By Todd Ceisner
BassFan Editor


Even central Florida hasn’t been immune to the silly southern winter weather that dumped nearly a foot of snow in parts of Alabama last week. Temperatures around Kissimmee got down to as low as 34 degrees on Friday, Feb. 20, which happened to be the first day of the Bassmaster Classic at Lake Hartwell in northwestern South Carolina where the mercury nearly plummeted into single digits.

Ever since, the temperature’s rapidly been on the rise around Lake Toho and with a warming trend settling in this week, along with a full moon on Thursday, it could set up the FLW Tour season opener to be a slugfest, with the emphasis on "could."

The trouble is there are a slew of factors working against the anglers as they try to figure out where to maximize their opportunities this week.

A bunch of rain fell last Saturday and the resulting current moving through the Kissimmee Chain has hurt sight-fishing prospects as the water has taken on a real tannic hue to it. The falling water also may be delaying some egg-laden females’ arrival in their spawning areas and some believe the relative instability in the water conditions is likely what’s holding them back.

“We’ve had more rain this winter than I can recall in 25 years of guiding down here,” said former Tour pro Art Ferguson III, who guides all over central Florida in the winter. “There’s a lot of moving water and any time that happens on the Kissimmee chain, you will find fish using that current.”

Anglers were treated to temperatures in the 80s throughout practice and the water temperature is climbing accordingly. The moon cycle seems to be right in line with what should be a lights-out spawning tournament, but anglers are mixed as to whether any such fireworks will materialize. Expectations were high, but the instability seems to be holding things back.

Those in the field who arrived last weekend expecting to draw on their experience at Lake Okeechobee have been sorely mistaken. The two fisheries are tangibly different, simply because Okeechobee is so much more vast.

“It’s like night and day,” Ferguson added. “At Okeechobee, it’s so much bigger and so many more things can happen with so many more variations. There are bigger fish around Toho – there will probably be more 10-pounders caught this week – but both lakes are fishing hard right now. Everything’s been so unstable. We’ve hardly had more than two days in a row before a new front comes through. Unstable has been the key word around here.”

The Kissimmee Chain will always have the big-fish mystique that comes with being the place where Dean Rojas sacked a 45-02 limit during the 2001 Bassmaster Top 150. While no one is betting on Rojas’ record being challenged this week, the warm-up should allow for those in the right areas at the right time to take advantage of the conditions. It’s highly likely a small handful of stringers in the 25-plus pound range will show up on Thursday, but the true measure will be who can follow that up with a similar effort and still have more to go back to for the weekend.

Last Saturday, a high school team sacked 29-03, including a pair of 8-pounders, at Toho to win the TBF/Florida State High School Fishing championship. A day later, six more 8-pounders or better were caught in a tournament put on by Gambler Lures. The winning team had 29-06.

This event kicks off basically a new era for the FLW Tour with a smaller field (154 boats are expected), fewer FLW sponsor-wrapped boats and more angler-friendly guidelines for sponsor promotion. It also marks the return of Stacey King and Clark Wendlandt, both of whom had to withdraw from the 2014 season due to significant health issues. At the same time, some pros who started their careers in FLW events and would likely be considered favorites this week won’t be competing as they’ve opted to focus on the upcoming Elite Series season – Koby Kreiger, Randall Tharp and Brett Hite among them.

Before getting into more about the bite, here's the lowdown on the lake itself.

BassFan Lake Profile

> Lake Name: Lake Tohopekaliga (Toho), plus Cypress, Kissimmee, and Hatchineha
> Type of Water: Shallow Florida natural lakes
> Surface Acres: Approx. 67,000 acres among the four lakes
> Primary structure/cover: Grass and vegetation (many types)
> Primary forage: Shad, bream, grass shrimp, shiners
> Average depth: 5 feet
> Species: Largemouths only
> Length limit: 12 inches
> Reputation: Record-setting fishery with legendary potential, but quirky and apt to turn off due to weather
> Weather: Warming up into mid-80s for Thursday, but clouds will move in Friday and stick around for weekend
> Water level: Varies among the lakes, but variance is not extreme. Locals have said it’s higher than it’s been in years, but others said it’s lower than it was at the Southern Open last month.
> Fish in: All depths
> Fish phase: Pre-spawn and spawn
> Primary patterns: Flipping, finesse, worms, bladed jigs, crankbaits, finesse jigs, swimbaits
> Winning weight: 79 pounds (4 days)
> Cut weight (Top 10): 35 pounds
> Check weight (Top 60): 23 pounds
> Fishing quality (1=poor, 5=great): 3 for Toho
> Biggest factors: Groups of fish – are they out there? Also the big bite.
> Biggest decision: Which lake? Also, finesse or power?
> Wildcard: The big bite – anyone can set into an 8- to 10-pounder at anytime.

