Come Saturday, some angler will be handed a six-figure check for winning the first big-money bass tournament of 2009. But right now, that angler's confidence probably isn't real high and he's just hoping to leave the Okeechobee Eastern FLW Series with something to show for his efforts.
"I'll guarantee you that guy doesn't think he's on anything spectacular at this particular minute," Big O wizard J.T. Kenney said Tuesday (the off-day between the conclusion of practice and the beginning of the tournament today). "He thinks if he can just catch 10 pounds a day he can pocket 10 grand, and he has no idea he's getting ready to win.
"It'll come out of nowhere," Kenney went on. "He'll go to some random area, probably not even his starting spot, and it'll be like 'Oh, my God, look at this!' A place that had a few 2-pounders will have eight 7-pounders lined up in a row. They'll be all puffed up and daring him to throw something in there so they can smash it."
He predicts such a scenario because conditions in Florida are changing rapidly after an extremely difficult 4-day practice period that was marred by a cold front. The water temperature has risen dramatically (it reached 66 degrees Tuesday afternoon after starting out at 53 on the first practice day) and a new-moon phase is under way.
That means a bunch of big females will be heading for the spawning rounds. For anglers who are in the right places, it'll be almost like they fell right into their laps.
Much Different than '08
When Kenney won this event last year, the water was about 3 1/2 feet lower than it is now. The only options for anglers were the canals around the perimeter or the mid-lake flats and depressions (which he exploited).
Now there are miles upon miles of grass that's inundated by clear water. The fish are spread out, and that means the anglers will be, too (at least a lot more than last year).
As is always the case in Florida, a big bite (or even better, two of them) each day will be critical. It's rare that a 20-pound Sunshine State sack consists of five 4-pounders – it's usually more like an 8, a 4, a pair of 3s and a 2.
"Seventeen pounds a day (on the average) will probably win, and I think a 10-pound average will get paid," said Kenney, a former Okeechobee guide who also won an FLW Tour event on the Big O in 2002 and has numerous other single-digit finishes in tour-level and triple-A tournaments there. "There's a little bit of flipping water, but I think a lot of fish will be caught by guys looking at them, or at least casting to the places where they know the beds ought to be.
"The grass is either thick, or it's open water – there's not a lot of sparse grass. About the only thing you can reel through it is something like a frog, a spoon or a Fluke. There's not a lot you can do with a spinnerbait or a (lipless crankbait)."
He didn't find a lot of quality during practice and didn't catch anything over 4 pounds. But he's certainly not counting himself out as the guy who stumbles onto the Mother Lode.
"I'm not really on anything I'm excited about, but I'm excited about what I think's going to happen. It's about to bust loose."
Chad Grigsby has notched five of his eight FLW Outdoors Top-10 finishes at Okeechobee.
Grigsby Expects some Crowding
Chad Grigsby is Kenney's travel partner and an Okeechobee maven in his own right, with five of his eight FLW Outdoors Top 10s having come from there. That total includes two Tour events and last year's Series tournament, in which he finished 7th.
Even with a lot more water this year, he expects to encounter crowded conditions in some places.
"I'm sure the first spot I got to, there'll be 40 boats," he said. "You know how this place is. But I think I can catch them pretty good if the fishing's the way I presume it's going to be. I've been here enough times that I know what to look for.
"As long as I execute and don't botch it up, I think I can get to where I need to be."
He said he talked to a state employee who was taking creel surveys during practice and learned that the fish population is roughly the same as last year.
"There's just so much more water now, and there's so much more cover that the fish can get back into. In some places it's impossible to get to them.
"I don't think anybody got many bites in practice, probably because of the cold weather. But with warmer weather moving in, it should get ripe."
Notable
> Kenney has won both slugfests and low-weight events at Okeechobee, but he prefers the former. "I just like catching big bass," he said. "It's a lot more fun to catch 25 pounds instead of 12."
> Grigsby comprises one-half of the brand new FLW Goodwill Industries team. Wesley Strader is the other member.
