By BassFan Staff

Who will win the 48th Bassmaster Classic today? Perhaps it'll be Brent Ehrler.

Why Ehrler? We could throw a lot of numbers at you – his seven FLW Tour wins, his 2006 Forrest Wood Cup, his 2012 Major League Fishing Summit Cup, his three Classic appearances since switching tours, his nearly $3 million in combined career earnings, and blah, blah, blah.
But the real reason to look toward Ehrler is because of his starting position on Sunday morning.

Over the last four years, a run that could be called the "Comeback Era" of the Classic, the average final-day starting position of the eventual winner was … drum roll, please …9th place.

In 2014, Randy Howell began the day on Lake Guntersville in 11th place behind leader Edwin Evers. That, of course, was before Howell heeded some early morning divine inspiration, changing the direction his bass boat was pointed, tying on a Livingston Howeller crankbait and boating a final-day load of bass that weighed 29-02, good enough for the come-from-behind win.

In 2015, hometown champ Casey Ashley began day 3 in 5th place behind leader Takahiro Omori as the coldest Classic ever ran its course. After a day of casting his homemade underspin to Lake Hartwell’s bass, Ashley stormed from behind with a limit that weighed 20-03. Given the comparable size differences between Guntersville and Hartwell big bass, that bag limit was every bit as impressive as Howell’s was 12 months earlier.

In 2016, Evers started in 3rd place behind leader Jason Christie, more than 6 pounds out of the lead. But a charge up Grand Lake’s Elk River – and one epic day of bass fishing later ¬ Evers had completed his own stirring come-from-behind special, topping his fellow Oklahoma angler, tour roommate, and good friend Christie with a stunning 29-03 sack

Last year, Jordan Lee began the final day mired in 15th place, almost 14 pounds behind leader Ehrler. Add in boat trouble and Lee might have been tempted to cry “Houston, we have a problem.” Instead, the former Auburn Tiger went out and produced a bass-fishing miracle, storming from behind for the Classic win with 27-04 of Lake Conroe bass.

Add up the final-day starting positions of the last four winners and average them out, and you come up with a number just short of 9th. Who sat in 9th place to start the final day this year? Ehrler, that's who.

So, if the comeback formula of recent years holds up on Sunday, expect the Californian to claim his first Classic triumph at the Bons Secours Wellness Arena in downtown Greenville, S.C.

Hackney's Fish Moved

Greg Hackney, who finished 35th with 22-13, said the fish he was targeting moved between Wednesday's final practice day and day 1 of competition on Friday. He suspects the culprit might've been the powerful opening-day winds.

"I was fishing close, but it seemed like all those fish pulled back out and suspended," he said. "They were in anywhere from 35 to 50 feet of water, suspended around 25, and I couldn't catch them.

"I had some other stuff, but that was the only way I felt like I could get any of the big ones."

Clausen's Offshore Pattern Fizzled

Luke Clausen, competing in his first Classic since winning in 2006, said he stubbornly stuck with an offshore pattern that was deteriorating as the week went on. He ended up 32nd with 32-09.

"If anything, I left practice overconfident," he said. "As time went on, there were less fish out there and the ones that were left were harder to catch. It wasn't that hard to get bit in practice a week ago.

"Today I went to the bank and caught a few, but I knew that wasn't the way to win."

Shallow Bite Eluded Ike

Mike Iaconelli (38th) was frustrated that he wrote off any sort of shallow-water pattern in practice. He didn’t bit consistently enough to make it part of his tournament strategy. Now, he wishes he had.

“I didn’t give it enough merit,” he said. “I didn’t expect the deep bite to go away like it did. I think I figured it out today, but it could be a combination of the warming, too. I fished a lot of shallow stuff in practice and would catch one here and there, but never put it together. Today, for the last hour and a half, I started to put together what I should’ve been fishing shallow. It stinks when you do it that late in the game.”

It was the shallow grass in the backs of creeks and pockets that tipped Iaconelli off today.

“That dog fennel ¬– I knew it was going to be a player,” he noted. “To me you had to be in the backs of those drains and it had to be stained water. It couldn’t be crystal clear or be muddy. You’d roll in there and three-quarters of the way back, there’d be a couple docks. You’d hit them on the way in and you’d fire a ChatterBait in the very back I started seeing some bluegill back there. All of the elements were there to be a winning pattern, but it didn’t materialize for me last week or on Wednesday.

“It’s hard on the ones you’re trying to predict what’s going to happen. Some of my worst Classics have been the ones where I’m not able to put my finger on what they’re doing.”

Big Fish Bait Let Wiggins Down

Jesse Wiggins (46th) was flat-out confused. The bait that seemed to attract only big fish in practice suddenly became the bait only small fish would eat on day 2 of the Classic.

The Alabama pro, fishing his second Classic, registered a limit, but it was a paltry 5-06 and he finished a distant xxx.

“I could’ve caught 10 pounds with a worm, but I would’ve found myself in the same place,” he said. “I went for the bigger ones. I don’t know what happened.

“I have to stop stinking it up in these Classics or they’re not going to invite me back. People talk about swinging for the fences. I tripped over the bats in the on-deck circle today.”