Wind, Warmth Turn Amistad Into A Guessing Game

Last year when the Bassmaster Elite Series rolled into Del Rio, Texas for the Amistad season opener, the field faced what was largely a virgin lake.

A lot has changed in the year since. Heavy tournament pressure, and angling pressure in general, has at least a few in the field thinking the fishery

isn't what it once was. There are lots of smaller fish, and lots of large fish, but so far, not a lot of the 3- to 5-pound bag fillers everyone needs for a check.

Mother Nature's also a little different this year. The lake is right on the verge of a spawn, but it hasn't happened yet. And since most of practice was brutally windy, the field had just a short day yesterday – when the sight-fishing weather improved – to drive around and actually see what's happening under the water.

Of course, different arms or sections of the lake may be at different stages of the spawn, but as of last night, most reported seeing males along shore with lots of empty beds, and a few packs of cruising females.

In other words, not many females have locked on yet. But the water temperature is rising due to warm nights, and the moon is full. So it could all play out like last year's Santee Cooper event, when the spawn happened overnight before day 1.

Then again, Amistad is deeper and clearer than Santee, so it takes longer on average to warm up, which could push any major spawning activity toward the end of this weekend.

Before more about the bite and who to watch at Amistad, here's more about the lake itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake Name: Amistad
> Type of Water: Desert impoundment of the Rio Grande River
> Surface Acres: 67,000
> Primary structure/cover: Brush and grass (hydrilla), plus points, breaks and rocks
> Average depth: Not available
> Species: Largemouths
> Length limit: 14 inches
> Reputation: One of North America's premier bass fisheries for both numbers and size, with lots of giants
> Weather: Heavy winds and cool nights during practice have given way to warmer weather, sun and calmer conditions. Daytime highs will push 80 degrees during competition, with not much wind.
> Water temperature: 55 to 57 degrees and climbing
> Water color/visibility: Clear, 10 to 12 feet
> Water level: about 16 feet below full pool (significant because new islands have appeared)
> Fish in: All depths
> Fish phase: pre-spawn and spawn
> Primary patterns: Sight-fishing, blind-casting Senkos, pitching plastics to wood, jerkbaits, spinnerbaits, Carolina-rigs, big worms and swimbaits
> Winning weight: 94 pounds
> Cut weight (Top 50): 35 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 4 for Amistad
> Biggest factor: The spawn – when will they come?
> Wildcard: Two 11-pounders or a 15

Sight Vs. Bite

As noted, the biggest question right now is whether the event will become a full-blown sight-fishing affair, or more of a mixed bag.

The general feeling in the field right now is it'll be a mixed bag, simply because there are so few fish locked on. If an angler does pop a good fish or two off a bed, he'll probably have to go fishing too and try to pick off some stagers on bushes or wood.

That was an important pattern last year – pitching to wood – and it should be this year too.

Another factor could be the spinnerbait bite on the flats. The water's so clear, that the cruisers are nearly impossible to catch when spotted (they see you too). But long casts with reaction baits can get them to go, which is where guys like Kevin VanDam, Gerald Swindle and Mike Iaconelli come in strong.

But the wildcard still remains the sight-bite, and the sub-plot there is that the compacted practice window for sight-fishing throws huge favor to specialists like Kelly Jordon, Ish Monroe, Preston Clark and others, who can quickly judge a cove and decide which fish are catchable, so they don't waste time on day 1.

The Pig Factor

Probably the second major factor at the event is a jumbo bite, and by jumbo, we mean 12 pounds plus. Ish Monroe won here last year with 104-08 for 4 days (a 26-pound average). His biggest fish was a 9-pounder, and the biggest fish of the event was a 10 1/2.

But competitors lost 12s and 13s, and there are 15s here. So while you can win with 5s and 6s, a big bite helps. At the same time, you can't win with just a big bite – you need the 5s and 6s to back it up.

That said, it may not take 104 pounds to win this year, at least according to Monroe.

"The weights are down – it's definitely not the same lake as last year," he said after practice. "It's a combination of pressure and time of year. I'm seeing lots of little males without girlfriends, and I honestly think the tournament will be won doing a lot of different things – not solely sight-fishing."

Although Amistad has hosted a number of large-field tournaments since he last fished here, he thinks the "pressure" problem has more to do with angler harvest.

"They're keeping them and eating them," he said. "They're out there cleaning 5-pounders every day. You can't have that. They need a slot limit on this lake or something, because it's not like it was last year.

"Somebody's still going to catch them, but I don't think it'll be the awesome slugfest you saw last year," he added. "The guys who are out deep are going to catch some big bags. Then, I think by Saturday, there should be a good amount of bedfish locked on."

He thinks it'll take 32 pounds to make the day-2 Top 50 cut.

Further Notes

John Crews

The Crews Missile spent his practice looking for a pattern he could run with, but hasn't found Top 10 quality yet (unless he's hiding something). He does think the spawn will eventually peak sometime during the event, but he's not sure when.

