Guntersville Won't Live Up To Reputation This Time

One of the aspects of professional bass fishing that separates it from most sports is the unpredictability of the venues. It's tough for a football or baseball field or a basketball court to have an off year, but lakes definitely experience them.

Lake Guntersville, the legendary Tennessee River impoundment in Alabama, has had a down year as it prepares to host the final tour event of 2011. A large contingent of the top anglers from both major circuits will square off with it this week during an FLW Open, but the vast majority won't catch the type of bags they're accustomed to.

Sacks approaching 30 pounds are usually possible here, but there's almost no chance that such stringers will be seen this week. Half of that would seem to be a good target weight, and a single 5-pound-plus fish could mean the difference between a mediocre day and an excellent one.

Before delving into more about the bite, here's some info about the lake itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake name: Guntersville
> Type of water: Lowland reservoir fed by the Tennessee River
> Surface acres: Approximately 70,000
> Primary structure/cover: Grass (hydrilla and milfoil), ledges, riprap
> Average depth: Roughly 15 feet
> Species: Largemouths, spotted bass
> Reputation: A legendary fishery that endures tremendous fishing pressure
> Weather: Unseasonably chilly in the wake of a cold front that moved it at mid-week, altering conditions dramatically from a sunny, warm practice period.
> Water temp: High 60s to low 70s, but falling
> Water visibility/color: At least 3 feet in most areas/tinged
> Water level: Normal fall pool
> Fish in: All depths
> Fish phase: Fall
> Primary patterns: Flipping and pitching, plastics, jigs, topwaters, swimbaits
> Winning weight: 67 pounds (4 days)
> Cut weight (Top 10 after 3 days): 45 pounds
> Check weight: 12 pounds a day
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 2 for Guntersville
> Biggest factors: Weather – will the aftermath of the front kickstart what had been a tough bite?
> Wildcard: 5-pounders – they're normally nothing to write home about from Guntersville, but they're tough to find right now.

Some Really Smart Fish

The bass that inhabit Lake Guntersville have to be among the smartest in the world. By mid-summer, they've seen every type, style and color of lure more than once. There's almost no way to overemphasize the amount of fishing pressure the lake receives.

There are tournaments every day of the week and big ones (triple-digit boat counts) every weekend. Recreational anglers travel long distances to experience it. The bass simply never get a break.

A lot of people who are intimately familiar with the lake believe that all that pressure is the primary reason it's been in sort of a funk this year. The 4-plus-pounders were sparse on the ledges all summer, and the ones that were there were incredibly difficult to catch.

The lake is in superb condition – the grass is abundant and healthy and the water variables are right where they should be at this time of year. There's no doubt the big fish are still there, but they've become hard to locate and even more difficult to catch.

There are still plenty of catchable fish and limits of 2- to 3-pounders will be at least fairly common. There will be a premium on the 4- to 5-pound bite, though, and that's an unusual phenomenon for this place.

Might have to Start Over

Compounding matters, atmospheric conditions have changed dramatically since the practice period, which concluded Tuesday. A big storm front moved in that evening and hung around all day Wednesday, and anglers will encounter air temperatures that are 20 degrees colder (if not more) than when they were last on the water.

Overnight lows are predicted to dip into the 30s through Friday and that'll send water temperatures plummeting. The fish are likely to move deeper into the copious grass, where they'll have to be flipped out.

That could give the competitors who are most adept with the long rod an advantage, and the field is loaded with them.

Field Notes

Following are practice notes from some of the anglers who'll be competing this week.

Randall Tharp
"The lake is definitely off. I think you're going to see some 20-pound bags, but just a handful of them. There won't be 20 guys with them. I really think 15 pounds a day is going to be good for this tournament. The lake is perfect – the grass is phenomenal and everything's conducive to catching big bags, but it's not going to happen.

"I feel pretty good about the way it's setting up. I had several schools of fish found befre the cutoff and most of them are still there. I found one really good school (Tuesday) that I think I can do well on. My biggest problem is I know the lake so well that I have to avoid getting caught up in doing too much running around."

Jason Christie
"The only thing I figured out (during practice) is that if you make 5,000 flips in a day, you might get five keepers. I haven't found any concentrations of fish and the thing that worries me is I haven't caught any big ones at all.

