Erie/Niagara Scouting Report
Fish Seem Dispersed, West Wind Looms

Photo: BassFan Gary Klein spent a week here last year learning the water, and was "satisfied" with his half-day Dunkirk practice yesterday.

The Erie/Niagara Bassmaster Elite Series begins tomorrow out of Buffalo, N.Y., and throughout practice this week the pros have noted the big fish seem more difficult to pinpoint. The fish are more scattered than last year, they agreed.

But before more about that and the current state of the bite, plus notes from the field, here's more about the waterbody itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake Name: Erie/Niagara River
> Type of Water: Great Lake
> Surface Acres (full pool): Not available, but more than anyone could fish in a lifetime.
> Primary structure/cover: Humps, rockpiles, reefs, river current, breakwalls, channel edges (near the harbor), grass (river and harbor), bridge pilings (river), a few wrecks
> Primary forage: Emerald shiners, rainbow smelt, gobies, crawfish, gizzard shad, ciscoes
> Average depth: 40 feet (about 15 feet in the river)
> Species: Smallmouths and largemouths (smallmouths dominate)
> Minimum length: 12" for all species
> Reputation: Arguably the world's best smallmouth fishery for both numbers and size
> Weather: Has been changing. Monday was warm and windy, Tuesday was hot, sunny and still, Wednesday was cloudy and breezy. The bad news is that the south winds will switch to the west tomorrow and Friday under high pressure, with waves from 2 to 4 feet.
> Water temp: 75 to 77 degrees, warmer in the shallows
> Water visibility/color: Varies greatly with winds and proximity to shore. Still-water clarity is up to 15 feet, but diminishes in winds to 5 to 8 feet or 1 foot in the shallows.
> Water level: Normal
> Fish in: All depths up to 50 feet, some suspended over even deeper water
> Fish phase: Some post-spawn, mostly summer
> Primary patterns: Tubes, dropshots (minnows, gobies, worms, reapers, Senkos), some early topwater, jigs, swimbaits
> Winning weight: 79 pounds (4 days)
> Cut weight (Top 12 after 3 days): 56 pounds
> Check weight: (Top 50 after 2 days): 29 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 3 for Erie in summer
> Biggest factors: Weather and that dreaded west wind
> Biggest decision: Whether to run or fish close
> Wildcard: The long run – some may run as far as 50 miles to unmolested fish. Also Canada – is it untapped?

Factor 1: The Weather

It can't be overstated: Weather's the single most important factor when fishing Erie. It dictates where and how you can fish, and seems to change every day. And remember too that BASS canceled day 2 of the event here last year due to wind.

The forecast calls for winds out of the west up to 15 mph, but that could change quickly, and there's talk of winds to 20 or 25 tomorrow out of the west.

A west wind is the worst for the lake, since it blows across the entire length.

Any way you slice it, the first couple of days could he hairy. Last year, Edwin Evers won with a long run to Dunkirk, and three of the other Top 5 finishers were there (or even as far as Barcelona). But significant wind could put Dunkirk out of reach.

Factor 2: Canada

For as long as anyone can remember, New York's bass season didn't open until the third Saturday in June. And Canada's opened a little later.

About a decade ago, New York opened Lake Erie to an early trophy season. That's when the nation started to hear about the stellar fishing. Then last year, New York opened Lake Erie and most of its waters to year-round catch-and-release only bass fishing.

Canada, however, wanted no part of it. So the northern Canadian shore of Lake Erie has some of the lightest bass pressure of any waters bordering the U.S.

Pros largely ignored Canada last year because an outdated fishing regulation limited pros to one cull only. The regulation was since trashed, and Canada's open for culling this year.

There's a lot of virgin water along that shore, and a lot of the pros dedicated at least a day of practice to the area.

Factor 3: The River

The Niagara River, which connects Lakes Erie and Ontario, is a powerful beast that harbors excellent smallmouths.

