Ashley Up By 4-10, But Big Pack Circles For The Kill

Rookie Casey Ashley's sort of like a lone mountain man in the depths of winter. He's not sure if the food (his fish) will last, of if his furs can insulate him from the brutal weather (weekend boat traffic).

And above in the sky soars a kettle of vultures (the rest of the Smith Mt. Bassmaster Elite Series Top 12) ready to converge if he can't climb the final mountain.

But Ashley did move a step closer to his first tour-level win today when he sacked a 14-08 limit to bring his

3-day total to 42-15, and he carries a 4-10 lead into the final day. The 12th-place angler is 10 pounds away.

That's a significant margin, but remember that Ashley weighed 22 pounds yesterday, which was 6 pounds better than the heaviest bag weighed today.

A lot would have to happen for 6th-place Scroggins, or anyone below him, to win, but it's not out of the imagination. And check out the Top 5.

Dean Rojas is the one who's closest to Ashley. He caught 11-08 today to move up one spot to 2nd.

Boyd Duckett, who led days 1 and 2, died with his deep fish today and weighed 7-11, which moved him down two spots into a tie for 3rd.

The other 3rd-place angler is Skeet Reese, who caught 10-15 today. He leads the Elite Series Angler of the Year (AOY) race, and he's missed the Top 12 cut only once this season.

Here's a full look at the Top 12 who made the cut and will fish tomorrow. Total weight is followed by distance from leader in red.

1. Casey Ashley: 47-09
2. Dean Rojas: 42-15 (4-10)
3. Boyd Duckett: 41-09 (6-00)
3. Skeet Reese: 41-09 (6-00)
5. Takahiro Omori: 40-01 (7-08)
6. Terry Scroggins: 39-14 (7-11)
7. John Murray: 39-10 (7-15)
8. Matt Sphar: 39-07 (8-02)
9. Morizo Shimizu: 38-08 (9-01)
10. John Crews: 38-01 (9-08)
11. Dave Wolak: 37-14 (9-11)
12. Mike Wurm: 37-10 (9-15)

Omori, Scroggins, Crews, and Wurm all moved into the cut. Those who fell out were: Shaw Grigsby, Fred Roumbanis, Chris Lane and Mark Tucker.

Weekend boat traffic was clearly an issue today. Grigsby, as one example, had been fishing houseboats. He arrived this morning to find they'd all pulled out for a Saturday cruise.

Along with that, current was a weekend no-show, as predicted.

Ashley seems to have plenty of fish left, which makes his position that much stronger. The downside to his bite is that he's had to work hard for very few keeper bites.

Rojas struggled some this morning, which surprised him, because his morning bite had been red-hot. He rallied in the early afternoon though.

Duckett noted his deep fish are all but done, so he could be out of the race.

Reese, though, is a major wildcard. He's junk-fishing, which may be the ticket for this post-spawn bite. And he's fishing like he's on a mission.

Below him, it's a whole lot of maybes. The only certainty is that Ashley's in control. It's up to him to close tomorrow. If he weighs another 15 pounds, he's likely untouchable, but he could squeeze it out with as little as 12 or 13.

Ashley Amped (Again)

This is Ashley's 2nd Top 12 cut of the season (and he missed the Clear Lake cut by just one spot). He controls his own destiny tomorrow, and if he does hold on to win, he'll be the second rookie to clinch an event this year (the first was Derek Remitz at Amistad).

"I feel good," he said. "I don't know if I can do it again tomorrow. I guess this lake's day-to-day because the boat traffic's terrible. There's boats between you and the point you're fishing – a lot of that kind of stuff – and I only caught six keepers today.

"The bite was real tough today. It was slow, slow, slow."

Yesterday, when he caught 22 pounds, he'd ditched his day-1 deal, and he stuck with that new bite today. He had 14 1/2 pounds by lunchtime, at which point he decided not to return to some of his better spots. He did look around a little, too, but didn't find anything new.

"I just need to stick with it," he said of his newer pattern, which he's working in 10 to 14 feet of water. "I've probably got 10 or 12 spots. You just hit one, then the next one, then the next one, then go back.

"They just pull in to feed," he added. "They're there early (in the morning), but they must be suspended and chasing bait. I can't catch them on top, but when the sun comes up, I can (catch them below the surface)."