"I didn't do anything but flip for 3 days and I'm going to live or die in the grass. I'm hoping the weather will help – maybe it'll bury them down a little bit and concentrate them a little more. I'll just keep moving around and hopefully I'll find a wad of them.

"I'm sure somebody's going to catch them, and I'll be curious to watch the TV show to find out how."

Mark Rose
"I wouldn't say the deep bite's been difficult – it's been nonexistent for me. I've heard a lot of talk recently about me being the ledge-master and I'm fixing to prove that I'm not.

"It's a tough bite. The water's starting to cool off a little bit, but it's still pretty warm. The shad are way up the water column and spread out through the whole lake. They're not locked down on the ledges like I'd like them to be.

"I grew up on the backwaters of the Mississippi River delta and I'm going to have to revert back to those days and get up on the bank and just try to survive. I know the times when I have a chance to do well on the Tennessee River and this isn't one of them."

Jim Moynagh
"It was a terrible practice for me and I'm really beside myself. What's funny was that (on Tuesday) it was warm and humid with an overcast sky, and I pulled up in a cove where bass were busting all over the place. I emptied my tackle box, but I could not for the life of me figure out how to catch them. It was crazy.

"I don't know what to do. This is my first trip in October and I tried quite a few of the ledge spots where I've caught them in the summer, but there's no bait there and no fish. I've got to come up with something and it's not very promising at this point, but you never know what can happen."

Top 10 To Watch

Following is BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch at this event. In no particular order, they are:

1. Greg Hackney – A shallow-water stud who no longer fishes FLW events on a regular basis, but has proven he's a major threat when he does (witness his 2009 Forrest Wood Cup triumph). His record at Guntersville is a mixed bag, but this is a different time of year.

2. Brent Ehrler – Few are better at adjusting to whatever conditions he's presented and figuring something out that works. He's coming off a bad outing (92nd) at Champlain, and two of those in a row isn't likely.

3. J.T. Kenney – He's someone who has to be considered whenever a flipping stick becomes the predominant weapon. If the fish are buried deep in the grass, he can pull them out with the best of them.

4. Marshall Deakins – You have to figure that at least one of the non-Tour guys will make it to the final day, and many like his chances. He's had great success in lower-level events at G'ville.

5. Steve Kennedy – He's always one to watch out for when conditions are a little bit off. He's become quite adept at enticing quality bites with a swimbait, and there are a lot of quality fish in the lake.

6. Aaron Martens – He might be the best in the game at hooking fish that don't really want to eat. The conditions seem to be ripe for him to prove that once again.

7. Chris Lane – The native Floridian lives at Guntersville now and fishes the lake all the time. He had a superb Elite Series season and there's no reason to think he's lost that momentum.

8. Randall Tharp – He has a vast amount of experience at this venue – not only fishing it , but winning on it. He undoubtedly knows of a few out-of-the-way areas that are holding quality fish.

9. Jay Yelas – Patience is always a good attribute in a tournament like this, and he's got plenty of it. If one above-average bite per day is all it takes, he'll be willing to wait for it.

10. David Dudley – He's been phenomenally consistent for well over a year now, having finished no worse than 42nd in his last 12 events. His flipping skills are top-notch.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Anglers will launch from Lake Guntersville State Park (7966 Hwy. 227 in Guntersville) at 7 a.m. CST each day. Thursday's and Friday’s weigh-ins will be held at the park beginning at 2:30 p.m. Saturday's and Sunday’s weigh-ins will be held at Walmart (11697 Hwy. 431 S. in Guntersville) beginning at 4 p.m.

Notable

> Jay Yelas caught his biggest fish of the practice period on the final day, but had an issue with numbers that day and said he'll be happy to weigh a limit on Thursday. To read his practice wrapup, click here.

Weather Forecast

> Thurs., Oct. 20 - A.M. Clouds/P.M. Sun - 60°/36°
- Wind: From the W at 18 mph

> Fri., Oct. 21 - Sunny - 64°/37°
- Wind: From the W/NW at 10 mph

> Sat., Oct. 22 - Sunny - 67°/40°
- Wind: From the N at 5 mph

> Sun., Oct. 23 - Partly Cloudy - 70°/47°
- Wind: From the W/NW at 5 mph