Pros Ponder Big Question: Run South Or Stay Put?

The rarest of rare circumstances occurred last Saturday, when the final day of the Kentucky Lake Bassmaster Elite Series marked the first day of practice for the Kentucky Lake FLW Tour.

Granted, just 12 anglers were left on that final day of the Elite Series, but FLW Tour pros still got a solid look at what it'll take to win this week at the venue.

In summary, Bobby Lane won with a 20-fish, 97-09 total. He milked a single ledge in the south end of Kentucky Lake for most of that total, but had to scramble a little the final day when the wind and current pulled a no-show. His winning baits included a swimbait, jig and 10" worm.

Second-place Kevin VanDam, who won the event the year before, runned and gunned ledges with a crankbait and spoon and ended with a 92-01 total. He fished a bit deeper than expected.

And the rest of the Top 5 all worked ledges with a mix of cranks, worms and jigs. The good ledges all seemed to have a strong base of mussel shell with grass an added bonus, and all the top finishers fished south.

Trouble is, the FLW Tour field launches on the very north end of Kentucky Lake – about 60 miles from where the Elite Series launched. And Kentucky Lake's big water, especially with any significant north wind. Severe thunderstorms are in the works as a cold front moves through that'll deliver north winds, all of which means any run south is a big-time gamble (even though the north winds are predicted to be light).

Another big difference between the two events: The water was about a foot high when the Elites practiced, and the TVA flushed the lake during competition, which created a ton of current. The lake's been slack since then, though, so the FLW Tour field may not get much current, and might have a flat surface to deal with if the winds stay down.

Note too that Kentucky Lake's an absolute mob-scene right now. Seems everyone from a 200-mile radius has descended upon the lake and the ledges are getting beat to a pulp. A lot of pros are worried about getting on any of their practice spots tomorrow.

Before more about the event, here's more about the venue itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake Name: Kentucky and Barkley lakes
> Type of Water: Flood-control reservoirs
> Surface Acres (full pool): Kentucky = 160,000; Barkley = 80,000
> Primary structure/cover: Shallow – flooded buckbrush, vegetation, willows; Offshore – ledges and humps
> Primary forage: Shad, some crawfish and bluegill
> Average depth: Kentucky = 15 feet; Barkley = 8 feet
> Species: Largemouths (mostly), smallmouths (some jumbos), spotted bass (not usually a major factor)
> Minimum length: 12" for spots, 15" for largemouths, 18" for smallmouths
> Reputation: Big lake with lots of fish that can be caught many ways
> Weather: Hot and summery with chance of strong scattered thunderstorms the next several days
> Water temperature: High 70s to low 80s
> Water visibility/color: Tinted to stained in some places, virtually gin-clear in others
> Water level: Full summer pool
> Fish in: 1 to 25 feet
> Fish phase: Summer and post-spawn
> Primary patterns: Crankbaits, Carolina-rigs, football-head jigs, jig-stroking, worms (particularly large ones), flipping
> Winning weight: 82 pounds
> Cut weight (Top 10): 48 pounds
> Check weight (50th): 30 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 3 for Kentucky/Barkley
> Biggest factors: Timing – hit it right and the bigger fish will bite
> Biggest decision: To run south or stay north.
> Wildcard: Current – it drives the ledge bite, but has been slack and can typically pull a disappearing act on weekends

The South

There's a general consensus that the event will definitely be won on the south end of Kentucky Lake. That's where the grass has taken hold, and there just isn't the concentration of fish in the north end compete.

A few pros will likely make the cut up north, but a 25-pound bag is a very slim possibility there.

The Rotation

Although there's every possibility someone might find a magic hole like Lane did, it's much more likely that the event will be won by a rotation.

The fish in Kentucky Lake feed sporadically, and it's usually linked to current. The trick is to determine the most likely feeding times in various spots, then rotate through them to capitalize.

Problems come up when a pro gets into a bad rotation, which can happen if he or she guesses wrong on when to fish a spot, or can't get on a spot during a feeding time because of other boats.

Savvy anglers can typically figure the rotation out and stay one step ahead of the field. Check-seekers, on the other hand, tend to play things more safely and stick with numbers areas.

Ones To Watch

There are quite a few storylines to follow at this event – from the Angler of the Year (AOY) race to Brent Ehrler's grip on the No. 2 spot in the BassFan World Rankings to Forrest Wood Cup qualification to fantasy fishing.

The three most recent FLW Tour events at Kentucky Lake (2006, 2004, 2003) don't provide suitable reference, since each of those events was held in early to mid-May. Fish were considerably shallower and had yet to truly set up in their summer patterns.

Last year's Ft. Loudoun-Tellico event is perhaps a more suitable reference point. It too was a Tennessee River event in mid-June. David Dudley won that one up the river from a magic spot – much like Lane did here last week. And that event proved that savvy counts for about everything when it comes to summer on the Tennessee River.

Overall, look primarily for veterans and western pros, and at least one local (perhaps Terry Bolton, Dan Morehead or David "Scotty" Young) to make the Top 10.

Bolton finished 2nd here in 2006 on a dead-fish penalty, but he reported a lackluster practice and won't make the trip south. Morehead hasn't wowed the venue on the Tour, but that's likely been because the Tour hasn't visited during a summer pattern, and stable, grouped-up summer fish tend to help locals. He'll make the big run, he said. And don't forget Young, who's a veritable "Mr. Kentucky Lake" (three BFL wins, one Stren win and what seems like countless Top 10s).