About his chances to win, he said: "I think they're pretty good. The fish are replenishing. I caught a 5-pounder today where I caught a 6 yesterday. And I have another point that produced a good fish."

His greatest threat, he said, is the weekend night tournaments. There was one last night, and another planned for tonight. He's pretty sure he's fishing a community hole, and he's not sure how many fish the boats are removing at night.

"I'm trying not to be nervous," he said of his emotions. "Ill try to keep my head on right tomorrow and just relax and fish."

2nd: Rojas Over the Hump

Rojas, in 2nd, trails Ashley by 4-12. Not a big number considering the up-down nature of the weights this week.

"I feel great," he said. "I'm in 2nd place, and I've got a chance to win tomorrow. I'll just give it everything I've got tomorrow. I worked hard all week to get to this point, and it's just a matter of getting the bites tomorrow to put me over the top."

He told BassFan yesterday that he'd saved a few spots today, and he went to one today.

"I was able to catch them on it too," he said. "That helped out a lot. They weren't feeding as well this morning as they'd been the last 6 days. But I've seen this before with lakes like this. The third day's the hump day, and then they start eating again.

"I'm excited about tomorrow."

About why his morning bite was different, he noted that it wasn't because of boat traffic. "I think the weather was a little bit different today. It was warm, but warm and dry. It wasn't muggy or foggy this morning. It was really bright. There wasn't a whole lot of moisture, but once it got warm and the humidity kicked in, they started eating."

He didn't have his limit until 11:00, when he caught three fish fairly quickly, then he caught his biggest (a 3 1/2) at 1:00.

To win, he thinks he needs a big sack, and Ashley has to stumble.

"Doing what I'm doing is conducive for catching a really big sack. I just need to go out and try to catch a really good bag and put this thing away."

6th: Scroggins 'Fortunate'

They call him "Big Show," and Scroggins lived up to that name today with 15-09 – the best limit of the day.

This is his first tour-level Top 12 of the season, but he won back-to-back Bassmaster Southern Opens this spring, and his team won the recent Toyota Texas Bass Classic. So overall he's pretty hot.

"I was pretty fortunate today," he said. "Yesterday I caught them all on topwater. I went back to throwing topwater this morning and got one good bite – it was over 4 pounds. Then I caught another keeper.

"But the topwater bite went away real early and I went offshore. Maybe things happen for a reason, because by 8:45 I had five pretty good fish, and then it got tough due to the boat traffic."

So he feels fortunate that his topwater bite died earlier than usual, because it showed him that he's got to get out deep quick, before the local traffic hits.

He noted he'll do the same thing tomorrow – hit some quick topwater, then head deep.

On whether he thinks he can win, he said: "I can, but I'd have to have a 20-pound bag, and Casey would have to stumble a little. But I really look for him to win this event. He's a good guy, and a rookie starting out. I'd be tickled to see him win it.

"Second place is very reachable," he added. "I'm 3 pounds behind Dean, and that's very doable. Anything can happen, especially with the conditions we've got."

About his fishing of late, he said: "I feel I've been making some good decisions. I'm really concentrating and only thinking about fishing when I'm out there. It's working pretty well right now."

7th: Murray's Fifth Came Late

John Murray went out with the confidence he could catch a big bag today, but he quickly learned what a Smith Mt. Saturday's all about.

He weighed 11-02, but he had to work his butt off for it.

"They say Saturdays are tough here and they're not kidding," he said.

"I started out dropshotting some outside stuff and caught a 4-pounder pretty quick. Then I ran a bunch of stuff and didn't do that much. I was pretty worried, but at 11:00, I caught my fourth one."

After that, he moved to his "big-fish stuff," but he never boxed his fifth until the final 15 minutes.

On whether he thinks he can win, he said: "I don't really have the confidence in that, other than (knowing) a big bag could be had.

"It's just been so inconsistent for me. I would have bet money I could have caught a bit limit today, but it just didn't happen.

"Tomorrow, I'm going to rearrange the order of the stuff I'm going to fish," he added. "I need one of those 20-pound sacks, and Casey has to blow out (for me to win), but my goal is to catch a limit and keep as many points as I can."

