Expect A Different, Tougher Guntersville This Week

By Todd Ceisner
BassFan Editor

Bye, flip flops. Hello, hoodies and parkas.

For the first time since 2010, the FLW Tour season will get started somewhere other than in the warm surroundings of the Sunshine State.

For the past few years, FLW Tour anglers have lobbied hard for an expanded schedule. Last year, FLW obliged with two Open-format tournaments after the Forrest Wood Cup. This year, a seventh event was added to the Tour schedule, but with the Cup locked in for August, it meant an earlier start to the season than what is customary.

Rather than pursue bass that are in the midst of or about to commence their annual spawning ritual at one of Florida’s bountiful fisheries, the competitors in the 165-boat field this week will span out across prolific Lake Guntersville in northeastern Alabama in what many were hoping would be a mid-winter tournament reminiscent of the 2014 Bassmaster Classic that also took place in February at the TVA impoundment.

This marks the earliest start to an FLW Tour season since 2006 and it offers the potential for a Tennessee River slugfest to kick off the year. There have been rumblings, though, that the lake is beginning to trend downward as it perhaps finally is showing the effects of non-stop fishing pressure and harvesting.

The general consensus this week is that it’ll be more of a “Guntersville grind” rather than a stream of prodigious stringers being brought to the scales. Sure, there will be big fish caught and plenty of 20-pound bags or bigger, but with a cold front set to follow a brief warming trend that hovered over practice, it’s tough to tell how the fish will react come the weekend. Consistency will be central to anyone’s success this week.

“I think when people saw Guntersville on the schedule, everybody got exited, but the truth is it’s still winter,” said longtime pro Pete Ponds.

But the water temperatures are more reflective of early spring as a string of 70-degree days several weeks ago helped drive the water temps into the low 50s.

By most accounts, the lush grass that Guntersville is known for is still prolific throughout the lake – it’s been a mild winter and as a result, the majority of grass never died off – and it’s been difficult for competitors to pinpoint significant grass edges, which typically make for high-percentage bite areas. A tried-and-true Guntersville technique is to park your boat off the edge and cast into the grass in hopes of luring bass out of the vegetation. That’s been a tough scenario to duplicate this week simply due to the vast swaths of grass.

Eelgrass has also established a foothold on the upper end of the lake and combined with the already-prevalent hydrilla and milfoil, it’s given the fish plenty of green stuff to spread out in.

One alternative to a grass-centric pattern will be causeways and bridges, which have been clogged with boats in practice and figure to be among the most popular spots on the lake. With the current that’s being generated by the dam gates being opened, these will be hotly contested areas all week long.

“I’m sure there will be all sorts of fun discussions about people’s lineage and whatnot,” joked Florida pro Peter Thliveros.

Before getting into more about the bite, here's a rundown of the lake itself:

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake name: Guntersville
> Type of water: Lowland reservoir fed by the Tennessee River
> Surface acres: Approximately 70,000
> Primary structure/cover: Grass (hydrilla, milfoil, eelgrass), causeways/bridges, creek channels, humps, riprap, boat docks, shell beds, laydowns
> Average depth: Roughly 15 feet
> Species: Largemouths, spotted bass
> Reputation: Big-bass factory that sustains itself despite an incredible amount of fishing pressure.
> Primary forage: Shad
> Weather: Warmed up after a chilly start to practice, but clouds and rain are expected for tournament days along with a cold front on Friday.
> Water temp: Upper 40s to low 50s
> Water visibility/color: Some stain in upper reaches and clearer toward lower end
> Water level: Full pool
> Fish in: 0 to 15 feet
> Fish phase: Winter/pre-spawn
> Primary patterns: Crankbaits (lipless and lipped), swimbaits, jigs, vibrating jigs.
> Winning weight: 75 pounds (4 days)
> Cut weight (Top 20 after 2 days): 34 pounds
> Check weight (Top 50 after 2 days): 26 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 3 for Guntersville
> Biggest factors: Big fish. This lake’s got ‘em and one (or more) per day will be a huge difference-maker.
> Wild card: Whomever can get on the right bridge or causeway at the right time.

Here's a good look at Guntersville (depth contours included), courtesy of the folks at Navionics:

Adjustment Period

The only other time FLW staged a four-day Tour event at Guntersville in February was in 2009, when David Fritts won with a 83-03 total, thanks to a dual pattern of cranking riprap and dragging a football jig on a main-river ledge.

That 1-2 punch may work again this week, but amassing 80-plus pounds could be a tall task. Fish aren’t grouped up for the most part and some competitors reported getting less than three keeper bites a day in practice.

Former Tour winner Casey Martin now guides at Guntersville full time (he’s actually competing this week as a co-angler) and he believes conditions are pretty much lining up with seasonal norms. Martin said the slower bite may be a lingering result of the persistent high water the lake saw much of last year.