Notes From The Field

Here's what Morehead, Bolton and Anthony Gagliardi (who won here in 2006) had to say about their practices.

Dan Morehead

"My practice was good. I fished 12 hours a day for 4 days in a row. We're not going to catch the big weights the BASS guys did – they hit it absolutely perfect. They didn't have that long run either, and we have to weigh in at 2:30. I can tell you that in the past week to 10 days this lake has been beat into submission. Everybody in a four-state area who owns a boat is on Kentucky Lake right now.

"I'm going to run south. You can't compete on the north end anymore. I know a couple of BASS guys did well up (north). It's not there there's no fish there – it's the pressure. You can't leap-frog around and make a milk run. If you're lucky and have an early boat number, so be it, but you can't count on bouncing around. All the stuff we used to fish – little bitty stuff you'd never see a boat on – it's getting fished as hard as anything right now.

"On top of that we have a full moon and the fish are biting better later, they're not pulling much current at all, and if they (pulling), it's later."

Terry Bolton

"I'm afraid I'm kind of caught with my pants down on this one, and I think I'm going to regret it. I've been gone for about a year and a half and things are really changing – especially on the (south) end of the lake. It seems like a lot of places you used to have to yourself have kind of become community holes.

"I was really hoping to find a new group of bass up north but I wasn't able to do that this week. And I never went past Paris Landing, so I'm regretting that. I should have spent my practice days down there and tried to find something. But I will make this statement: No matter what happens this week, I'll be down there from now on. I've seen the light."

Anthony Gagliardi

"I'm not quite sure what my plan is. My practice hasn't been that good. I've caught a ton of fish, but I'm not catching the quality like I know I need.

"I'm not sure if I'll make the run (south). There's a question of whether you can get on a place you want to fish. I'm probably going to start heading up the river and then stop at the first place I come to that doesn't have a boat. You hate to pass something up to run farther because somebody might be on what you have.

"There are a lot of people out there fishing right now. It's amazing. I've never seen anything like it. Right now, I'm honestly just thinking about how I'm going to catch a keeper."

Ones To Watch

With the above in mind and more, here's BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 pros to watch/pick at this event. In no particular order, they are:

1. David "Scotty" Young – Knows the lake better than anyone in the field and is a Kentucky Lake stud. A strong pick to win it all.

2. David Dudley – Won at Ft. Loudoun–Tellico last year with a deep crank and loves his newfound skill with the technique. Could make a savvy move like VanDam and work deeper water off the ledges for less pressured fish. A strong pick.

3. Dan Morehead – Another Kentucky Lake expert, Morehead's been waiting for a June event here for a long time. Plans to make the run south and certainly has good fish located, but faces a short fishing day.

4. Brent Ehrler – Equally good shallow or deep, and the hottest pro on the Tour bar none. He's ranked No. 2 in the world and leads the AOY race.

5. Scott Suggs – Made a commitment to deep water at Beaver and it nearly paid off with spot in the cut. This is his kind of fishery.

6. Andy Morgan – Morgan's pretty much a pick at every Tour stop, but especially ones that involve the Tennessee River. Finished 13th and 6th at two previous Tour stops here.

7. Ramie Colson, Jr. – A deep-water jig specialist who finished 4th and 10th in his last two Tennessee River Tour appearances. Plus, he finished 14th here in 2006. Strong.

8. David Fritts – Post-spawn and summer fish, ledges, cranks. Why say more? Sets up perfectly for the best cranker in the history of the sport.

9. Shinichi Fukae – Has fished steadily this year and can often do serious damage in deep water. With all the pressure, look for finesse techniques to play a larger role this week than expected.

10. Luke Clausen – Fishing very well and has been one bite away from the cut several times this season. He's due.

Launch/Weigh-in Info

Anglers take off at 6:30 a.m. Thursday and Friday from the Kentucky Dam Marina located at 466 Marina Dr. in Gilbertsville, Ky. The Thursday and Friday weigh-ins will also be held at the Kentucky Dam Marina beginning at 2:30 p.m. The Saturday and Sunday weigh-ins will be held at the Regional Special Events Center at Murray State University located at 1401 State Route 121 North in Murray, Ky., beginning at 4 p.m.

Weather Forecast

Here's the weather forecast for the tournament.

> Thurs., June 11 - Scattered Strong Storms - 83°/66°
- Wind: From the SW at 13 mph

> Fri., June 12 - Scattered T-Storm - 82°/67°
- Wind: From the N/NE at 8 mph

> Sat., June 13 - Partly Cloudy - 84°/69°
- Wind: From the NE at 5 mph

> Sun., June 14 - Scattered T-Storms - 84°/70°
- Wind: From the E at 7 mph

Notable

> FLW Outdoors announced that this event marks the beginning of new reporting on Tour events by the league with on-the-water updates and blogs.

> Jay Yelas is "disgusted" with his practice. To find out why, click here to go On Tour With the BassFan Big Sticks.

> There's some confusion about what the length limit for smallmouths will be, and pros expect a clarification at tonight's tournament meeting. The minimum length for smallies has traditionally been 15 inches, but the Tennessee portion of Lake Barkley has an 18-inch minimum on brown fish.