Mild Winter Has Cherokee A Little Off

By John Johnson
BassFan Senior Editor

The 12th season of the Bassmaster Elite Series gets under way this week at a venue the circuit hasn't visited before – Cherokee Lake in east Tennessee. Unfortunately, the fishing won't be quite what many had hoped for when the event was announced last fall.

The region has experienced an abnormally mild winter, which has seemingly resulted in the bass doing whatever they want instead of what they should be doing during the second week of February. Compounding matters, the derby looks like it will start on a brutally cold and windy day that could make it extremely difficult to fish offshore, which is where the majority of the bass are currently residing.

"It's tough as nails out here," said Brandon Card, one of several Elite competitors who lives in the vicinity. "I keep telling everybody that this is actually a really good lake, but this is the toughest I've ever seen it at this time of year.

"There's a ton of fish in here and they should be biting, but they're just so scattered out. We haven't really had a winter, so there's not really a concentration of fish doing any one thing. It's just crazy that this happens when the Elite Series rolls into town. If we'd had this tournament at this same time last year, it would've been a smash-fest."

Before delving deeper into the bite, here's some info about the lake itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake name: Cherokee
> Type of water: Highland reservoir impounding the Holston River
> Surface acres: 28,780
> Primary structure/cover: Lots of rock (everything from pea gravel to boulders) brush piles, docks, manmade objects
> Average depth: 45 feet
> Species: Largemouths, smallmouths and spotted bass
> Length limit: 15 inches for largemouth and smallmouth, 12 inches for spots
> Reputation: A lake that features both numbers and quality, with its smallmouth status having been enhanced in recent years
> Primary forage: Shad, crawdads, alewives
> Weather: Extremely cold on day 1, then resuming a warming trend thereafter
> Water temp: 46 to 52 degrees
> Water visibility/color: Clear to lightly stained/4 feet in some places
> Water level: Normal winter pool (far below actual full pool)
> Fish in: 1 to 50 feet
> Fish phase: Winter
> Primary patterns: Jerkbaits, crankbaits, dropshots, jigs (traditional and bladed), shaky-heads
> Winning weight: 68 pounds (4 days)
> Cut weight (Top 50 after 2 days): 26 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 2 for Lake Cherokee
> Biggest factors: Will the shallow-water option still be viable in the wake of the day-1 cold front?
> Wild card: An isolated deep-water spot that's loaded with 3- to 4-pounders

Here's a good look at Cherokee (depth contours included) courtesy of Navionics:

Frigid Start

Old Man Winter may have avoided the Knoxville area for most of the past couple of months, but he'll make an appearance on day 1 before going back into hiding again. The air temperature will plummet from a high of 66 on the final practice day to 40 on the initial competition day and a stiff northwest wind is expected to reach double-digit velocity. Overnight, the mercury will bottom out at an icy 23 degrees.

After that, the high temperature is forecast to climb 15 degrees on day 2 and another 13 on top of that (to a balmy 68) by day 4.

The water temps, which are normally in the low 40s at this time of year, are currently in the high 40s to low 50s, even reaching 55 in the backs of some of the pockets. Consequently, some bass have been hanging around in the shallows.

Will those bank-dwellers still be hanging around after the short-lived cold front arrives? It's hard to say.

"I'm thinking those shallow fish are not apt to be there when the front moves in and it cools down," said guide David Berry of Smokies Angling Adventures. "There just won't be enough shallow fish to hold up. That's why I think it's going to be won in deeper water."

Will Brown Fish Dominate?

The lake is home to largemouth, smallmouth and spotted bass, but the spots are small and usually inconsequential. Berry said that the smallmouths have become more and more prevalent in winning tournament bags over the past 5 years or so.

"It's been kind of a hidden secret of the locals – there's just tons of smallmouth, and some good ones," he said. "The local tournaments have been seeing 17-, 18- and 19-pound bags and just about all of them have been smallmouth-dominated. I've been catching 4-pounders in 3 feet of water and 3- to 4-pounders out 35 to 40 feet deep."

He expects most of the best action to occur on a 15- to 20-mile stretch of the main lake from German Creek down to the dam.

"That's generally where the better bags of smallmouth come from."

Standard pre-spawn tactics (jerkbaits, jigs, dropshots, etc.) should prevail. The Damiki Armor Shad, a small-profile soft jerkbait, is reportedly a local staple at this time of year.

Field Notes

Following are practice notes from a few of the anglers who'll compete this week.

Micah Frazier
"Practice hasn't been too good. I spent the first day deep and the next day kind of shallower and it seemed like they both suck, to be honest. I'll probably lean toward the deeper deal – I feel like that's safer because I don't know what the cold weather will do to them.

"I've caught all smallmouths and it seems like when you get a bite it's a good one. You just don't get many bites and when you do, it seems random.

"I feel like a lot of the places I've found are real obvious – community hole-type stuff. It's hard to find anything off the beaten path that everybody and their mother won't see on their chart and go over there and hit."

Justin Lucas
"It hasn't been good at all for me. I think the fish are more spread out than they should be. We all expected them to mostly be deep, but there's some deep and some shallow – they're not concentrated and grouped up good. It's not really hard to get bites, but it's hard to get the 2 1/2- and 3-pounders you're going to need.

