Cold, Muddy Water Leads To Lots Of Head-Scratching

(Editors' note: Additional practice reports were recently added to this story, starting with Shaw Grigsby.)

The last time Alabama's Lay Lake hosted a Bassmaster Classic, the water was cold. But it wasn't as cold as it is now. And it wasn't as muddy.

Boyd Duckett won that 2007 Classic with mixed bags and big help from two substantial largemouths.

His final weight was just shy of 49 pounds – an average of about 16 1/2 pounds a day.

This year, most in the field think it'll take 38 to 40 pounds to win, or a 12 1/2- to 13 1/2-pound average. That's how tough the fishing is.

The mud has pretty much taken away the deep bite. And the frigid temperatures have wreaked havoc on the shallow bite. Surface temperatures on the lake ranged from 43 to 48 during today's final practice day, and this past weekend, several pockets had ice on them.

So for the most part, the field has resigned itself to searching the very backs of creeks where there's clear water and slightly warmer water temperatures. A limit's by no means guaranteed. In fact, it's the goal. And a limit of 2-pound fish could carry an angler a long way in this tough-bite Classic.

There does remain some hope. Tomorrow and Friday should be sunny and warmer, with daytime highs around 50. Rain is predicted for Saturday, then mostly cloudy skies with a high near 60 expected for Sunday. The hope is the warming trend will activate the largemouths. But others are more skeptical, and feel that the overnight lows near freezing will negate any warming effects during the day.

No one knows what will actually occur beneath the waters of Lay until Friday's competition commences. But there are several clues as to how things might go down, and they're delivered below in BassFan's annual Classic Scouting Report.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake name: Lay
> Type of water: Lowland reservoir
> Surface acres: 12,000
> Primary structure/cover: Rocks, rocky points, brush, docks, shoreline grass, laydowns, eddies, bars
> Primary forage: Threadfin and gizzard shad, plus crayfish, sunfish and crappies
> Average depth: 22 feet
> Species: Largemouths and spotted bass
> Minimum length: 12 inches for both
> Reputation: A premier and very consistent spotted-bass fishery (a "football factory"), with an excellent population of 2- to 5-pound largemouths with some Florida genetics
> Weather: Unseasonably cold with recent sleet and snow, but warmer temps and clearer skies on the way
> Water temp: Low- to high-40s
> Water visibility/color: Heavily stained with a foot of visibility in the main river, some clearer water in the backs of pockets with several feet of visibility
> Water level: Full pool (normal)
> Fish in: All depths
> Fish phase: Winter
> Primary patterns: Jigs, finesse plastics, crankbaits, jerkbaits, spinnerbaits
> Winning weight: 43 pounds
> Cut weight (Top 25 after 2 days): 20 pounds
> Check weight: N/A (everyone is paid)
> Fishing quality: 1 for Lay, but could easily improve with warmer water
> Biggest factor: Water temperature and color – warmer and clearer equals better
> Biggest decision: Whether to fish the river or nearer the dam, and whether to fish fast or slow
> Wildcard: Deep fish – has somebody figured out how to fish the muddy main river and trigger bites from fish stuffed with dying shad?

Factor: Water Temperature

As noted, water is ranging in the low- to high-40s. That's extremely cold for Lay Lake, and many locals note it's the coldest they've ever seen the water.

Some of the warmest water in the lake is in Paint Creek – the last major arm before the dam. The very back of Paint Creek is a large, shallow spawning flat. The fish don't seem to be there yet, and they aren't even staging on a few of the entry points to that flat, which means Lay is still in a deep winter pattern.

The water in the river is quite cold – in the low-40s – and it's running fast. The general consensus is the river fish are inactive and very difficult to catch.

There is the warmwater discharge in the river, just north of Beeswax Creek (where the official launch is located). Federation Nation qualifier Terry McWilliams camped on that spot in 2007 and was a threat to win. Count on a lot of boats working that warmer water around the coal plant, but boat draw could be a big deal. It's a very small area and even three boats there could lead to some fireworks.

The question remains: Will the water warm, and if so, when and by how much?

Factor: Water Color

More than the water temperature, the water color is what has the field so frustrated, because it seems to have taken the deep-water fish out of play. There are some pros with deep-water rigs on their decks, and Kota Kiriyama was fishing deep with electronics today, although it was in a creek and not on the main river.

Aaron Martens had a dropshot rigged up, of course. There's a ton of bait underneath the bridges, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Martens whack a sack of spots, but the simple truth is, most anglers in this Classic don't have a lot of confidence out deep to begin with. Put any stain in the water and they all make a beeline to the nearest bank.

