Scouting Report/Watch List
Clear Lake Could Be A Big-Bag Shootout Again – Or Not

Photo: ESPN Outdoors Steve Kennedy went hawg-wild over the final 3 days to win at Clear Lake in 2007, but conditions are different right now.

One of two scenarios is almost certain to play out. Either a bunch of fish will migrate to the shallows and the Elite anglers will clobber them with swimbaits like they did 3 years ago, or they'll continue to cruise around at depths of 6 feet or more and play hard to catch. Opinion on whether the former will happen is split – some say the fish are right on the verge of moving up for the spawn, while others think the still-cold nights will keep them out until sometime next week.

One thing is certain – they weren't easy to entice during the 3-day practice session that concluded this afternoon. Tales of woe, of course, must be taken with a grain of salt because nobody wants to divulge anything that's proven effective under the current conditions, but even some anglers who reported getting a fair of amount of bites lamented that they were scattered and unpredictable.

Even if it stays relatively tough, the Top 2 or 3 finishers will likely weigh bags that average somewhere around 20 pounds – there are just too many big fish here to prevent that from happening. But at the same time, much of the field will struggle, as it did last week at the California Delta.

Before delving further into the bite, here's the low-down on the lake itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Name: Clear Lake
> Type of Water: Natural lake
> Surface Acres: 43,000
> Primary structure/cover: Docks, rocks and tules
> Primary forage: Shad, Clear Lake hitch, crawdads
> Average depth: 30 feet
> Species: Largemouths
> Length limit: 12 inches
> Reputation: A big-fish factory that suffered a decline in the early 1990s, but has made a strong recovery. Huge population of 4- to 6-pound fish
> Weather: A mix of clouds and sun with daytime highs in the 70s, but cool nights in the high 30s to low 40s. A tad cooler for the weekend.
> Water temperature: Low to mid 50s
> Water color/visibility: Very clear in most places
> Water level: About a foot below full pool
> Fish in: 6 to 20 feet
> Fish phase: Pre-spawn
> Primary patterns: Swimbaits, dropshots, jigs, Senkos, maybe some sight-fishing
> Winning weight: 85 pounds (4 days)
> Cut weight (Top 12, 3 days): 48 pounds
> Check weight (Top 47, 2 days): 28 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 2 for Clear Lake, but that could change
> Biggest factor: Water temperature
> Biggest decisions: Which end of the lake to fish
> Wildcard: A big movement of fish toward the banks

Looking Backward

Steve Kennedy caught a "pedestrian" 20-pound bag here on day 1 in 2007, then averaged 34 pounds over the next 3 days to amass a then-record 122-14 total. Swimbaits ruled the week as the Top 7 all cleared the century mark.

That tournament took place a little bit later on the March calendar, though (it actually finished up in early April), and the lake was further along in its progression toward springtime. Lots of fish were on beds and many more were actively staking out reproductive locales.

It's a different deal this time as the overwhelming majority of the bass are still pre-spawn. The area got snow twice last week and water temperatures were knocked back into the high 40s. They're in the 50s again, but they're only reaching the upper end of that scale in the late afternoon – about the time the weigh-ins will occur.

Whether the transition to the spawn mode occurs remains to be seen. If it does, this could become a different derby overnight. Some think it will, but others have their doubts.

"No matter how warm it gets this week, I don't see (a big move the shallows) happening," said Shaw Grigsby. "It's definitely pre-spawn and for me, that's made it really tough."

Others are more optimistic.

"They're in a funk right now, but it's fixing to break," said Bradley Hallman. "I think it's going to bust loose. When we get to the scales, I expect to see (big bags)."

Congestion Possible

If the shallow-water migration doesn't happen and the tournament plays out as a traditional pre-spawn event, there's a possibility that a lot of anglers could congregate in relatively few places. The shallower north end warms up faster and there was a hot bite in there a couple of weeks ago, but it went away when the weather cooled off.

If there is a mass movement, that'll bring another phenomenon into play. The lake has risen 6 feet since December and a lot of the shallowest areas that the fish will use will be very difficult for anglers to access.

"We were 6 feet (from full pool) in December, but now we're only about a foot down – we've had a lot of rain," said Dave Brobec at Clear Lake Outdoors. "When those fish move up, a lot of them will be under laydown tules and things like that.

Photo: ESPN Outdoors Jeff Kriet has been fishing well just about everywhere for the better part of a year, and his finesse tactics might play well this week.

Northern California native Mark Tyler said the lake is higher than he's seen it in probably a decade.

"I'd say it's at least 2 feet higher than last time we were here, and 2 feet is a lot on this flat lake," he said. "I like it higher, that's usually when I've done my best here, but the amazing thing is how clear it is. That's going to make things interesting.

"But this is Clear Lake and good things are going to happen for somebody."

Field Notes

Following are practice notes from some anglers who'll be fishing this week.

Steve Kennedy
"I really think they're coming and I practiced like they are, but they're not there yet. I've got a couple of places I've been checking every day and when I got to one at 2:20 (Wednesday), there were some there in a place they hadn't been before.

"But they're still so cold – we've had slick, calm days with bright sun, which is good for getting them to come up, but it's painful trying to get them to bite. I've had one bite in the last 2 days.

"I kept telling myself that I'm going to practice where they're going to, not where they're leaving, and if you want to win that's what you have to do. I've stayed with the (swimbait) and I've had some good follows, but getting one to eat it is pretty hard."