"I've caught a little bit of a mix, probably half and half (largemouths and smallmouths). I'm kind of torn about what to do. I don't think a 1-day cold front is really going to affect these fish – it's east Tennessee and they're used to the cold, just like they are in the Ozark lakes. I'm thinking they'll big shallow even when it's cold, but I could be wrong."

Brandon Card
"I wish I could tell you that I've got everything figured out, but I don't. I'm not trying to be a 'Negative Nancy,' but one random cold day really doesn't help the situation. We've been in kind of a warming trend and when it's warm the fish move up shallow, but that cold front might knock those fish in the head and scatter them out even worse.

"I'm trying to keep an open mind and I'm not all-in on one particular thing. I still have some key stretches that I'm not going to hit until the tournament – I've stayed off what I think is the really good stuff, but I've fished a lot of good areas too and haven't caught much. I keep going from shallow to deep and back again trying to get something figured out.

"If things were the way they should be, this could've been a really fun tournament."

Ish Monroe
"I think it's going to be better than a lot of these guys are saying it's going to be. There's going to be a lot of 11- and 12-pound bags. A 15-inch fish weighs 2 1/4 to 2 1/2 pounds and guys always catch them. It might take 14 or 15 pounds a day to crack the Top 10, but everybody's going to have 12.

"I'm mixing it up – I chose to fish both deep and shallow. What the weather's going to do to any of them, I don't have a clue. I've been in situations where it was really cold and the shallow fish bit.

"I haven't been able to get on the Damiki thing – they'll follow the bait, but they won't bite it. I've been mixing in other baits and catching a few. It must be the deal, though, because I was doing a seminar at a tackle store and everybody who's fishing the tournament was in there buying them. Maybe the fish have seen it enough now that they just shy away from it.

"It's not going to be an easy tournament, but when is it ever easy? Even when they're biting really good, it isn't easy."

Top 10 to Watch

With the above in mind and more, here (in no particular order) are BassFan's recommendations for the Top 10 to watch in this event.

1. Brent Ehrler – Though perhaps not a fan of cold weather, the Californian knows how to mine bass from deep, clear water. His patience when fishing with lightly weighted baits over suspended bass could serve him well again.

2. Casey Ashley – The Lake Hartwell Classic winner will no doubt have a fistful of homemade under-spin jigs at the ready and certainly won’t be intimidated by inclement weather. This one isn’t as close to home as the 2015 Classic was, but maybe close enough.

3. Aaron Martens – Deep, clear, chilly water almost spells dropshot, and few are as good as Martens with that finesse technique. Though not his favorite way to fish, his skill with his electronics and in coaxing reluctant bass to bite could carry him to the Top 12.

4. Hank Cherry – Proved his prowess with a jerkbait in cold water at the 2013 Grand Lake Classic, and lives not far from Cherokee. It could be he finds the fish looking up to his offerings once again, using the technique that he considers to be his primary fishing strength.

5. Ott DeFoe – This one is almost in Defoe’s back yard, only 13 miles north of his beloved Douglas Lake. The two should fish similarly. Tight-wiggling crankbaits may allow him to find shallow fish that others have overlooked.

6. Jacob Wheeler – New to the Elite Series but already with one victory to his credit (BassFest 2015 at Lake Chickamauga), Wheeler has the chops to fish well in deep, clear, water. His Indiana roots and experience at places like Lake Lanier, along with multiple visits to Beaver Lake with FLW, give him a vast storehouse of knowledge and confidence.

7. Mike McClelland – The Arkansas native registered a 2014 Elite Series win at Table Rock, which fishes a lot like Cherokee, according to some anglers familiar with both lakes. Give him his signature jerkbait, some cool, clear water, stir in some light breezes and watch him fill the livewell.

8. David Williams – Williams is something of a darkhorse pick, but he knows the lake well and feels good fishing here. Fond memories, including several BFL high finishes on Cherokee, will no doubt make him feel comfortable and ready to rumble.

9. Brandon Card – Card lives almost as close to Cherokee as DeFoe. The scenario isn't what he expected, but the fact that fish are widely dispersed could play to his advantage, as he knows a lot of places to look for them.

10. Skylar Hamilton – An Elite Series rookie via his 3rd-place finish in the Central Open points in 2016 (including a Classic-qualifying win at the Arkansas River) Hamilton lives just minutes from Cherokee and is very familiar with the fishery. He would be well-situated for a wintertime tournament on a lake he knows better than most of his competition. He knows it won’t be easy, but this could be his best chance all year for a high finish.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

Anglers will launch at 7:15 a.m. ET each day at Cherokee Lake Dam and TVA Boat Ramp (2895 North Highway 92, Jefferson City, Tenn.) Weigh-ins on days 1 and 2 will take place at the same location at 3:30 p.m.

On days 3 and 4, the weigh-ins will move to the Knoxville Convention Center and get under way at 4 p.m.

Notable

> Brent Chapman tried to get on a deep bite during practice, but was unsuccessful and will likely spend the majority of day 1 fishing shallow water. To read his practice recap, click here to visit Pro View Reports.

Weather Forecast

> Thurs., Feb. 9 – A.M. Clouds/P.M. Sun - 40°/23°
- Wind: From the NW at 16 mph

> Fri., Feb. 10 – Sunny - 55°/42°
- Wind: From the SW at 10 mph

> Sat., Feb. 11 – Showers - 59°/56°
- Wind: From the SW at 12 mph

> Sun., Feb. 12 – Cloudy - 69°/49°
- Wind: From the SW at 13 mph