Don't count the deep water out just yet – especially nearer the dam, where it's not quite as stained – but the number of pros who could fish out there with any acuity is a very small number indeed.

Factor: Location

This probably isn't going to be a run-and-gun Classic. There's a general consensus in the field that it'll be won on a spot, or maybe two spots. There are groups of fish, but it seems that so few fish are active, it might take all day to catch a limit from a single school.

That doesn't necessarily mean one needs to fish slowly. Rather, one has to thoroughly fish an area with a technique, and that takes a long time in cold, stained water.

The thinking right now is something like this: Why leave a group of fish to go find another group of fish that's just as hard, or harder to catch? It's probably better to continue working through an area, back and forth, to provoke bites.

And at this point, it doesn't seem an angler would be able to depart from his or her practice to find something new, or expand a pattern. It could be a possibility for those with a heavy knowledge of the lake – pros like Boyd Duckett, Matt Herren, Russ Lane, Kevin VanDam, Tommy Biffle – but it would be a heavy gamble.

Factor: Up or Down?

There are some pros who plan to start at mid-lake on Friday, but most will make the decision of whether to fish upriver or down by the dam.

As noted, the clearest, warmest water in general is near the dam. There's mud flowing down the Coosa chain, clouding the river, but it's settling out day by day downlake.

The river's probably going to be crowded. In 2007 it fished small, and there weren't many pros up there. Biffle and Skeet Reese had words in the river, and Gerald Swindle was DQd up there for running on plane between a camera boat and spectator boats.

If there's any weight coming out of the river this year, there'll be even more spectator boats – especially on Sunday – and it'll be tough as nails to fish comfortably up there.

Factor: Dying Shad

There's a shad die-off every winter at Lay, but this one seems to be more significant. It's created a glut of easy food – as one pro said, a bass just needs to open its mouth and it's full.

So it's no surprise that "hunger" presentations aren't the go-to right now. Jigs are expected to dominate, since they represent the crawfish that thrive on Lay's rocky bottom. But reaction techniques should get heavy play too. A bass might not be hungry, but will still strike a bait out of instinct and anger.

Field Notes

BassFan spoke with several pros as they came off the water today at the end of official practice. Their reports are summarized below. (The field rests tomorrow, then begins competition on Friday.)

Greg Hackney
"I didn't check anything today that I fished the other 3 days (of practice). I ran new water and did some different things. I might have come up with a little different wrinkle, but I'm still basically going on those first 3 days. There hasn't been any big change, and I don't see any big change coming. You'd need five 50-degree days to start to affect things. This afternoon, the surface temp came up a little, but it's only heating down to 6 inches deep. We need it to heat down to 6 feet deep.

"The backs of the creeks are really clear. If you go all the way back there's 3 to 4 feet of visibility. And the main lake is normally the color you'd want – about 1 foot of visibility – but not when it's this cold.

"I think this is one of those tournaments where you can't miss a bite. If you do, you're going to blow your shot at winning, because you won't have a lot of opportunities to make it up."

Hackney said he plans to fish around mid-lake. He couldn't yet hazard a guess at the winning weight.

Jason Quinn
"It's been a frustrating practice, but I'm actually excited about what I found today. I didn't think they'd bite today, but they bit pretty decent. I set the hook on a couple and they were good fish. So I saw all I needed to see.

"I've got three areas and they're pretty productive. They're in the same area of the lake. The water's starting to clear all over the lake, and it was actually a little clearer today than it was (Sunday)."

Quinn said he "hates" river fishing so he plans to fish downlake. He thinks 35 pounds might be enough to win.

Jeff Kriet
"I learned some stuff today – a totally different deal and I like it. It's now my No. 1 deal. It's something that was on my mind, and I never fished it those first 3 days of practice. I made up my mind to do it all day today, and it actually worked. I caught two by accident and one was about 4 pounds and one was about 2 3/4. So now I've got a couple deals that I think I can get some bites on.

"It's a little too muddy to fish deep. They're out there, but you just can't get them to commit at all. You can get them to chase but you can't get them to eat.

"I'm not going to fish the river. It's just too muddy. I found one place in the river where I can catch them, but I can't go fish for 7 or 8 pounds."

Kriet thinks a weight in the low-40s could win. He plans to fish downlake.

Kevin VanDam
"I did actually did learn something today. For me, that was just a function of more time on the water. As cold as it is, you can't fish super-fast. I didn't have a good practice before, and it's not that today was great by any means. But I just used today like another practice day.

