Cup Scouting Report/Watch List
Many Qs Remain As Cup Pros Sit Through Rain

Photo: BassFan David Dudley says he approaches championships differently, and will make a decision tomorrow morning about where and how to fish.

The pros practiced for 4 solid days in stable, hot weather. The water temperature approached 90 degrees in the afternoon, and by all accounts, it would be a typically tough, somewhat random summer dog-day event.

But a massive cold front hammered through the area last night and today, delivering substantial rains and temperatures about 20 degrees lower than normal.

As it clears, it'll leave classic high-pressure, bluebird conditions for the 4 days of competition. That's tough enough, because post-cold-front bass as a rule are difficult to catch.

Where the nail biting starts, though, is with the rain. Full rainfall reports are not yet in, but forecasts called for up to 3 inches. Because scattered thunderstorms can drop rain in a small area, certain creeks or entire arms could be muddy. And the water level could rise substantially throughout the reservoir as the watershed drains the rain.

Why the nail-biting? Because pros might not know until tomorrow morning whether their best practice areas are still fishable. And those who practiced deep might face a shallow flipping and spinnerbait bite that wasn't there a few days ago.

It all makes for a fascinating setup for this year's championship. Before more about the bite itself, and the factors that will affect this year's event, here's the details on Lake Murray itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake name: Murray
> Type of water: A deep, old, Saluda River impoundment that's clearer than average
> Surface acres: 50,000-plus
> Primary structure/cover: Stumps, clay banks, flats, ledges, brushpiles, docks
> Primary forage: Blueback herring and threadfin shad
> Average depth: Not available
> Species: Largemouths only
> Minimum length: 12 inches
> Reputation: A sometimes-overlooked lake that's up there with the best in the Southeast. A heavy average with some 8-pound-plus brutes, but can be feast-or-famine in summer especially
> Weather: Currently the area is in the midst of a cold front. That'll give way to clearing by early tomorrow afternoon.
> Water temp: High-80s to low-90s
> Water visibility/color: Varies from quite clear to quite stained, depending upon location
> Water level: Normal summer pool, but could rise
> Fish in: 1 to 35 feet
> Fish phase: summer
> Primary patterns: Jigs, shallow cranks, plastics, heavy metal, tubes, soft jerkbaits, possibly spinnerbaits
> Winning weight: 23 pounds (final 2 days)
> Cut weight (Top 10): 23 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 2 for Murray
> Biggest factors: Weather – will rain stain or raise the lake
> Biggest decision: Deep or shallow?
> Wildcard: An incidental huge bite (or two)

The Shallow Scene

By far the biggest question this week has been whether to fish shallow or deep. That's usually the biggest question for any event in the dog days of summer.

What makes the decision at Murray extra difficult is the lake's forage base. The lake used to be full of grass, and the bass focused on traditional, predictable forage.

Murray lays out like a classic Southeastern reservoir, with a narrow river at the top, countless creeks, and a deep, expansive basin near the dam.

BassFans have followed several blueback events the past several years – namely at Clarks Hill, Hartwell and Murray. But those events were in the cold-weather months, when bluebacks and bass were shallow or on main-lake points. In August, the biggest fish in the system seem to be pelagic – they're out suspended in the main lake.

But a few fish, as always, are shallow. There's a bluegill spawn up shallow that's tapering off. There's resident shallow fish. And there's schooling fish that feed shallow at unpredictable times.

Ron Shuffield's one pro who's committed to fishing shallow with power techniques.

"It's been a really, really tough practice," he said. "I don't have much of a pattern going or anything. I can't really replicate what I'm doing. I just put the trolling motor down, throw all day, and maybe I'm lucky enough to catch five.

"It's really hard to catch numbers, and even harder to catch size," Shuffield added. "I don't think it'll take more than 11 to 12 pounds a day to make the cut."

Bryan Thrift is also committed to fishing shallow. He did that last year at the Ouachita Cup (an event that was won deep) and finished 5th. "I like it best when I can run 70 different places and make two or three casts," he said. So normally, this type of bite would suit him. But like Shuffield, he's struggled.

"My practice was bad until (yesterday)," Thrift said. "I finally had a decent day. I did the same thing I'd been doing, so I don't know if I just ran into them, or they finally started biting with this front coming through."

Former Cup (FLW Championship) winner Luke Clausen practiced far and wide across the lake, but mostly stayed shallow. And that's where he plans to spend the event, even though he thinks it'll probably be won deep.

"There are a lot of reports about guys seeing big fish shallow, but I can't get them to bite," Clausen said. "There are still a lot of bluegills up, but they're starting to fade. I'm surprised there weren't more fish around them. The bluegills are why I committed myself to fishing shallow, but apparently with bluebacks, the (bass) don't stay around."