BASS has stated that it wants to avoid restricting anglers to the river – this event's all about the lake. That's why it cancelled the day outright last year, rather than restrict fishing to the river. It would likely do the same thing again this year, unless it appeared 2 straight days might be cancelled. In that case, it's likely that BASS would put the field in the river.

Few anglers practiced there, so it would mean nearly everybody would start from ground zero. Interesting.

Factor 4: The Long Run

Along with the Canadian shoreline mentioned above, the south shore of Erie offers a killer bite all the way down to the state line. On flat water, Dunkirk and Barcelona are an easy half-hour run. But in waves, the run turns treacherous.

It's especially a gamble if west winds build and organize the waves through the afternoon.

There's every risk an angler won't get back. But the lure of lightly fished reefs and humps, and the knowledge that the event was won at Dunkirk last year, should mean that a sizable portion of the field will make the run.

Photo: BassFan Paul Hirosky hasn't found the concentrations of fish he found last year.

This is the second-to-last event of the season, so points are a huge factor. First is the race for the Angler of the Year (AOY) title led by Kevin VanDam, who's followed closely by Todd Faircloth.

Also remember that some of the Bassmaster Majors money was pumped into the AOY race after the Majors were cancelled, so anglers who move up can realize significant monetary gain.

Then there's Bassmaster Classic qualification. The Top 36 in the points are guaranteed a spot.

Lastly there's Elite Series requalification. The Top 84 are guaranteed a tour card, and since there's no Wildcard Qualifier this year, the next two events will determine the long-term fate of several pros.

Local Thoughts

Tim Braun, a well-known Buffalo guide (BraunsOutdoors.com) who's fishing the event as a co-angler, agrees with the assessment that the fish are more scattered than normal.

He's not sure why, but a very late spawn this year could be a contributor.

"I caught a couple big ones the other day and their tails were just healing up and their bellies still had sores," he said. "That's telling me a lot of these fish spawned late. I'm hoping that later in August it'll be just like last year was in July. We had a horrible May weather-wise this year.

"So you're picking up one here and one there," he added. "But if you sit on a spot, there's no doubt you can catch a big sack. (The pros) sometimes leave too quickly. When you get on a spot and you're catching 2 1/2s for 15 or 20 minutes, a lot of these guys will leave. But if you keep picking around, the big fish are there."

About Canada, he noted: "I saw quite a few guys on the Canadian shoreline. When you get past Point Abino, a lot of that area's untapped. People fish it, but it's nothing like here. If it's feasible to run that far, I could see the winning bags coming from there."

Field Notes

Following are some practice notes from the pro field:

Greg Hackney

"It's so-so. The fishing's good, but to me, it's not near as good as last year. But this place has so many quality fish that weight-wise, it might be similar (to last year). You just don't catch them in the numbers we did last year. For me personally, they don't seem to be bunched up quite as well as last year and the big fish seem to be more solitary.

"I didn't run last year. I did spend one day quite a way's away in practice, but chances are I'll stay in the Buffalo area like I did last year. If you get down there, and come back and it's blowing 25, it's almost impossible to get anywhere. I'd rather spend my time fishing than running."

Jon Bondy

"I found some good fish, just not a lot of numbers, and I didn't catch a good mixture of all different sizes. I'm pretty much catching them in the areas I caught them in past years. But I haven't been able to expand upon that, and that's been troublesome for me. I know where the guys did well last year in Dunkirk, but I'm not one to move in on guys' stuff.

Photo: ESPN Outdoors Kevin VanDam leads the Angler of the Year race and there's no reason to think he won't have another solid event.

Paul Hirosky

"I didn't really practice at all on Monday. I only stayed out until 10:00 or 11:00. It was kind of rough and I didn't want to beat up myself and my equipment. Yesterday was a good day, but definitely not a great day. And today was pretty much the same thing as Monday.

"I don't know, though, because I didn't really stick around one area to see if any of my spots had schools of fish on them or not. It seems to me the fish are more scattered and not schooled up good like last year. Some guys may have that, but I certainly don't. I have to work my way up to a decent limit.