Roller Coaster Ride

In examining results from previous multi-day events at Toho, it’s fairly clear that an angler can go from hero to zero in no time. Catching a 20-pound, or in some cases a 30-pound, stringer one day can sometimes lead to much different results the following day. Such is life when chasing bass in Florida.

There was plenty of evidence of this at the Bassmaster Southern Open in mid January. Andrew Slegona was the talk of the tournament with his 31-02 bag on day 1, but he managed just five keepers over the final two days that barely weighed 10 pounds. He still finished seventh, but if he had caught limits of 2-pounders on days 2 and 3, he would’ve challenged for the win.

Slegona was just one of many anglers in the Open who experienced the typical ebbs and flows of the Kissimmee Chain. Things can change in an instant when dealing with moody Florida bass. The faintest of cold fronts will turn them off while the slightest bit of sun and stability will put them in the right places.



JT Kenney
Photo: JT Kenney

JT Kenney spent a bunch of time on the Kissimmee Chain prior to off limits getting dialed in for the season opener.

“It’s not going to be the same in the tournament (as it’s been in practice),” said Dave Lefebre, who’s kicking off his 13th year on the FLW Tour this week. “Things will happen and I don’t think they’ve happened yet.”

Some liken what can happen with even the slightest upgrade in conditions to a light switch being flipped on, causing the fish to change course in an instant.

“I’ve heard people say that,” Lefebre said. “You’ll catch little ones one day and show up the next and they’re all 5-pounders. I had that happen at Okeechobee one year. I’ve seen it happen over night. It’s going to happen here, no doubt. I just don’t know where.”

Work of Art

This winter has been a series of starts and stops when it comes to cold fronts and warm fronts, says Ferguson, who also operates his Art of Fishing guide service at Lake St. Clair during the summer months.

“This season has been abnormally cooler,” Ferguson said. “It hasn’t been really cold, but much cooler on average. We’ve had a lot of 40-degree nights and 60-degree days. Everything’s been a little off and we’ve only had one real cold front about the time of the Classic. That kind of shut the fish down.

“The scenario is building up for this to be one of those great Florida tournaments. There hasn’t been a major spawn yet and (last Friday) was probably the third or fourth coldest day of the year. With all that said, the guys who can find them will probably find some big bass on beds. That will be a key factor for this tournament.”

For those unable to pinpoint (or actually see) spawners, Ferguson thinks there are still plenty of fish away from the bank grouped up still in the pre-spawn mode.

“It could also be the opposite. It’s been so cool, the fish aren’t moving up,” he said. “Instead, they’re staged up deeper and on the outside edges on intricate little things. There will be some schooling fish because these fish move in tight schools all winter long. It’s not just one here or there. They’re schooled up as good as I’ve seen in some time. You could find piles of them.”

He was quick to point out that despite the favorable weather pattern, it won’t automatically mean the century mark is in play this week or that somebody will need two weigh-in bags to tote their limit to stage one day. It’s possible, he says, but not likely.

“The bad thing we’ve had going on was cooler, unstable weather, but the fishing’s been abnormally good for the abnormally bad conditions,” he said. “We’re going to have a warming trend, though. The year (Dean) Rojas set the weight record here, that’s what happened for that tournament. That’s when everything went crazy. They’re hitting it as good as they could be time-wise.

“It’s going to be tough tournament for a lot of guys. It’s not like fish will jump in the boat. The guys will have to pay attention to the details of where and what the fish are doing.”

Notes from the Field

Following are practice notes from a few of the anglers who'll be competing this week.

