Frigid, Clear Water Presents Complications

The recent Bassmaster Classic at Lay Lake in Alabama presented a difficult puzzle to its field. The problem? Record-low water temps, muddy water and a massive shad die-off.

One week later and 12 hours to the northwest, the scene is somewhat different, but in many respects the same. Missouri has likewise suffered from one of the coldest winters in recent memory,

and participants in this week's Table Rock FLW Tour practiced under conditions that delivered mornings as cold as 20 degrees, skim ice in many places, water temperatures in the high-30s to low-40s, a shad die-off, plus cold and wet winds.

What sets the Table Rock conditions apart from the Classic is water clarity. It's one of the clearest lakes in the country, and right now is about as clear as it could possibly be. There's little to no color in the major creek arms, and that's problematic because the largemouth bite usually doesn't get going without some color.

Fish can be caught, but the struggle is size – especially since the minimum for each of the three bass species is 15 inches.

In a nutshell, the easy bite's gone, but some pros will figure it out, and with 3 full-field days to make the final Top 5 cut, the event should provide a solid showcase of how many of the world's top pros attack a difficult situation.

Before more on how the tournament sets up, here's some info on the waterbody itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake name: Table Rock
> Type of water: Highland reservoir on the White River
> Surface acres: 43,100 at full pool
> Primary structure/cover: Chunk rock, bluff banks, standing timber, boat docks
> Primary forage: Crawfish and threadfin shad
> Average depth: Roughly 70 feet
> Species: Largemouths, spotted bass, smallmouths
> Minimum length: 15 inches (on all three)
> Reputation: Great lake with big fish of all species, but they're greatly affected by weather
> Weather: Very cold with daytime highs near 50 and overnight lows below freezing. Warmer daytime air and clear skies expected for the tournament, although overnight lows still at or below freezing
> Water temp: High-30s to low-40s, some upper-40s
> Water visibility/color: Gin-clear (5 to 10 feet)
> Water level: Full pool
> Fish in: All depths
> Fish phase: Winter
> Primary patterns: Jerkbaits, crankbaits, dropshots, tubes, jigs, Carolina-rigs, spoons, worms
> Winning weight: 64 pounds
> Cut weight (Top 5 after 3 days): 48 pounds
> Check weight (Top 50 after 3 days): 36 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 2 for Table Rock
> Biggest factors: Weather – will afternoon sun help ignite a bite?
> Biggest decision: Deep or shallow? There are more bites out deep, but generally better size up shallow
> Wildcard: Big, deep fish

Mind, Body Chill

It's a simple fact that some pros will be out of the game before they ever launch a boat. The extreme cold is just too much for some to take. Not only does it tax them mentally, but physically as well. It takes a certain breed of pro to travel 70 mph down a lake in 20-degree air temps, stand on the deck all day with bare hands and not get weak or shaky.

How has the cold affected some pros? Cliff Pirch from Payson, Ariz. is a good example of the negative effect.

"We don't get 40-degree water where I live and it's just not one of my strengths," Pirch said. "Whether it's that I have thin skin, or just not much experience with it, I don't know, but I bought a little propane heater. Every hour or so I have to sit down by it and warm up. And (Sunday), I had to fish with my reel about 8 inches over the top of the heater just so it would work. And for the first few hours I couldn't keep the ice out of my guides."

To the opposite end of the spectrum is Pennsylvania's Dave Lefebre, who actually holds the National Fresh Water Fishing Hall of Fame world ice-fishing record for crappie (3-08).

"This is my favorite water temperature in the world to fish," Lefebre said. "Where I live, you're champing at the bit all winter to go fishing, and you can't wait to get out there. This is when the adrenaline's the highest for me – when you're so excited to fish you can't stand it. I'm not sure what the coldest water is that I've fished, but I can tell you that we break ice every year to get to places where we want to fish for bass."

Deep or Shallow?

Jay Yelas checked in with BassFans earlier today and noted that he'll be fishing shallow. Even though the shallow water's too clear for his liking, he never got on anything solid out deep.