"Hopefully the wind doesn't blow too hard. Last year I had a real strong tournament, but we had a rough day and I couldn't drift a flat I had. If the wind lays down I should have a better tournament. If it's really bad out there, it'll be hard for me to put up numbers."

Alton Jones

"I'm going to say that, for what we're used to here, it's a little sub-par. I don't know if my practice was bad, or the fishing's just a little tougher, and I haven't spoken with very many guys, but last year you could run around and catch 3- and 4-pounders wherever you went. This year is seems that size of fish is at a premium.

"Last year 15 pounds a day didn't do very well. This year I'd say 15 pounds a day will do okay. I may be wrong.

"I'm going to make a medium run. I'm staying within 20 miles. A lot of it depends on the weather. When Edwin won, he made a pretty big run. I made a real monster run one day last year and it ended up burning me."

Top 10 To Watch

With the above factors in mind and more, here's BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch at this event. In no particular order, they are:

1. Kevin VanDam – The world's most dangerous angler loves Lake Erie, loves smallmouths, and has everything in his corner for the AOY title.

2. Paul Hirosky – Qualified for the Elite Series by scoring big on Lake Erie several years ago, and led last year's event and went on to finish 8th. Wasn't glowing about his practice, but that seldom matters.

3. John Murray – Fished a few hundred yards outside the launch harbor last year and finished 3rd. One of the best deep-water sticks on the tour. Didn't have a stellar practice either, but still has his stuff from last year.

Photo: BassFan Kota Kiriyama finished 2nd here last year with a long run.

5. Tim Horton – His near-last finish here last year isn't a reliable indicator, since he missed most of practice after he won Champlain. Gets the nod this year because he again brought a walleye boat, so should be able to run where others won't dare.

6. Dean Rojas – Spent some time here learning before the cutoff and is fishing well. Also has an outside shot at AOY.

7. Rick Morris – Has years and years of Erie experience. Lost his bite last year when the lake slicked off and finished 12th. Has a sound understanding of how the lake works.

8. Edwin Evers – Put in a hardcore practice – he was on the water from dawn to dusk on Monday when so many others got chased off the water – and spent a lot of time checking his old stuff. Will it play again?

9. Terry Butcher – Went toe-to-toe with brother-in-law Evers during practice. Still seems to have strong stuff and finished 4th here last year.

10. Kota Kiriyama – Kota fished past Dunkirk and finished 2nd last year. He was a regular in the Northern Opens and knows Erie well.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Daily weigh-ins and launches (Thursday–Sunday) take place at the NFTA Boat Harbor, 1111 Fuhrman Rd., Buffalo. Launches begin at 8 a.m. ET and weigh-ins begin at 5 p.m. through the 4 days of competition. They are free and open to the public.

BASS's outdoors expo will begin Saturday and Sunday at 2 p.m. ET. and will include the Toyota Prove It Tour, live music by Aqueous on Sunday, Lowrance product demos and other merchandise and products from BASS sponsors.

Saturday's activities at the Empire Chase include a Berkley Beginner fishing class at 3:15 p.m. and a "Boat Performance with Skeeter" class at 3:45 p.m. Fans can talk to the Elite pros during "Ask the Experts" at Bassmaster University, set for 4:15 p.m.

Weather Forecast

Here's the forecast for the tournament days. For more weather information, including satellite and radar imagery, visit OutdoorsFanWeather.com.

> Thurs, July 31 – Mostly Sunny – 81°/65°
- Wind: variable up to W/SW at 16 mph

> Fri, August 1 – Mostly Sunny – 78°/67°
- Wind: From the W at 12 mph

> Sat, August 2 – Isolated T-Storms – 78°/65°
- Wind: From the W at 11 mph

> Sun, August 3 – Mostly Sunny – 80°/67°
- Wind: From the W at 10 mph

Notable

> John Murray got off the water a little early today at the Erie/Niagara Bassmaster Elite Series and filed his practice report. He caught the biggest smallmouth of his life yesterday, but overall, feels weights will be a little lighter overall this year. For his full report, click here to go On Tour With the BassFan Big Sticks.