The Deep Scene

Fish are reportedly suspended in the main lake. They're not oriented to bottom, or to structure. Instead, they're entirely related to the suspended blueback schools.

Some are suspended down deep at 30-plus feet, others just a few feet below the surface. Some occasionally school.

The deep anglers therefore face a couple of challenges. One is finding active fish, since the neutrals are so difficult to trigger. The other is precision depth control for suspenders.

David Fritts is one of the pros who plans to stay deep. He's probably the best cranker in the field, but his biggest problem, he said, is that the fish aren't on bottom, which makes cranking tough.

Photo: BassFan Years ago, this event might have set up perfectly for David Fritts, but he's struggling this week.

"If it rains a lot that'll really hurt me," he added. "I look for 12 pounds a day to make the cut, but if it rains 3 inches, it could take a lot more. If the water comes up, it's only going to drive more fish shallow."

Switch-Hitters

Then there are those pros who practiced deep, shallow and in-between, and with the changing conditions, they could be at an advantage right now. They can blast off tomorrow and make a decision on which way to go.

Alvin Shaw said he practiced three different ways – shallow, deep, and flipping up the river.

"I'll wait and see what it looks like Thursday morning and just go with my instincts from there," Shaw said. "It's hard to duplicate anything right now – you can't go back on anything, really, because the fish just leave. Either shallow or deep, they're roaming all the time."

Also notable about Shaw is he comes to Murray off a recent win at the season-ending Detroit River FLW Tour. "I was hoping to bring that momentum with me, for sure," he said. "I'm going to try to grasp some of that when the time comes. When you're out on the water and it's tough, I want to get focused and determined like I was at that win."

David Dudley, who won the Cup (FLW Championship) in 2003, and who's also the reigning FLW Tour Angler of the Year, is another who'll go with his gut feeling tomorrow morning.

Dudley also won the Ranger M1 championship, which at the time was the highest-paying event in the sport ($700,000). More street-cred: He won this year's Ft. Loudoun-Tellico FLW Tour.

There's a reason he excels in big-purse events – he fishes them differently than points events.

"I know some areas where I can go catch fish, but in this tournament, that doesn't make for a hill of beans," Dudley said. "I know how I can catch five and probably come in with a limit both days, but I'd have to get real lucky for 2 days in a row to get the quality bites I need to win. And I know that way isn't going to win a million dollars.

"Championships are a little different," Dudley added. "You look at them differently. I can't talk much right now, because no matter what I say, it's going to be a tall tale. I'm going to make a decision tomorrow morning (based on the rain), because the winner won't be the person who found a lot of fish in practice. It'll be the person who goes out there that day and, as Mike Iaconelli says, fishes the moment.

"I have a very open mind until I see what unfolds."

Photo: BassFan Bryan Thrift plans to run-and-gun shallow, which is his favorite style.

Some additional angles concerning the fishery and the conditions.

Big Fish
Murray's got a ton of quality fish. It took more than 17 pounds a day to make the cut in spring 2006, and several pros weighed 25-plus-pound bags. Those fish are still in here, but no one seems able to tell whether they school by size. Call it luck, call it fortune, but two 5-pounders might be enough to make the cut.

The River
The river is where a lot of the power-fishermen spent their time. But it's the area that'll probably be most affected by rain. Too much rain could be bad, but just the right amount could be gold. Then again, if the gates open, the river could be good for 2 days, then dead for the finals.

Veterans
It just stands to reason that veterans have seen more of these varying conditions over the years, and would thus have an inside slant on what to do tomorrow. At the same time, some veterans (Fritts, Shuffield and George Cochran come to mind) get entirely locked in on their comfort zone and have difficulty adapting.

Local Traffic
Local fans have cost many pros a championship. Some pros anticipate that, and search out bites that'll hold up through a spectator armada. Traditionally, deep bites are better insulated from spectators than shallow bites. And shallow topwater bites can be the most precarious of all.

Swimbaits
Call them the X-factor. They're fun to throw, and exciting, but they get a lot of follows. Only a handful of pros have a grasp of how to convert follows into bites, but big baits could do serious damage on the main lake, especially nearer the dam.

The Cut
Only the Top 10 pros advance to fish day 3, when they all start over gain with zero weight. Normally, pros try to save fish for after the cut, but given the nomadic nature of Murray bass, each pro BassFan spoke with seems committed to catching all he can the first 2 days, even if it means culling up ounces at a time.

Top 10 To Watch

With so many variable in play, and the field at rest today, it makes it especially difficult to compile a watch list. BassFans who play fantasy fishing, for example, might want to stack a few shallow-water specialists on their team, as well as a few deep-only pros. Or, maybe take an all-out gamble and go either pure shallow or pure deep.