Table Rock ace Stacey King noted about the choice: "There's going to be varied patterns. Some fish will be caught deep, some shallow. They're wanting to come up, but they just can't get active because it's not warming and the fish can get full so easy from the shad die-off. There's a full moon and they're eating at night. They don't really have to do a lot of moving and they're not feeding aggressively.

"So I think there will be several different patterns working, but it'll be hit and miss," King added. "I think it's going to take a lot less weight than normal, but I'd be afraid to guess at what it might take."

Andy Morgan said of his coming decision: "I've had some bites out really deep, and I've caught some fish fairly shallow for what the water temp is. The trouble is, when I do catch one, it's little. I'm struggling to catch keepers anywhere, which is different from my past experience in cold water. Usually when you catch one in these conditions, it's good, but not this time. I really don't know what the answer is."

The Cut

This will be the first FLW Tour event under the new format, whereby the full field fishes for 3 days, then the Top 5 advance to fish day 4. The winner is decided by 4-day cumulative weight.

That's a huge departure from the Tour's traditional setup, where the field cut to the Top 10 after 2 days, and those 10 started with zero weight.

The new format certainly decreases the impact of a big bite. That's not to say that a big bite won't carry an angler far – it can and will in these conditions. But an angler has to back it up over the 3 days, whereas many pros used to make the Top 10 cut based on a single big bite.

And remember that this is Table Rock. It's packed full of quality fish, which means some good bags will certainly make it to the scales. As much as the pros are moaning about the tough conditions, some will inevitably figure it out.

Ish Monroe, who's back fishing the FLW Tour alongside the Bassmaster Elite Series, agrees.

"You might hear a lot of whining and crying, but you know as well as I that they're going to catch them," Monroe said. "I had one okay day of practice, a good second day, and a bad third day. But I know someone who had a good third day and a bad first 2 days. So they're going to catch them – they always do at this lake. But I don't see six bags over 20 pounds like day 1 last year."

Top 10 To Watch

With the above in mind and more, here's BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch at this event. In no particular order they are:

1. Guido Hibdon – The Hibdon family haunts the Ozarks, and father Guido has had some memorable cold-water finishes in the region.

2. Dave Lefebre – As he said above, he loves this water temperature. And you can bet he's got more than a few things working in varied water depths in case the 3 days of sun mixes things up.

3. Scott Suggs – The runner-up here last year and an Ozarks master (won the Forrest Wood Cup at Ouachita). Suggs has fished through plenty of adverse conditions and should do quite well here.

4. Mark Rose – A gut feeling puts Rose on the list. He's flying high after winning the Stren Championship last year to ease his financial burden.

5. Luke Clausen – Clear water, tough bite, that's Clausen all the way. Finished first out of the cut here last year.

6. Kevin Vida – Makes the watch list for the same reason as Lefebre – a northern stick who likely has an advantage in the cold.

7. George Cochran – Hasn't impressed of late – seems more to be going through the motions – but Cochran should be able to work the shallow bite better than most. And has history on the lake – finished 4th here the same week in 2004 on the Bassmaster Tour and generally fishes well in the Ozarks.

8. Brent Ehrler – The cold may make him more of a wildcard, but Ehrler has shown the past several years that it never pays to bet against him. And he's got some momentum after his Shasta win to kick off the year.

9. Ray Scheide – Gets his mail in Arkansas now, but was born and bred in the bitter cold of Wisconsin. Could have a great week.

10. Shinichi Fukae – Made the Top 10 last year but was then DQd over the final 2 days. He's looking for redemption, and difficult, clear-water conditions absolutely play to his strengths.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Anglers launch daily at Table Rock State Park. Weigh-ins the first 3 days begin at 3:00 p.m. at the same location. The final-day weigh-in begins at 4:00 p.m. at the Branson Convention Center.

Weather Forecast

Here's the weather forecast for the tournament days. Note the sun as well as the overnight lows.