Clent Davis
“Compared to my expectations, it’s been nothing like I thought it would be. I think the fishing was better in the Open. This warm trend is usually what makes it good, but maybe these fish have spawned more than I thought they had. At the same time, maybe they haven’t. My confidence is at a 0 out of 10 right now. Without a doubt, this is the worst practice I’ve ever had. I don’t even know where to catch a bass. I can’t even catch a 12-incher.

FLW/Brian Lindberg
Photo: FLW/Brian Lindberg

Brad Knight says the fishing at Toho is much tougher this time around compared to the Bassmaster Southern Open.

“I don’t have a clue where they’re at spawning-wise. I’m as lost as I’ve ever been coming into a bass tournament. If I get in the right area, though, that could be a good thing. It was tough in the Open, but at least you could catch them. I thought it would be an absolute blast coming back down here. It will be for somebody, but not for me, at least not this year.”

Chad Grigsby
“On Sunday, I didn’t get on them very good. I got a bunch of bites, but nothing impressive. On Monday, I got into a good wad of fish and caught a couple big ones, but from about 10 o’clock on it was a bite here and there and it stunk the rest of the day. Tuesday, I spent the morning trying to figure out what was going on and I wound up finding some more.

“You could fish some good-looking stretches that all look the same for a mile and then settle into an area and that’s where the fish would be. That’s Florida fishing. I fished a lot of stuff that looked really good Tuesday and never had a bite, but then got on another stretch that looked exactly the same and they were there. I think it’s going to be good. I don’t know about the stuff I’m fishing. I may land five out of 10. It’s going to be hard to land them.”

Dave Lefebre
“I usually run to Kissimmee, but I haven’t had a chance to do that and I certainly don’t like what I’ve found so far. I will say that I feel good about being committed, though. The lake is not very big, but I found some big bedders and I heard more are going to be coming in. I’m wondering what might show up. We’ve had clouds and just enough wind to not see unless you’re tucked in and protected. It’s pretty hard to see very good right now and I’m pretty good at that. You can’t see the offshore stuff at all.

“I’m catching some fish that are out, but nothing more than 4-pounders. I just have an area and don’t have anywhere else to go. I haven’t even had a chance to experiment with baits yet.”

Peter Thliveros
“It’s pretty slow. It’s not the Toho I’m used to seeing and it’s not what everybody was expecting to see with the full moon. There’s no big wave of spawners and it’s not showing any indications of one coming to me. The bite is pretty much off. I don’t know why, but it is. I think there will be big stringers caught, but I don’t know how consistent that will be. The bite will change each day. The spawners will get caught on day 1 and then it’ll be just here and there.

The biggest factor we’re facing is falling water conditions. The water’s warm enough where a lot of fish may have already spawned in the warm snaps we’ve had, but the falling water is really the biggest negative factor we have. Traditionally, when you have water moving through the system, that usually triggers a bite but that’s not going on right now.

There’s an early bite, then it trails off really hard throughout the day. As far as the lakes go, one is the same as the other. You just have to find an area with fish and commit to it. It won’t be a run-and-gun type event and it won’t be a power(-fishing) tournament. I think more subtle fishing will prevail over power.”

Drew Benton
“It’s a little bit better, but not much better (than the Open). It’s still kind of tough, especially trying to get a lot of quality bites. I had what I’d call two quality bites over the first two days and Tuesday I did a lot more looking to try to see if any fish had moved up. I found a real big one so I hope she’s still there Thursday.

“To make a long story short, it’s really not been easy. I expected it to be like Okeechobee where everywhere you throw you can catch one. There are a lot more empty beds than I was expecting to see. I’m not sure why there’s not a male on every bed right now with the full moon coming. I think the person that’s going to win doesn’t have a clue they’re going to win yet. I think it’s one of those deals where you have an area with a bunch of males and the females are coming.

“Each day, I’ve had 15 or better, but that’s with a 5- or 6-pounder to go with some 2-pounders. Somebody will probably catch 30-something the first day, but staying consistent will be the big deal. It’s typical Florida. It won’t take a huge weight to win, but a big bag will move you up each day.”

Brad Knight
“It’s been a little tougher than Open practice and my Open practice wasn’t that good, which is frustrating because I was expecting it to be better than it is. People are catching big ones from what I hear, but I’m used to Okeechobee. It’s just a little tougher to go around and get some bites.

