 8 pounds."
Lane Predicts Post-Spawn Victory
Florida phenom Bobby Lane placed 3rd here in 2008 (his brother Chris finished 4th). He's a terror anytime the tour visits Florida, and fully believes that post-spawn fish will carry this week.
A few insights from Lane:
Top 10 To Watch
Here, in no particular order, is BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch at this event.
1. Kevin VanDam – The man makes the list as always. Won memorably in Florida on offshore post-spawn stuff while everyone else worked the shallows. A tough bite certainly helps him and look for him to work reaction baits to provoke post-frontal strikes.
2. Peter Thliveros – Comes off a strong finish in the Okeechobee FLW Tour Open that might have been better if not for some mechanical issues the final day. Made a career of Carolina-rigging, won here in 2005 and should be able to function well within the post-frontal conditions.
3. Skeet Reese – This was the site of his first tour-level win and he's posted a remarkable set of finishes across four events here – 1st, 24th, 8th and 17th.
4. Andy Montgomery – A dark-horse pick, but this fifth-year pro cut his teeth on the pressured lakes of South Carolina and this week marks his Elite Series debut. Plus, anyone who comes over from the FLW Tour is naturally accustomed to crowds.
Fresh off a strong showing at Okeechobee, Peter Thliveros could be returning to form.
5. Bobby Lane – When in Florida, choose a Lane. Bobby to this point has achieved more than brother Chris, and is a threat to win anytime the tour visits Florida.
6. Chris Lane – Now lives in Alabama, but just like brother Bobby, is Florida born and raised and excels everywhere in the state.
7. Terry Scroggins – Scroggins makes a lot of watch lists because he's a stud, but he's especially good at Okeechobee. He gets a home-water event next week at the St. Johns, but this one's pretty darn close.
8. Aaron Martens – There are two theories on post-frontal fishing. One is to go bigger and more erratic to irk bass into biting. The other is to downsize and slow down to coax bass into biting. Martens typically chooses the latter, and he's incredible with a spinning rod.
9. Dean Rojas – Makes the list because he's one of the guys who could whack a few good sight-fish, then work the post-spawn for better-than-average quality. Then again, he may have a bad boat draw. We don't know. BassFan requested a flight order from B.A.S.S., but none was available.
10. Kelly Jordon – Another guy who could likely get off to a fast start, then work the post-spawn. Not afraid to fish in a crowd and when sight-fishing's in play, Jordon's usually near the top.
Launch/Weigh-In Info
The March 10-13 weigh-ins and launches are open to the public with no admission charge. The weigh-in site is Wooten Park, 150 E. Ruby St., Tavares, Fla. The launch site is the Tavares Seaplane Base & Marina at the same address, which is on Lake Dora.
Takeoff time is 7:30 a.m. EST. Weigh-ins will begin each day at 4 p.m. EST.
Weather Forecast
> Thurs., March 10 - A.M. T-Storms - 70°/44°
- Wind: From the W/SW at 19 mph
> Fri., March 11 - Sunny - 67°/43°
- Wind: From the W/NW at 14 mph
> Sat., March 12 - Sunny - 73°/45°
- Wind: From the NW at 6 mph
> Sun., March 13 - Sunny - 78°/49°
- Wind: From the N/NW at 5 mph
Notable
> BassFan Big Stick Brent Chapman checked in with BassFan on Monday night for some advanced reporting on conditions. He checked in again tonight for a practice wrap-up. The bottom line: He plans to start on bed-fish because it's the only way he sees to catch quality. For his full practice report, click here to go On Tour With the BassFan Big Sticks.