13th: Tyler Happy

Tyler, missed the cut by an ounce. He's bummed about that, of course, but in all he's happy with his finish. He'd never been to the lake before, and figured it would be a throwaway event because post-spawn is his big weakness.

His three limits weighed 11-11, 14-05, and 11-09.

"Overall, I'm really happy," he said. "This is a venue I've never even been to before. I didn't come here and pre-practice. I almost kind of wrote this one off and went and spent my time and energy practicing other lakes like Erie and Champlain. And I had zero info on this lake. I just went with my 3 days of practice.

"To have a strong finish, I'm pretty happy with the outcome," he added. "Obviously I'm disappointed that it's my second 13th-place finish of the season, because when you get close, you start expecting and wanting more. But when you step back and look at it, you have to be really happy with a 13th-place finish. I didn't really have any expectations here."

And as it turned out, he didn't need to wrestle with post-spawn fish. He found some spawners, and even some post-spawners, which he said was a "total shock." So he just stuck with that all 3 days.

Notable

> Day 3 stats – 50 anglers, 32 limits, 7 fours, 2 threes, 5 twos, 3 ones, 1 zero.

> Ashley's currently 3rd in the BassFan Rookie of the Year Race.

> Duckett weighed just 7-11 today – about half what he weighed yesterday. "I stayed out there with them," he said of his deep fish. "I don't know if the fish are used up, or they stopped biting. They'd been nailing a Berkley Hand Pour worm during practice and the past few days. Maybe I should have done something different (today), but you get a bite every hour or so out there and that keeps you going."

> Duckett has a well-known superstition concerning his shoes. About his choice of shoes today, and tomorrow, he said: "It's like the rules in a ballgame. These shoes (today) are like pitchers for me. This (pair) was a bad choice today, but I have some closes left. (One's) an old pair. They're strong."

> Reese is currently the only angler inside the Top 12 who's ranked 10th or higher in the BassFan World Rankings presented by Tru-Tungsten. He's currently ranked 3rd in the world.

> Wolak caught 10-01 today and made the cut in 11th. He noted: "I'm just running around. I have some prior knowledge of this lake, and I know how to get around. Tomorrow I'm hoping to fish all new stuff and maybe sack them up."

> Grigsby weighed a single fish today and fell from 5th to finish 36th. "I had two patterns going," he said. "One was kind of funny, and I didn't think about this being Saturday. I'd caught them throwing a swimbait around big houseboats, and when I pulled in this morning, they were all out on the like. I was like, 'Oh man, all my cover left.' It was one of those days."

Weather Forecast

Here's the forecast for the final tournament day.