“My first day was decent and it’s gotten worse each day from there. Maybe that’s because I’m trying to cover water and find some magic place where they’re all pulled up. This could be like a light-switch deal where it goes crazy on day 1. I’m halfway expecting that and I’m halfway expecting to run around a bunch. It’s all about catching a giant at this pond to get you going in the right direction.

“I tried to look for some on beds and saw some, but I think I’ll be better off just fishing for them rather than sight-fishing for them. I’m just surprised how nice the weather got with the moon and how tough it was to get a bite. You’d think you’d catch one everywhere you go.”

Top 10 To Watch

With the above in mind and more, here, in no particular order, is BassFan's recommendation on the Top 10 to watch at this event:

1. JT Kenney – Needs a strong start to the season after missing the Cup last year. He was 54th at the Toho Open in January, but has a couple top-15 finishes on the Kissimmee Chain to his credit. He's a self-made ledge guru now, but this is his kind of fishing.

2. Andy Morgan – Until he proves us wrong, Morgan will be considered a threat to contend no matter what the calendar says or where the schedule takes him. Even in a tough-bite scenario that some are experiencing, we expect him to scratch out five keepers a day.

3. Scott Martin – Few understand how Florida bass operate better than Martin. Might be a bit out of his comfort zone not being at the Big O, but this is still his backyard.

4. Todd Auten – Quiet as a cat, he’s back at the tour level after spending 2014 cleaning up in the Southeast Rayovacs and Northern Opens. A ChatterBait lover, he’d certainly love to build upon his third-place showing in the Open two months ago.

5. Bryan Thrift – A threat every time he launches his boat, Thrift has fared pretty well in Florida over the years. He’s not shy about his aversion to flipping, so we’re betting he’ll get something else figured out – ChatterBait, anyone? – especially if the bite turns tough.

6. Van Soles – A Tour rookie this year, but no stranger to Toho. He won the Southern Open there in 2014 and will want to come out swinging at home after posting two bagels at the Classic two weeks ago.

BassFan
Photo: BassFan

Jacob Wheeler had a strong showing at his first Bassmaster Classic. Now, he'll try to conquer Florida in the season opener.

7. Scott Canterbury – Kicked off 2015 with a 13th-place showing at Toho in the Southern Open, but it’s a victory he’s after, either in a Tour event, the Cup or AOY. He’s pretty stout with a big flipping stick in his hand.

8. Jacob Wheeler – Had a solid showing (14th) at his first Classic and is itching to build on his 11th-place finish in AOY points last year. His energy and ability to piece things together on the fly can’t be ignored.

9. Chris Baumgardner – Slow and steady may win this week’s race and Baumgardner’s about as steady as they come, especially if a worm bite breaks out. He’s also pretty strong with a ChatterBait tied on.

10. Scott Suggs – The Cup is in his backyard again this year (Lake Ouachita) and after not qualifying in three of the last four years, he’s going to want to put down a solid foundation this week to build upon.

Launch/Weigh-In Info

> Anglers will launch at 7:30 a.m. ET Thursday through Saturday and at 7:45 a.m. on Sunday from Big Toho Marina (69 Lakeview Dr., Kissimmee, FL 34741). Weigh-ins on days 1 and 2 will get under way at 3 p.m. at Big Toho Marina (same address). Weigh-ins on days 3 and 4 will start at 4 p.m., also at Big Toho Marina.

Weather Forecast

> Thurs., March 5 – Mix of Sun & Clouds - 86°/65°
- Wind: From the SSW at 10 to 15 mph

> Fri., March 6 – Mix of Sun & Clouds - 75°/59°
- Wind: From the NNE at 10 to 15 mph

> Sat., March 7 – Cloudy - 72°/60°
- Wind: From the NNE at 10 to 15 mph

> Sun., March 8 – Cloudy, then Afternoon Rain - 80°/63°
- Wind: From the ENE at 5 to 10 mph

Notable

> Jay Yelas said Monday was his best day of practice and he will probably head down to Lake Kissimmee on day 1 of the FLW Tour season opener. Luke Clausen, meanwhile, is feeling optimistic after his practice session on the lake where he won the 2006 Bassmaster Classic. To check out their practice recaps, click here to read our Pro View Report.

> As part of the round of changes FLW implemented for the 2015 season. the co-angler competition will conclude after day 2 at Tour events.