Mark Tyler
"I'm hoping this is a calm-before-the-storm type of thing. I've been getting a fair amount of bites – catching them hasn't been that big of a problem – but I haven't figured out how to catch the big ones. I'm far from having anything really dialed in right now.

"Each day we're seeing the water temperature tick up a degree or to, and that's a good thing. I just haven't found a pattern to run for the quality fish – I've been catching mostly males."

James Niggemeyer
"It's been slow for me and I'm a little disappointed in what I've found so far. I can say that I've been eliminating quite a bit of water.

"With this cold water, they just don't seem to be aggressive. I wouldn't call it a winter deal, but it's like they're just breaking out of that. This warm-weather trend is supposed to stay with us, so maybe it'll break loose.

"I love the natural beauty of this lake, but I've had more success at the Delta than I've had here. I'm looking forward to trying to solve the puzzle once again."

Mark Menendez
"The lake's way behind where it was when we were here in '07. It needs 5 or 6 good, warm days and nights in a row and it doesn't look like we're going to get that. We need a couple of nights where it stays in the 50s.

"We're going to see some good weights – a lot of 15- to 18-pound bags – but it's not going to be like it was last time. It'll be a grinder and I'm going to have to fish very clean, unlike what I did last week. I'm going to need to make the most of every opportunity."

Bradley Hallman
"I've seen a few fish, but seeing them and catching them are two different deals. They're up cruising, but they're not wanting to do anything.

"I threw a swimbait for the first 2 days and had one bite, but I think by Sunday, that'll be the deal. I think they're going to go to the bank and we're all going to meet there and catch them on swimbaits."

Jami Fralick
"I'm not catching a lot, but I think it's going to get good. It won't be as good as last time, but I think it'll probably take 16 to 18 pounds a day to make the Top 47.

"I've fished a little bit of everything and the size doesn't seem to be as good. Before there were a lot of 4-pounders, but now most of those fish are 3 or 3 1/4. They're the same length, but they're skinnier."

Photo: ESPN Outdoors/Seigo Saito Mark Menendez is among the anglers who don't think Clear Lake will warm up enough this week to bring a bunch of spawn-minded fish to the banks.

"It'd be hard to duplicate 2007, but this lake's full of big fish and somebody's going to catch them."

Shaw Grigsby
"I haven't been doing much at all. I might get lucky and be able to catch five, but I might not.

"The sad thing is the water's the cleanest I've seen it – it's really nice. I always feel confident that if I can see a fish, I've got a good opportunity to catch it, but they seem to be a little too deep for that."

Top 10 to Watch

Based on the above information and more, here, in no particular order, are BassFan's recommendations for the Top 10 to watch in this event.

1. Kevin VanDam – His 29th-place finish at the Delta last week was his worst since a 45th at Wheeler last April, and he won the event after that. Always a huge threat, but even more so when he's coming off a disappointing outing.

2. Skeet Reese – He's competed here many, many times over the past quarter-century and has had a lot of success, including three 2nds in BASS competition. Badly wants to win here for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is to salve last week's 1-ounce heartbreaker.

3. Jeff Kriet – He's been on a great run over the last 10 months and conditions this week just might suit his finesse skills. His more-positive frame of mind is producing results wherever he goes.

4. Kelly Jordon – He's a man to be reckoned with wherever big fish swim, and they definitely reside here. He's due for a good finish after a couple of mediocre performances thus far in 2010.

5. Alton Jones – He won here in 2003 under adverse conditions, so he knows he can do it. He's been overshadowed by other anglers over the past year, but his record over that stretch is rock-solid.

6. Greg Hackney – The reigning Forrest Wood Cup champion came within a single keeper of winning at the Delta. If not for his Classic stinker, you'd have to say he's fishing as well as anyone on either tour right now, and he loves to catch pigs.

7. Mark Tyler – Has cashed just one check in his last nine Elite outings and could really use a good finish to get some momentum flowing in the right direction. He knows this lake well, and this could be the week.

Photo: ESPN Outdoors/Gary Tramontina Kelly Jordon is a threat to win whenever the Elite Series visits a big-fish factory.

9. Steve Kennedy – He probably can't duplicate what he did here 3 years ago, but he's far from a one-trick pony. Even if the fish stay away from the banks, he's still dangerous.

10. Aaron Martens – Turned in a disappointing defense of his '07 title at the Delta, but this tournament actually seems to set up better for him. If the dropshot's a factor all week, he should be right there.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Anglers will launch at 7 a.m. each day from Library Park (3rd and 5th Streets in Lakeport). Weigh-ins will commence at 3:30 p.m. each day at the same location.

Weather Forecast

Here's the weather forecast for the tournament days.

> Thurs., March 18 - Sunny - 73°/40°
- Wind: From the N/NW at 8 mph

> Fri., March 19 - Sunny - 74°/39°
- Wind: From the N/NW at 4 mph

> Sat., March 20 - Partly Cloudy - 71°/41°
- Wind: From the N at 3 mph

> Sun., March 21 - Mostly Cloudy - 67°/41°
- Wind: From the S at 2 mph

Notable

> BassFan Big Stick John Murray caught some quality fish in practice, including a 10-pound hawg, but he said that compiling a limit on the competition days could be tough if conditions don't change. To read his practice report, click here.