“We had some monster floods and they were pulling 200,000 cfs (cubic feet per second) and there were a lot of fish people couldn’t fish for,” he said. “People were saying, ‘The fishery’s done,’ but I think it was just the weird weather conditions and people didn’t adjust well.”

The current flow this week has been brisk and is expected to remain in the 45,000 to 50,000 range through Sunday. Depending on the wind direction, it can significantly impact how efficiently anglers can pick apart areas, not to mention it alters how the fish can set up in the current.

“Somebody is going to have to adjust day to day,” Martin added. “If a guy can get on a corner of a bridge and have it to himself, he can win, but I don’t think that’s likely to happen. A guy like (Bryan) Thrift could get on a bridge and catch 27 (pounds) one day and then catch 17 out of the eelgrass the next and then survive from there. I did that in an FLW Series here a few years ago. I almost won it junk-fishing.

“The way it’s setting up, the fish are moving up and somebody who’s versatile enough has a chance to take out the bridges. You have to have multiple areas for different things. You can’t sit on eelgrass too long with too many boats around.”

Cause(ways) And Effect

Martin is also convinced this tournament will be won off a bridge or causeway or a combination of the two. Bridges, small and large, have become the new ledges at this time of year at Guntersville in that competitors will have to endure crowding and try to rotate to the next one at the right time, hoping another competitor didn’t just wipe it clean.

“Everybody knows about the causeways and bridges,” Martin said. “They will be a huge factor. I think it will be won off a bridge and you’ll see a lot of checks come from the grass.”

There are several keys to being successful when targeting bridges and causeways, Martin added.

“It can change day to day and a guy who does well can sit on them all day,” he said. “They’ll either do well or bomb. If they’re there, they’ll bite. There’s usually an early-morning bite on them and then it tapers off, then picks back up around noon or later in the day. Everybody knows about them. On Sunday, it blew pretty hard and there were no boats on the main lake, but every causeway had multiple boats on it.”

Martin thinks the warmer water temperatures should entice more fish to bite this week. The keeper-quality fish are weighing heavy. On average, Martin says a 16-incher should weigh around 3 pounds.

“It’s usually cooler this time of year, but it’s been warm and with it in the 50s, that’s a good temperature,” he said. “I think they know it’s winter and it’s time to start feeding.”

Notes from the Field

Following are practice notes from a few of the anglers who'll be competing this week.

Pete Ponds
“My biggest problem is I’m too negative. I’m trying to keep from being that way. It was a very tough practice for me. I feel strongly the bite is getting better and I feel like day 1 will be much better, but as the week progresses, it’ll get harder. Our best day should be Thursday.

“It’s been extremely tough and it seems like you have to be in the right place at the right time. It’s pretty common knowledge what people are doing. You just have to keep on chunking and winding.

“The grass has died off some since I was here in pre-practice, but there is still plenty and a lot of eelgrass. It’s possibly starting to dominate the shallows. I think we’re a little early as far as this lake producing some good fish. It’s still January on the calendar.”

Matt Arey
“I’ve only fished here three times, but I found conditions to be as bad as I’ve ever seen it. The lake’s not near as good as it was 4 or 5 years ago. It still has a lot of fish in it, but there are more non-keepers than I’ve ever seen. Maybe it’s the cycle the lake is in, I’m not sure. I think we’ll still see some good bags, but nothing like 20 guys over 20 pounds.

“If I catch a limit of keepers I’ll come to weigh-in with my chest pumped out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see half the field Thursday come in without a limit. There are still big ones here, but I don’t think we’ll see the quantity of big bags we’ve seen in the past. I’m going to grind it out and keep moving.

“I’m spread out from the city of Guntersville to past Roseberry Creek. I’ve fished six or seven bridges and couldn’t get it going. Somebody will catch them that way, but it won’t be my go-to option.”

Ramie Colson Jr.
“It’s been kind of a mild winter and I really anticipated a better bite before getting here, but after three days of practice I need another week to figure out where to catch a limit at. I think it’s declined a little, but you’ll still see four or five guys catch them good. I didn’t think it’d be that big of deal to catch five fish a day, but it’s proven me wrong for 3 days in a row.

“There is so much grass and everywhere you go you can’t find a defined edge unless you’re on the river. I’ve fished in and out and can’t find anything. There’s so much of it, you can’t pinpoint one little spot. I was told before the cutoff that if you catch one in one spot, you can catch more than one off that section, but I’ve proven that wrong so far.

“I caught a total of three keepers in 3 days. The water’s a little dirty for a swimbait to be effective. It’s been a tough one so far. I have to regroup and just go with another day of practice Thursday.”