"I wouldn't say I have a new pattern, but I just saw some different things and learned a few more things.

"This is the toughest I've ever seen this lake. The fishing's so tough that I think this is one Classic that anybody can win. You can probably have an off-day and still have a chance to win. It just can't be on the second day."

VanDam declined to guess at a winning weight and also declined to hint at which portion of the lake he'd fish.

Skeet Reese
"At this point in time I'm just hoping to go out and scratch out a limit. I fished all new stuff today. I tried upriver again today to see if I could make it happen, but the water temp was still too cold and the current was ripping. I called (Alabama Power) this morning and they're supposed to back off on some of the gates – go down to two turbines. I don't know if that would help or not. At this point in time, I don't plan on going up there.

"There's plenty of clear water, it's just not on the main river. Most of the creeks are clear, and all the backwaters are clear. With so much current in the main river, and cold water and stain, I've tried force-feeding them out there but I can't get them to go. Somebody might, and if they do, my hat's off to them."

Jody Adkins
"I've had eight bites in 4 days. It's fishing a lot like the Ohio River back home, except when you stick one, it's a quality fish. It's frustrating and tough to deal with, but I think the cold weather has made everybody a little more even.

"I feel great. I'm very confident, and I think the fish are going to bite Friday."

Adkins, a Federation Nation qualifier, said he plans to fish both uplake and downlake. He thinks 38 pounds could win.

Boyd Duckett
"It may not stay like it is. We had sun today, there's going to be sun tomorrow and I think the fish are starting to move a little bit.

"The areas I'm fishing are different from where I fished (in 2007). Where I caught my fish then, the grass is funky now – it's not right.

"This is probably the most pressure I've ever felt at a Classic, from the standpoint of there's so many people I know, who I fished against and grew up with – they're all pulling for me this year. I bet I've had 2,000 people come up to me and talk to me. It feels like I'm carrying more than the weight of myself this week."

Dean Rojas
"I did learn something today. I was finally able to move around. It was real hard to move when it was snowing. You couldn't see much. There was a real heavy fog and it was just hard to maneuver around the lake. Everything looks different when the sun comes out.

"I set the hook on a few fish today – there were keepers and quality – but it was just one here, one there. I'd like to think it'll get better as the week goes on. I'll just put myself in an area that gives me a chance to catch a big one."

Shaw Grigsby
"I'm going to be sight-fishing – I'll spend my whole time looking for something to throw to (laughs). I didn't really learn anything today, and it's all pretty mind-boggling. It's tough. There's not an easy anything out there, at least for me.

"Usually I can get on a body of water where there's not a lot of good fish and do pretty well. But this is a great fishery. I just think there's so much food in there that they don't need to do anything to eat. They just have to open their mouths and they can pick up dying shad.

"I'll just go fishing. It's all I can do. I'm ready to go have some fun. And the way I look at it, the tougher it is, the easier it is to win."

Mark Menendez
One of my strengths is cold water, but when you throw color in, it sure hurts things. I did figure a few things out today that I wouldn't have otherwise – I got to doing stuff that's off-the-wall – and I found some interesting things about water temperature that I wouldn't have if it had been a regular practice day. I wanted to get everything out of my system as well as inside my system today, and I found something potentially interesting."

Menendez thinks 41 pounds could be enough to win.

Russ Lane
"I had a decent day of practice before, but today was pretty horrible. I don't know if that's because I didn't really go where I think I needed to go, or if it was just a bad day of fishing. But it's definitely not like I'd like it to be out there. It was too cold for me when Boyd won, and it's really cold now.

"I think just like last time, whoever wins will have a largemouth every day. Largemouths will play some kind of factor. If it wasn't supposed to warm up the next couple of days, I wouldn't say that."

Menendez thinks 40 pounds could be enough to win.

Brent Chapman
"I didn't learn anything new today. I essentially have two areas I'm comfortable with – where I've gotten bit. I've fished all over the place and haven't gotten bit anywhere else.

"I'm confident, but I just don't know what to expect. Maybe that's a good thing. Sometimes those are your best tournaments. I planned to fish shallow here and that's what I'm going to attempt to do. And who knows – maybe with this weather warming up a little bit, it'll get them biting a little better."

Chapman thinks the winning weight will be somewhere between 35 and 40 pounds.

Stephen Browning
"Today was more of the same for me – a lot of chunking and winding. I tried to cover a lot more water and just kind of look around and be a little bit more thorough. But I rode through and looked at some of the areas I want to fish and I was shocked by the water temperature. I thought it would be a little warmer.