> Sun, June 10 – Sunny – 86°/60°
- Wind: From the N at 6 mph

Day 3 Standings

1. Casey Ashley -- Donalds, SC -- 15, 47-09 -- 305
Day 1: 5, 11-01 -- Day 2: 5, 22-00 -- Day 3: 5, 14-08

2. Dean Rojas -- Grand Saline, TX -- 15, 42-15 -- 295
Day 1: 5, 13-02 -- Day 2: 5, 18-05 -- Day 3: 5, 11-08

3. Skeet Reese -- Auburn, CA -- 15, 41-09 -- 287.5
Day 1: 5, 13-01 -- Day 2: 5, 17-09 -- Day 3: 5, 10-15

3. Boyd Duckett -- Demopolis, AL -- 14, 41-09 -- 297.5
Day 1: 5, 19-05 -- Day 2: 5, 14-09 -- Day 3: 4, 07-11

5. Takahiro Omori -- Emory, TX -- 15, 40-01 -- 280
Day 1: 5, 12-01 -- Day 2: 5, 13-07 -- Day 3: 5, 14-09

6. Terry Scroggins -- San Mateo, FL -- 15, 39-14 -- 276
Day 1: 5, 12-08 -- Day 2: 5, 11-13 -- Day 3: 5, 15-09

7. John Murray -- Phoenix, AZ -- 15, 39-10 -- 272
Day 1: 5, 12-10 -- Day 2: 5, 15-14 -- Day 3: 5, 11-02

8. Matthew Sphar -- Pavilion, NY -- 15, 39-07 -- 268
Day 1: 5, 13-10 -- Day 2: 5, 14-05 -- Day 3: 5, 11-08

9. Morizo Shimizu -- Murrieta, CA -- 15, 38-08 -- 264
Day 1: 5, 15-03 -- Day 2: 5, 11-04 -- Day 3: 5, 12-01

10. John Crews -- Salem, VA -- 14, 38-01 -- 260
Day 1: 4, 07-11 -- Day 2: 5, 14-08 -- Day 3: 5, 15-14

11. Dave Wolak -- Wake Forest, NC -- 15, 37-14 -- 257
Day 1: 5, 11-08 -- Day 2: 5, 16-05 -- Day 3: 5, 10-01

12. Mike Wurm -- Hot Springs, AR -- 15, 37-10 -- 254
Day 1: 5, 12-04 -- Day 2: 5, 13-14 -- Day 3: 5, 11-08

The following anglers didn't make the cut and won't be fishing tomorrow:

13. Mark Tyler -- Vian, OK -- 15, 37-09 -- 251 -- $10,800
Day 1: 5, 11-11 -- Day 2: 5, 14-05 -- Day 3: 5, 11-09

14. Greg Hackney -- Gonzales, LA -- 15, 36-08 -- 248 -- $11,700
Day 1: 5, 11-11 -- Day 2: 5, 10-06 -- Day 3: 5, 14-07

15. Peter E Thliveros -- Jacksonville, FL -- 15, 35-11 -- 245 -- $10,600
Day 1: 5, 09-06 -- Day 2: 5, 14-14 -- Day 3: 5, 11-07

16. Fred Roumbanis -- Auburn, CA -- 15, 35-07 -- 242 -- $10,500
Day 1: 5, 10-11 -- Day 2: 5, 16-04 -- Day 3: 5, 08-08

16. Stephen Browning -- Hot Springs, AR -- 15, 35-07 -- 242 -- $10,500
Day 1: 5, 12-00 -- Day 2: 5, 13-12 -- Day 3: 5, 09-11

18. Michael Iaconelli -- Runnemede, NJ -- 15, 35-06 -- 239 -- $10,500
Day 1: 5, 09-08 -- Day 2: 5, 14-13 -- Day 3: 5, 11-01

19. Denny Brauer -- Camdenton, MO -- 14, 35-05 -- 237 -- $10,500
Day 1: 5, 13-09 -- Day 2: 4, 10-15 -- Day 3: 5, 10-13

20. Gary Klein -- Weatherford, TX -- 15, 35-02 -- 234 -- $10,375
Day 1: 5, 14-05 -- Day 2: 5, 08-15 -- Day 3: 5, 11-14

20. Jeremy Starks -- Charleston, WV -- 15, 35-02 -- 234 -- $10,375
Day 1: 5, 10-15 -- Day 2: 5, 13-00 -- Day 3: 5, 11-03

22. Edwin Evers -- Talala, OK -- 14, 35-00 -- 231 -- $10,250
Day 1: 4, 11-11 -- Day 2: 5, 10-12 -- Day 3: 5, 12-09

23. Bryan Hudgins -- Orange Park, FL -- 15, 34-14 -- 228 -- $10,250
Day 1: 5, 16-06 -- Day 2: 5, 09-05 -- Day 3: 5, 09-03

23. James Niggemeyer -- Van, TX -- 15, 34-14 -- 228 -- $10,250
Day 1: 5, 10-04 -- Day 2: 5, 15-13 -- Day 3: 5, 08-13

25. Randy Howell -- Springville, AL -- 15, 34-02 -- 225 -- $10,250
Day 1: 5, 12-00 -- Day 2: 5, 12-07 -- Day 3: 5, 09-11

26. Rick Clunn -- Ava, MO -- 14, 34-01 -- 223 -- $11,000
Day 1: 5, 15-11 -- Day 2: 5, 09-01 -- Day 3: 4, 09-05

27. Jason Quinn -- Lake Wylie, SC -- 15, 33-10 -- 221 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 13-00 -- Day 2: 5, 10-14 -- Day 3: 5, 09-12

28. Kevin Wirth -- Crestwood, KY -- 15, 33-09 -- 219 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 12-12 -- Day 2: 5, 07-15 -- Day 3: 5, 12-14