> Wed., March 3 - Sunny - 48°/24°
- Wind: From the N/NW at 10 mph

> Thurs., March 4 - Sunny -53°/29°
- Wind: From the NE at 5 mph

> Fri., March 5 - Sunny - 48°/24°
- Wind: From the N/NW at 10 mph

> Sat., March 6 - Sunny - 48°/24°
- Wind: From the N/NW at 10 mph

Notable

> Although this was slated to be the second event of the 2010 FLW Tour season, it's actually the first. The Red River opener was cancelled last month.

> Lefebre, who lost his long-running Kellogg's deal during the off-season when the company didn't renew with FLW Outdoors, now fishes for team Chevy.

> Fellow Chevy pro Anthony Gagliardi won last year's Table Rock event.

Field List

Since this event functions as the 2010 FLW Tour kickoff, below is the anticipated field list to start the year.

Nicholas Albus
Eric Ambort
Matt Arey
Stuart Arthur
Todd Auten
Terry Baksay
Chris Baumgardner
Michael Bennett
Cody Bird
Daryl Biron
Bob Bjorklund
Stetson Blaylock
Greg Bohannan
Terry Bolton
Chad Brauer
Gerald Brown
Glenn Browne
Clint Brownlee
Scott Canterbury
Glenn Chappelear
Tony Chesshir
James Christian
Jason Christie
Luke Clausen
George Cochran
Ramie Colson, Jr.
Keith Combs
Jason Cordiale
Brandon Coulter
Bobby Curtis
Ott Defoe
Lewis Denney
John Devere
Jim Dillard
Robbie Dodson
Craig Dowling
David Dudley
Kathryn Ealey
Brent Ehrler
Edwin Evers
Jamie Feick
Art Ferguson III
Mark Fisher
Christopher Ford
Rhett Fornof
Travis Fox
David Fritts
Shinichi Fukae
Anthony Gagliardi
Pete Gluszek
Chad Grigsby
Mark Hardin
James "Wil" Hardy
Robert Harkness
Chip Harrison
Roy Hawk
Mike Hawkes
Dion Hibdon
Guido Hibdon
Brett Hite
Sean Hoernke
Jimmy Houston
Will Jefferies
Tim Johnson
Steve Kennedy
JT Kenney
Justin Kerr
Rob Kilby
Stacey King
Tim Klinger
Brad Knight
David Kromm
Thanh Le
Dave Lefebre
Brent Long
Richard Lowitzki
Justin Lucas
Kyle Mabrey
Tom Mann, Jr.
Fred Martin
Scott Martin
Chris Martinkovic
Tim McDonald
Bobby McMullin
Jason Meninger
Cody Meyer
Jimmy Millsaps
Jim Milson
Ishama Monroe
Keith Monson
Andy Montgomery
Dan Morehead
Andy Morgan
Chad Morgenthaler
Jim Moynagh
Michael Murphy
Chris Neau
Jonathan Newton
Larry Nixon
Eric Olliverson
JT Palmore
Russell Parrish
Robert Pearson
Clifford Pirch
Jacob Powroznik
Bud Pruitt
Greg Pugh
Tom Redington
Jason Reyes
Darrel Robertson
Christian Romans
Mark Rose
Mark Rouse
Rusty Salewske
Ray Scheide
Shad Schenck
Terry Segraves
Dick Shaffer
Robert Sherry
Ron Shuffield
David Smith
Mark Stewart
Wesley Strader
James Stricklin, Jr.
Scott Suggs
Mike Surman
John Tanner
Randall Tharp
Joe Thomas
Zack Thompson
Bryan Thrift
Mike Todd
Rusty Trancygier
Brian Travis
Jim Tutt
Vic Vatalaro
John Voyles
Jack Wade
Adam Wagner
David Walker
James Watson
Nate Wellman
Clark Wendlandt
Ken Wick
Kenneth (Boo) Woods
Mike Wurm
Gary Yamamoto
Jay Yelas
Jeremy York