"I'm probably going to fish the lower end. If I had to go right now, that's where I'd start, then work my way back up. I like river fishing, and I went and looked at the river today, but that water's really moving and it hasn't had a chance to warm up. The river fish just aren't very active. So I'm going to stay on the main lake and hopefully get something going as the tournament goes on.

"I don't think there's going to be any special technique that wins this Classic – it'll be location, location, location. I think the guy who's in the right little area when the fish start to move up or start biting – that's who'll win."

Browning said he has "no clue" what the winning weight might be.

Mike Iaconelli
"I did learn something today, which was fortunate. I had a little something going in practice and I decided to leave it alone today, and use today as a whole other day of practice. I found what I think is an additional pattern, so I'm pretty happy. As tough as it is, to have anything going is a blessing. So I'm stoked.

"It's a totally different pattern – different area, different water depth, different water color. It's a total 180 from what I was doing earlier in practice. I went out today with the hopes of maybe finding two bites, and it turned into a lot more than that. I'll probably start with what I found today."

Iaconelli thinks it'll take 39 to 42 pounds to win. He declined comment on which area of the lake he plans to fish.

Aaron Martens
"I think it's changing quickly out there – a lot faster than anybody imagined it would. I was seeing some 50-degree water today, so it went from 43 to 50 in 1 day. I think the bite will almost normalize a little bit by the time the tournament gets here. Which is incredible because practice was so terrible. There's a ton of fish in the lake, and the majority would not bite a lure – they wouldn't eat – but things are changing.

"You'll have to have a few spots, but I think the majority of fish will be largemouths. They seem to be biting more consistently in the cold water, which is weird, but the spots out in the main current are hard to find.

"Techniques? It's all happening. There's definitely a finesse bite, but I think the bigger fish will be caught on reaction (lures). Today improved a lot, and (Friday) I think it'll improve tremendously."

Martens feels it could take 42 pounds or more to win.

Alton Jones
"I think I've got one bait going that maybe nobody else is throwing, but this is going to be a grind. This is one of those Classics where the guy who wins may not know he's even on them yet. It's actually going to be an interesting event, and as brutal an event as I've ever fished. I really mean that.

"I don't anticipate it getting measurably better. I think there were a lot of fish positioned to where, even if it gets warmer in the shallows, the fish won't really know it. I'm sure the better weather will help somebody along the way, but I don't think we'll see Lay Lake ignite. I think fishing your practice is going to be key.

"The bite's not good enough to cruise around. Lay Lake has a lot of fish, so if you've found one, you've probably found more than one. But the fishing's hard. You could be on a school of 100 bass and it might take all day to entice five bites. So I think it's important to fish with baits that have the potential to produce 3- or 4-pound bites. A big bite will go a long way. And there are just certain baits that are known cold-weather baits – finesse presentations like a dropshot, splitshot and shakey-heads can produce good fish in cold water. So can jerkbaits, lipless cranks and jigs. And I think there's an outside chance somebody could get them slow-rolling a spinnerbait."

Jones thinks the winning weight will be around 40 pounds.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Launches are set for 7 a.m. Central time Friday through Sunday at Beeswax Creek Park in Columbiana, Ala. Daily weigh-ins will be at the Birmingham Jefferson Convention Complex in downtown Birmingham. Doors open daily at 3 p.m. Central. All events are free and open to the public.

The 2010 Bassmaster Classic Outdoors Expo will be at the Birmingham-Jefferson Convention Complex arena. Show hours are set for noon to 8 p.m. Central time Friday; 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. Saturday; and 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Sunday. Exhibitors will offer activities such as free games with prizes, autograph sessions with top bass pros, raffles and product giveaways. Admission is free.

TV Coverage

ESPN2 programming begins Saturday with coverage at 10 a.m. Eastern time of day 1 competition. The focus then turns to day 2 with same-day, prime-time Saturday coverage at 10 p.m. Eastern.

Sunday coverage begins with a 4-hour block from 6 to 10 a.m. It'll be followed by a 2-hour show starting at 10 p.m. that features the final weigh-in.

ESPN Classic will air 5 consecutive hours of previous Classics from 5 to 10 p.m. on Sunday.

Weather Forecast

Here's the weather forecast for the tournament.

> Fri., Feb. 19 - Partly Cloudy - 54°/36°
- Wind: From the N/NW at 5 mph

> Sat., Feb. 20 - Few Showers - 57°/43°
- Wind: From the NE at 12 mph

> Sun., Feb. 21 - Partly Cloudy - 61°/52°
- Wind: From the S at 6 mph