29. Bradley Stringer -- Huntington, TX -- 15, 32-15 -- 217 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 09-07 -- Day 2: 5, 13-04 -- Day 3: 5, 10-04

30. Kurt Dove -- Fairfax, VA -- 14, 32-14 -- 215 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 11-11 -- Day 2: 5, 13-09 -- Day 3: 4, 07-10

31. Jeff Reynolds -- Idabel, OK -- 15, 32-12 -- 213 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 13-04 -- Day 2: 5, 10-07 -- Day 3: 5, 09-01

32. Jeff Kriet -- Ardmore, OK -- 15, 32-07 -- 210 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 08-02 -- Day 2: 5, 12-09 -- Day 3: 5, 11-12

32. Marty Stone -- Fayetteville, NC -- 14, 32-07 -- 210 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 13-04 -- Day 2: 5, 09-07 -- Day 3: 4, 09-12

34. Jared Lintner -- Arroyo Grande, CA -- 15, 31-13 -- 207 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 11-11 -- Day 2: 5, 10-00 -- Day 3: 5, 10-02

35. Davy Hite -- Ninety Six, SC -- 14, 31-12 -- 205 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 09-08 -- Day 2: 5, 12-01 -- Day 3: 4, 10-03

36. Shaw E Grigsby, Jr -- Gainesville, FL -- 11, 31-07 -- 203 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 12-11 -- Day 2: 5, 16-08 -- Day 3: 1, 02-04

37. Mark Tucker -- Saint Louis, MO -- 13, 31-05 -- 201 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 12-01 -- Day 2: 5, 14-05 -- Day 3: 3, 04-15

38. Kelly Jordon -- Mineola, TX -- 14, 31-04 -- 199 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 13-01 -- Day 2: 5, 10-02 -- Day 3: 4, 08-01

39. Kevin VanDam -- Kalamazoo, MI -- 15, 31-03 -- 197 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 09-15 -- Day 2: 5, 11-01 -- Day 3: 5, 10-03

40. Chris Lane -- Winter Haven, FL -- 12, 31-01 -- 195 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 12-08 -- Day 2: 5, 14-05 -- Day 3: 2, 04-04

41. Gerald Swindle -- Warrior, AL -- 15, 30-15 -- 193 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 11-03 -- Day 2: 5, 09-09 -- Day 3: 5, 10-03

42. Ray Sedgwick -- Cross, SC -- 14, 29-00 -- 191 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 12-03 -- Day 2: 5, 09-10 -- Day 3: 4, 07-03

43. Lee Bailey -- Boaz, AL -- 13, 28-06 -- 189 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 12-11 -- Day 2: 5, 10-06 -- Day 3: 3, 05-05

44. Timmy Horton -- Muscle Shoals, AL -- 12, 27-15 -- 187 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 13-14 -- Day 2: 5, 10-13 -- Day 3: 2, 03-04

45. Mark Menendez -- Paducah, KY -- 10, 27-02 -- 185 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 13-13 -- Day 2: 3, 07-12 -- Day 3: 2, 05-09

46. Russ Lane -- Prattville, AL -- 12, 26-15 -- 183 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 11-11 -- Day 2: 5, 12-04 -- Day 3: 2, 03-00

47. Ishama Monroe -- Hughson, CA -- 9, 26-02 -- 181 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 16-03 -- Day 2: 3, 07-11 -- Day 3: 1, 02-04

48. Doc Merkin -- Downers Grove, IL -- 10, 24-09 -- 179 -- $10,000
Day 1: 3, 09-00 -- Day 2: 5, 11-08 -- Day 3: 2, 04-01

49. Cliff Pace -- Petal, MS -- 10, 24-02 -- 177 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 10-15 -- Day 2: 5, 13-03 -- Day 3: 0, 00-00

50. James Kennedy -- Lacombe, LA -- 11, 22-05 -- 175 -- $10,000
Day 1: 5, 09-10 -- Day 2: 5, 11-08 -- Day 3: 1, 01-03

Big Bass

> Day 3 -- Greg Hackney -- Gonzales, LA -- 05-01 -- $1,000
> Day 2 -- Dean Rojas -- Grand Saline, TX -- 06-05 -- $1,000
> Day 1 -- Rick Clunn -- Ava, MO -- 06-07 -- $1,000