Below is BassFan's recommendation for the Top 10 to watch at this Forrest Wood Cup.

1. Anthony Gagliardi – Lives on the lake. Last year, Scott Suggs won the Cup as a local and showed that the local advantage can be a huge factor. There hasn't been enough rain yet to destroy Gags' practice. He won Murray 2 years ago, and is definitely one to watch.

2. David Dudley – Spent time driving the lake in his truck and looking at creeks today to get a bead on where and how he wants to fish. Crafty, focused and determined – he's a top pick at any Cup. And he's the highest-ranked angler in the field – he's currently 4th in the BassFan World Rankings.

3. David Curtis – Perhaps the most dangerous angler to qualify through the Stren Series. Remember the Stren Championship, when he was one of the few who figured out how to get gas? He's sort of like Dudley in that regard – he can outthink the field. A darkhorse pick, but a good one.

4. George Cochran – Hasn't been fishing well lately, but he can make magic out of shallow water in the most dismal circumstances. Look for him to be up the river, or maybe crashing stained creeks at mid-lake. Has the chops to win the big money – he did it at Hamilton in 2005, and he's won two Classics.

5. Jay Yelas – Another mega-hitter, a Cup is the last of the four major titles that still eludes him. Feels like he can catch 11 to 12 pounds a day up shallow.

6. Bryan Thrift – One of the best junk-fishermen in the field. Everything looks like a repeat of Lake Ouachita, and watch for him to run the bank and sack at least one good fish each day.

7. Mark Rose – One pro who doesn't get nearly the attention he deserves. What's attractive about Rose is that he's a river and oxbow rat. In other words, he understands how fish react to changing water conditions. Has yet to break out in a championship. Could be his year.

8. Brett Hite – One of the better deep-water fishermen in the field. Think the fish are tough to catch in South Carolina in August? Try fishing at this time of year in his hometown – Phoenix, Ariz.

9. Clark Wendlandt – Wendlandt's stats are simply mind-blowing. In the nine Cups he's fished, he's finished inside the Top 10 six times. He's finished 3rd in the last two Cups, and there's no reason to think he won't match that here.

10. Dion Hibdon – A former Cup champion (2000) and Classic champion (1997), he's an Ozark pro though-and-through, which means he can switch from shallow to deep in a heartbeat, and is equally comfortable with a broomstick or buggy whip.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Forrest Wood Cup contenders will launch at 7 a.m. each morning from the Lake Murray Marina and Yacht Club (1600 Marina Rd., Irmo, S.C.).

Weigh-ins being daily at 5 p.m. at the Colonial Center (801 Lincoln St., Columbia, S.C.).

The Family Fun Zone and Outdoors Show, also at the Colonial Center, opens at 2 p.m. Thursday and Friday, and 11 a.m. Saturday and Sunday.

The first 500 children visiting the Family Fun Zone and Outdoor Show on Thursday (Aug. 14) will receive free Berkley fishing line. The first 500 children visiting the show Friday will receive a free tackle kit. The first 750 children through the doors Saturday will receive a free pair of Solar Bat sunglasses, and the first 1,500 children visiting the show Sunday will receive a free rod and reel.

One lucky fan over 16 attending the final weigh-in Sunday will win a new Ranger Z-Comanche bass boat powered by Yamaha.

The Best Damn Sports Show Period will tape a show Saturday from noon to 2 p.m. in the Colonial Center, and country music fans will be treated to a free Tracy Byrd concert at the Colonial Center on Sunday at 4 p.m.

Admission to all activities is free. Participants in the Ranger boat drawing must be present during the Sunday weigh-in at 5 p.m. to win.

Weather Forecast

As noted, a passing cold front will give way to high-pressure conditions.

> Thurs, August 14 – Isolated T-Storms, Then Sun – 86°/67°
- Wind: From the S/SE at 5 mph

> Fri, August 15 – Mostly Sunny – 92°/69°
- Wind: From the W/SW at 5 mph

> Sat, August 16 – Partly Cloudy – 91°/70°
- Wind: From the E/NE at 4 mph

> Sun, August 17 – Partly Cloudy – 90°/70°
- Wind: From the E/SE at 3 mph

Notable

> BassFan Big Stick Jay Yelas is committed to fishing shallow and thinks it'll be a close contest. For his full practice report, click here to go On Tour With the BassFan Big Sticks.

> Fritts noted that even Buggs Island is starting to fish like a blueback lake. "I know that lake like the back of my hand, and the fish there are so addicted to herring that they're no longer on the structure I always caught them," he said.