Bradley Dortch
“It hasn’t been very good. Sunday, I had one swat at a Rat-L-Trap and that was it all day. I caught three keepers Monday and Tuesday, I probably had 14 or 15 pounds. It got a little better, but the weather also got a lot better, too. You could fish like you wanted to fish.

“It’s not been cold enough up here and they haven’t had enough rain so there’s grass everywhere. It’s been hard to find a hard edge of grass and when you get one bite, you don’t get another bite. It seems like the fish are spread out. If somebody finds a big school all together I’ll be surprised.

“It’s going to be tough. I think 11 to 12 pounds (per day) will make a check. You can get bit on a Trap, a ChatterBait and a jig, but there’s no consistency. When you catch one, though, they’re thick and fat, which tells me they’re a long way from spawning even though the water is getting into the 50s.”

Peter Thliveros
“The fishing is really off for this body of water. I’m not surprised. The lake has seen so much pressure for the past 10 years. It never gets a break. The fishing is not what it should be here for this time of year by any stretch. Compared to the last time I fished it this time of year, it’s way off.

“I think it’ll get better as the week goes on. We have a warming trend going on and that never hurts. I’d expect to see more fish than what people are saying, but I was surprised at the lack of bites and the size of the fish I’m catching. I don’t recall catching that many small fish here – all under 12 inches.

“It looks like it’ll fish really crowded, but the way it’s fishing, you can put your trolling motor down and go in one direction until weigh-in and have the same success as doing something else.”

Top 10 To Watch

With the above in mind and more, here, in no particular order, is BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch at this event:

1. Scott Canterbury – After a stellar finish to 2016, he kicked off ’17 with a Top-10 at the Harris Chain Southern Open. He’s in a groove unlike any other in his career.

2. Alex Davis – Can probably launch his boat and drive to some of his best spots with his eyes closed – that’s how well he knows Guntersville. He’s always a threat to win on his home lake (he’s won two BFLs and an FLW Series there). Opened the ‘16 season with a runner-up showing at Okeechobee, but faded with three triple-digit finishes.

3. Bryan Thrift – Possibly the best all-around, fish-the-moment pro in the game right now. He has earned a paycheck in the last six FLW Tour events on the Tennessee River and has three career Top-25s at Guntersville.

4. Michael Neal – Is this the year he finally cracks the winner’s circle? The Tennessee native sure hopes so, especially after collecting five Top-10s last year. His TVA experience will be a big deal this week.

5. Wesley Strader – Kicks off his 21st season on the FLW Tour at a venue that’s produced two runner-up finishes in FLW Series competition.

6. Mark Rose – Regardless of time of year, he’s always a contender on the Tennessee River. Bypassed Elite Series invite to return to FLW Tour for his 19th season. Has four career Top-10s in FLW events at Guntersville.

7. Jonathan Henry – Like Davis, Henry guides frequently at Guntersville and is considered among the local favorites. This will be his first Tour event from the front of the boat after his battle with synovial sarcoma, a rare form of soft-tissue cancer.

8. Buddy Gross – Pulled off a surprise win last year at Pickwick and has some momentum going from a decent showing at the Harris Chain Southern Open and a Top-10 at the Lake Okeechobee FLW Series over the past 2 weeks. Has fared well in multiple-day events at Guntersville in the past.

9. Andy Morgan – Mr. Consistency begins his pursuit of a record fourth Angler of the Year title on his favorite body of water – the Tennessee River. Has cashed a check in 26 of the last 27 full-field FLW Tour events.

10. Brad Knight – He’s right at home on the Tennessee River, but all of his
top-10s in FLW competition, including one at Guntersville, have come in April or later. The ’15 Cup champion will be looking to bounce back from a 63rd-place finish in points a year ago.

Notable

> Jay Yelas still hasn't found what he's looking for at Guntersville – a limit fr 4- to 5-pounders. Learn how the rest of his practice went by clicking here to check out BassFan's Pro View Report.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

> Anglers will launch at 7 a.m. CT all four days from Guntersville City Harbor (201 Blount Ave., Guntersville, Ala.). Weigh-ins on days 1 and 2 will get under way at 3 p.m. at Guntersville City Harbor (same address). Weigh-ins on days 3 and 4 will start at 4 p.m. at Guntersville City Harbor (same address).

Weather Forecast

> Thurs., Feb. 2 – Chance of Rain - 56°/44°
- Wind: From the N at 5 to 10 mph

> Fri., Feb. 3 – Chance of Rain - 51°/36°
- Wind: From the NNW at 5 to 10 mph

> Sat., Feb. 4 – Partly Cloudy - 57°/46°
- Wind: From the ENE at 5 to 10 mph

> Sun., Feb. 5 – Rain - 59°/46°
- Wind: From the SW at 8 to 12 mph