"If this lake was the same depth and clarity as Santee, the spawn would be on big-time," he said. "But I'm not familiar enough with it to know if it'll warm up quickly enough to really get going.

"I've been running around a little bit – trying to find a pattern – but I really can't get anything dialed in. I've caught some big fish, but I'm really unsure about what the tournament's going to bring."

> He thinks it'll take 30 to 35 pounds to make the Top 50 cut.

Mike McClelland

"The fishing actually seems like it's a little slower this time," McClelland said. "It's about the same in terms of bites and the number of fish you can catch each day, but there's no mid-range fish. It's either 1 to 2 pounds, or 5 or better."

Like everyone else, he's seen lots of fish cruising, but not a lot on beds. "But the opportunity's probably pretty strong that they'll show up by the end of the week."

> He thinks it'll take 40 pounds to make the Top 50 cut. "If you get five bites, chances are they're going to weigh 20 pounds," he said. "They'll either weigh 20 pounds or 10 1/2.

Top 10 To Watch

With the above in mind and more, here's BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch at this event. In no particular order, they are:

1. Kelly Jordon – One of the all-around best sight-fishermen in the field. His uncanny ability to spot the right fish to catch – even when bigger ones are nearby – puts him at a distinct advantage.

2. Kevin VanDam – The Krusher is fresh off a near win at the Bassmaster Classic and is basically dominating the sport. He finished 6th here last year with a mix of sight-fishing and spinnerbaiting. Currently the No. 1 ranked angler in the world.

3. Preston Clark – He missed the cut here last year, but won at Santee Cooper. Like Jordon, he's tough to beat in a bed-fishing event. If it goes that way, watch out. If it doesn't, Clark probably won't be a factor.

4. Mike Iaconelli – This is his first regular-season event since winning the 2006 BASS Angler of the Year award, and his goal is a Top 20. The bite could set up well for him if the fish are staging on isolated cover. He's ranked No. 2 in the world behind VanDam.

5. Gerald Swindle – One to watch because this is his first event since a devastating day-2 DQ at the Bassmaster Classic. He's got something to prove – to himself and his fans – and odds say he'll rebound.

6. Fred Roumbanis – He finished 2nd to Monroe here last year with a swimbait attack. Since the fish aren't bedding yet, that means the swimbait could be on big-time, which would be perfect for this California pro. He spent the whole tournament last time out deep, and probably will again.

7. Greg Hackney – He had a miserable Classic, and wants redemption. Another one who's tough to beat during pre-spawn. And remember that he finished 4th here last year.

8. Gary Klein – Like Roumbanis, he fished a lot of deep stuff here last year. His 8th-place finish wasn't really indicative of what he was on, and he's probably working those same fish again. But given the stage of the spawn, his bite is probably better this time around.

9. Dean Rojas – It's tough not to pick Rojas during the pre-spawn and spawn on a desert impoundment. That's his dream scenario.

10. Ben Matsubu – Consider him a good dark-horse pick. He's back at the tour level, lives in Texas, and something says that he'll pop a few good ones.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Anglers launch daily at 6:50 a.m. CT from Lake Amistad Resort & Marina (16 East Diablo, Del Rio, TX). Daily weigh-ins begin at the same location at 3 p.m. CT.

Notable

> BassFan Big Stick John Murray got the flu and had a short practice. To read his report, click here to go On Tour With The BassFan Big Sticks.

> To read BassFan's final-day story from last year's event, which includes standings, click here.

> Byron Velvick owns a house on the lake. Last year, he finished dead last after a tough day 1, then an all-out gamble on day 2. He bears watching as well.

> Look for BassFan's day-1 coverage of the event tonight after weigh-in concludes.

> The full 2007 Elite Series field appears below.

Weather Forecast

Here's the Weather Channel's forecast for the tournament days:

> Thurs, March 8 – AM Clouds/PM Sun – 75°/55°
- Wind: From the SE at 14 mph

> Fri, March 9 – AM Clouds/PM Sun – 77°/57°
- Wind: From the S/SE at 11 mph

> Sat, March 10 – Partly Cloudy – 81°/59°
- Wind: From the SE at 12 mph

> Sun, March 11 – Isolated T-Storms – 82°/55°
- Wind: From the N/NE at 10 mph

2007 Elite Series Field

> Field = 108 pros

Matt Amedeo -- Akron, Ohio
Rick Ash -- Pottstown, Pa.
Casey Ashley -- Donalds, S.C.
Lee Bailey -- Boaz, Ala. --
Tommy Biffle -- Wagoner, Okla.
Jon Bondy -- Windsor, Ontario
Denny Brauer -- Camdenton, Mo.
Ken Brodeur -- Niantic, Conn.
Stephen Browning -- Hot Springs , Ark.
Terry Butcher -- Talala, Okla.
Scott Campbell -- Springfield , Mo.
Brent Chapman -- Lake Quivira , Ks.
James Charlesworth -- St. Cloud, Fla.
Preston Clark -- Palatka, Fla.
Rick Clunn -- Ava, Mo.
Jeff Connella -- Bentley, La.
Ken Cook -- Meers, Okla.
John Crews -- Salem, Va.
Steve Daniel -- Clewiston, Fla.
Glenn DeLong -- Bellville, Ohio
Kurt Dove -- Warrenton, Va.
Boyd Duckett -- Demopolis, Ala.
Guy Eaker -- Cherryville, N.C.
Paul Elias -- Pachuta, Miss.
Edwin Evers -- Talala, Okla.
Todd Faircloth -- Jasper, Texas
Jami Fralick -- Martin, S.D.
Grant Goldbeck -- Gaithersburg , Md.
Shaw Grigsby -- Gainesville , Fla.
Greg Gutierrez -- Red Bluff, Calif.
Greg Hackney -- Gonzales, La.
Bradley Hallman -- Norman, Okla.
Charlie Hartley -- Grove City, Ohio
Kenyon Hill -- Norman, Okla.
Paul Hirosky -- Guys Mills, Pa.
Davy Hite -- Ninety Six, S.C.
Timmy Horton -- Muscle Shoals, Ala.
Randy Howell -- Springville, Ala.
Bryan Hudgins -- Orange Park, Fla
Michael Iaconelli -- Runnemede, N.J.
Alton Jones -- Waco, Tex.
Kelly Jordon -- Mineola, Texas
James Kennedy -- Lacombe, La.
Steve Kennedy -- Auburn, Ala.
Kotaro Kiriyama -- Moody, Ala.
Gary Klein -- Weatherford, Texas
Jeff Kriet -- Ardmore, Okla.
Chris Lane -- Winter Haven, Fla.
Russ Lane -- Prattville, Ala.
Kevin Langill -- Terrell, N.C.
Jared Lintner -- Arroyo Grande, Calif.
Bill Lowen -- Cincinnati, Ohio
Elton Luce Jr. -- Brookeland, Texas
Aaron Martens -- Leeds, Ala.
Jimmy Mason -- Rogersville, Ala.
Ben Matsubu -- Hemphill, Texas
Mike McClelland -- Bella Vista, Ark.
Mark Menendez -- Paducah, Ky.
Doc Merkin -- Downers Groove, Ill.
Yusuke Miyazaki -- Mineola, Texas
Jimmy Mize -- Ben Lomond, Ark.
Ish Monroe -- Hughson, Calif.
Rick Morris -- Virginia Beach, Va.
Jim Murray -- Arabi, Ga.
John Murray -- Phoenix, Ariz.
Britt Myers -- Mt. Holly, N.C.
Eric Nethery -- Acworth, Ga.
James Niggemeyer -- Lindale, Texas
Takahiro Omori -- Emory, Texas
Cliff Pace -- Petal, Miss. -- .
Keith Phillips -- Calera, Ala.
Pete Ponds -- Madison, Miss.
Jason Quinn -- Lake Wylie, S.C.
Matt Reed -- Madisonville, Texas
Skeet Reese -- Auburn, Calif.
Derek Remitz -- Hemphill, Texas
Jeff Reynolds -- Idabel, Okla.
Marty Robinson -- Landrum, S.C.
Mark Rogers -- Naples, Fla.
Dean Rojas -- Lake Havasu, Ariz.
Scott Rook -- Little Rock , Ark.
Fred Roumbanis -- Auburn, Calif.
Zell Rowland -- Montgomery, Texas
Frank Scalish -- Cleveland Heights, Ohio
Bernie Schultz -- Gainesville , Fla.
Darrin Schwenkbeck -- Silver Spring, Md.
Terry Scroggins -- Palatka, Fla.
Ray Sedgwick -- Cross, S.C.
Morizo Shimizu -- Suita Osaka, Japan
Kevin Short -- Mayflower, Ark.
Bill Smith -- Somerset, Ky.
Dave Smith -- Del City, Okla.
Brian Snowden -- Reeds Spring, Mo.
Matthew Sphar -- Pavilion, N.Y.
Jeremy Starks -- Charleston, W. Va.
Marty Stone -- Linden, N.C.
Bradley Stringer -- Huntington, Texas
Gerald Swindle -- Hayden, Ala.
Peter Thliveros -- Jacksonville , Fla.
Mark Tucker -- Saint Louis, Mo.
Mark Tyler -- Scottsdale, Ariz.
Kevin VanDam -- Kalamazoo, Mich.
Byron Velvick -- Boulder City, Nev.
Jason Williamson -- Aiken, S.C.
Kevin Wirth -- Crestwood, Ky.
Dave Wolak -- Warrior Run, Pa.
Mike Wurm -- Hot Springs, Ark.
Charlie Youngers -- Oviedo, Fla.